WARWICK RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Wednesday 17 November 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our Racecourse Template for Warwick on Wednesday 17 November 2021. There is a 7-race card and the going is expected to be good to soft.

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP (5 YEARS)            HANDICAP (5 YEARS)
Hurdle: 65-121 for 54% (+10.32)   31-142 for 22% (-52.62)
Chase:  26-45  for 58%  (+1.27)   63-148 for 43% (+31.80)
NHF:    19-56  for 34% (-10.82)    0-0   for  - 
Total: 110-222 for 50%  (+0.77)   94-290 for 32% (-20.82)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Warwick last 5 years            +/-  E
D Skelton (19%):   57-250 for 23% (-44.78)        +4%  5
N Henderson (24%): 29-111 for 26%  (+1.04)        +2%  2
A King (15%):      29-131 for 22% (-28.09)        +7%  2
J O'Neill (13%):   29-153 for 19% (+74.76)        +6%  1
P Hobbs (16%):     16-110 for 15% (-29.41)        -1%  1

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Warwick last 5 years             +/-  R
H Skelton (22%):      54-224 for 24% (-31.44)     +2%  5
N de Boinville (22%): 18-88  for 20%  (+3.51)     -2%  0
A Coleman (18%):      18-101 for 18%  (-9.11)     +0%  3
S T-Davies (16%):     14-153 for  9% (-96.69)     -7%  4
D Bass (16%):         11-88  for 13% (-15.63)     -3%  0

TOP 5 OWNERS at Warwick last 5 years              +/-  E
J P McManus (12%):     23-84 for 27% (+45.53)    +15%  3
Munir & Souede (22%):   8-21 for 38%  (+0.15)    +16%  0
Bradley Partners (13%): 5-19 for 26% (+38.75)    +13%  0
C & L Buckingham (13%): 4-5  for 80% (+15.07)    +67%  0
S & L Hobson (16%):     4-8  for 50%  (-1.17)    +34%  0

HOT TRAINERS 18/10/2021 to 17/11/2021             +/-  E
O Murphy (18%):   20-67 for 29.9% (+11.25)       +12%  4
N T-Davies (14%): 12-60 for 20.0%  (-2.00)        +6%  1
A King (15%):     16-86 for 18.6%  (-2.00)        +4%  2
C Tizzard (13%):  11-61 for 18.0% (+12.00)        +5%  1

TRAINER COLD LIST     E
G Brown (0%):	 62   1
S-J Davies (4%): 47   1
S Allwood (9%):  28   1
A Irvine (9%):   26   1
S Mullins (10%): 24   2

HOT JOCKEYS 18/10/2021 to 17/11/2021             +/-  R
Aidan Coleman (18%): 14-43 for 32.6%  (-4.75)   +15%  3
Tom Cannon (12%):    12-62 for 19.4%  (-6.00)    +7%  2
Harry Skelton (22%): 16-87 for 18.4%  (-5.00)    -4%  5
Brendan Powell (9%): 11-63 for 17.5% (+23.00)    +9%  2

JOCKEY COLD LIST            R
Ciaran Gethings (10%): 59   2
Benjamin Poste (6%):   30   5
Tabitha Worsley (7%):  27   2
Lewis Stones (6%):     21   1
Charlie Price (9%):    19   1

FIXTURES
Wednesday 17 November 2021
Thursday 9 December 2021

National Hunt Racing at Warwick centres around the entries and rides of the Skelton family - ignore the facts at your peril...

  • FAVOURITES:  Winning favourites have a good record at Warwick with 204-512 for 40% and a small loss of -20.05 to level stakes. Winning favourites in non-handicaps over hurdles and chases show 91-166 for 54.82% so a huge figure to work with!
  • TRAINERS: Dan Skelton reigns supreme at this course and if you are not backing one of his runners then backing against is not advised. He scores almost twice the number of the next best trainer Nicky Henderson and has 5 entries tomorrow and almost certain to have winners!
  • HOT TRAINERS: Olly Murphy is a hot trainer and he has 4 runners so worthy of inspection. Nigel Twiston-Davies, Alan King and Colin Tizzard are also hot trainers and have interesting runners.
  • COLD LISTS: The cold lists of both trainers and jockeys offer little advantage regarding tomorrow's racing. Ciaran Gethings is on a long losing run of 59 and for a jockey with a strike rate of 10% it seems the run must surely end sooner rather than later.
  • JOCKEYS: Harry Skelton's numbers replicate those of his brother and now become a formidable opponent in the saddle. For context purposes Skelton has ridden 57 winners in the last 5 years and next best is Aidan Coleman with 21, and he is a hot jockey who has been scoring at almost 33% in the last month or so and 15% above his national average!
  • OWNERS: Only J P McManus of the top 5 owners has runners at the course tomorrow. His 3 runners are Hartur D'Oudaries 12.00 and Queens River 1.05 and Regal Encore 2.50, he could record a win double!

12.00
HARTUR D'OUDARIES (H Skelton) formerly with Mlle D Mele, trainer is 21% at the course and Harry Skelton rides at 24%

12.30
GLOBAL HARMONY (D Skelton) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, trainer is 21% at the course and Harry Skelton rides at 24%
FONTAINE COLLONGES (V Williams) beaten favourite last time out

1.05
QUEENS RIVER (N Henderson) formerly with Aidan Fitzgerald
WEST BALBOA (D Skelton) formerly with Aidan Fitzgerald, trainer has won 2 of the last 10 runnings, trainer is 21% at the course and Harry Skelton rides at 24%
JOYFUL KIT (T Lawes) beaten favourite last time out

1.40
EDWARDSTONE ( A King) beaten favourite last time out, Tom Cannon has 35% strike rate with chase favourites
ELIXIR DE NUTZ (C Tizzard) beaten favourite last time out
STEPNEY CAUSEWAY (D Skelton) beaten favourite last time out, trainer is 21% at course and Harry Skelton rides at 24% at the course

2.15
KNOTTY ASH (D Skelton) beaten favourite last time out, trainer shows 21% at the track
SALLEY GARDENS & ITALIAN SPIRIT (O Murphy) former is a winner in the last 7 days. Trainer shows 21% with hurdlers running between 2m2f and up to 2m6f 

2.50
MINELLACELEBRATION (K Price) beaten favourite last time out
FAGAN (A Hales) drops from Grade 3 to Class 2
NOW MCGINTY (S Edmunds) drops from Grade 3 to Class 2
REGAL ENCORE (A Honeyball) drops from Grade 3 to Class 2, trainer shows 20% with chasers running between 19f and up to 3m. Also runs Jepeck

3.20
KONIGIN ISABELLA (A Honeyball) trainer shows profit of £12.27 with bumper debutants and 26% with bumper horses running over less than 2m, first time tongue strap
MISS CURIOUSITY & SPRINGAR (S Mullins) trainer shows profit of £126.50 with bumper debutants

MICK FITZGERALD - WARWICK RACECOURSE

Warwick is very much a speed track and, largely due to that reason, I rate it one of the toughest in Britain for a novice. It’s not unknown for an inexperienced horse to panic round there, as the fences come at them so quick, and the undulations don’t make it any easier. The hurdles course is especially sharp and, not surprisingly, ex-Flat horses often do well. There’s no point thinking you can get away with running a non-stayer in the long-distance chases, though, because they invariably go an end-to-end gallop.

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a math-based edge with perceived value attached.

Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *