PACAFI (Thursday 18 April 2024)
April 17th, 2024
SOUTHBANK 8.00 Chelmsford at 6/5
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AYR RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Tuesday 16 November 2021)
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The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for AYR on Tuesday 16 November 2021. These templates have been tailored to give historic relevance and contextual pertinence fully underpinned by some decisive numbers. This betting landscape structure provides a home base from which to work from. These templates are evolving, but are already advantageous and profitable, and available to members for a small subscription!
FAVOURITES NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS) HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS) Hurdle: 38-66 for 58% (+6.78) 35-106 for 33% (+7.82) Chase: 7-14 for 50% (-0.35) 36-98 for 37% (+6.40) NHF: 16-38 for 42% (+2.23) 0-0 for - Total: 61-118 for 52% (+8.67) 71-204 for 35% (+14.22) TOP 5 TRAINERS at Ayr last 5 years +/- E N Richards (15%): 33-151 for 22% (-27.03) +7% 4 L Russell (10%): 21-189 for 11% (-22.95) +1% 4 N W Alexander (11%): 18-171 for 11% (+15.08) +0% 5 D McCain (15%): 13-48 for 27% (+1.06) +12% 0 S Thomson (15%): 13-81 for 16% (-27.27) +1% 2 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Ayr last 5 years +/- R Brian Hughes (18%): 44-212 for 21% (-36.07) +3% 7 Derek Fox (10%): 18-142 for 13% (+11.03) +3% 5 Ross Chapman (10%): 16-75 for 21% (+0.97) +11% 0 Henry Brooke (10%): 13-93 for 14% (+6.62) +4% 0 Craig Nichol (10%): 11-82 for 13% (-20.21) +3% 5 TOP 5 OWNERS at Ayr last 5 years +/- E Trevor Hemmings (15%): 7-33 for 21% (-18.08) +6% 0 MacDonald Family (14%): 7-37 for 19% (+12.00) +5% 1 P & C Rooney (15%): 6-19 for 32% (-3.13) +17% 0 J P McManus (12%): 6-21 for 29% (+18.30) +17% 0 T G Leslie (21%): 5-13 for 38% (+0.98) +17% 0 HOT TRAINERS 17/10/2021 to 16/11/2021 +/- E O Murphy (18%): 19-67 for 28.4% (+11.25) +10% 2 R Dobbin (12%): 5-18 for 27.8% (+8.62) +16% 2 D Whillans (11%): 2-9 for 22.2% (+1.33) +11% 2 N Richards (15%): 6-30 for 20.0% (-1.00) +5% 4 TRAINER COLD LIST E S Wilson (0%): 97 1 B Cawley (5%): 63 2 Miss L Perratt (5%): 49 1 I Duncan (6%): 40 3 A B Hamilton (5)%: 31 1 HOT JOCKEYS 17/10/2021 to 16/11/2021 +/- R Brian Hughes (18%): 23-99 for 23.2% (+0.94) +5% 7 Gavin Sheehan (17%): 10-44 for 22.7% (+3.00) +6% 2 JOCKEY COLD LIST R John Kington (3%): 42 1 Alan Doyle (8%): 33 3 Bruce Lynn (11%): 17 1 William Shanahan (3%): 15 1 Tom Midgley (10%): 15 2 FIXTURES Tuesday 16 November 2021 Monday 22 November 2021 Monday 29 November 2021
At Ayr we are duty bound to look at the runners of Nicky Richards, his 5-year record shows 33-151 for 22% so 7% above his national average. The trainer's combination with jockey Brian Hughes records 62-278 for 22% over the past 5 years. His runners are:
SOFT RISK 12.30, BETTER GETALONG 2.50, GLITTERING LOVE 3.23 and PADDOCK LODGE 3.53
Brian Hughes rides are: SOFT RISK 12.30, THREE CASTLES 1.05, HALF TRACK 1.40, LILY'S GEM 2.15, BELLANEY GEM 2.50, GLITTERING LOVE 3.23 and GEORDIES DREAM 3.53
- FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Ayr produce a profit to level stakes in both non-handicaps and handicaps. The last 5-years show 132-322 for 40.99% (+22.89). The sample size is small but winning favourites in non-handicaps over hurdles and chase scores 45-80 for 56.25%.
- TRAINERS: Nicky Richards is 38-178 for 21.3% (+3.42) over the past 5 years. He has 4 interesting runners and should dominate proceedings.
- OTHER TRAINERS: Iain Jardine has 6 runners and could score, had a glass of champagne and chat with him at Flemington Racecourse. Rose Dobbin is 3-5 for 60% (-1.00) at the track this season, she has 2 runners. Warren Greatrex has 2 runners and makes a trip of 357 miles, his BILL BAXTER 1.40 should make the trip worthwhile and is a PACAFI. There will not be a rationale for this nomination on this occasion.
- COLD LISTS: The trainer and jockey cold lists do not appear to contain any valuable information, which is a rare thing regarding the templates. The trainers on the list especially, are of lower quality with strike rates ranging from 0% to 6%.
- JOCKEYS: The top 2 jockeys at the track are Brian Hughes (7 rides) and Derek Fox (5 rides). So, between them they have 12 rides and one imagines the natural starting point to those betting thought processes! Without looking at the individual rides this couple must provide winners! Be reminded, Brian Hughes shows 62-278 for 22.3% (+8.24) at this course over the past 5 years. This season he is 4-9 for 44% (+6.33)
- OWNERS: Only the MacDonald Family have a runner from our leader board and cannot see that one winning!
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12.30 1.05 1.40 2.15 2.50 3.23 3.53 |
| MICK FITZGERALD - AYR RACECOURSE
Underfoot conditions at Ayr are very important in deciding how you need to ride a race. When it’s very soft, on both the chase and hurdle tracks, you can afford to wait, because the field almost always comes back to you. When it’s quick, on the other hand, you can easily find yourself in trouble if others have got away from you and you’re left with a lot of ground to make up. It’s a fair test, with no bogey fences, but, ideally, you need a horse with both a little bit of toe and a fair amount of stamina. |
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose. |
Today's Pacafi: click here |
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Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a math-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge. The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit. |
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose. |