CHELMSFORD RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (2 December 2021)

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The Racing Horse offers our CHELMSFORD RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Thursday 2 December 2021. There is a 7-race card including 6 handicaps and 1 novice stakes race. The going is expected to be standard.

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Chelmsford FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                     Handicap
2yo:   103-236 for 44% (-15.64)   41-89   for 46% (+36.08)
3yo:   113-232 for 49% (-21.99)  173-510  for 34% (-48.57)
4yo+:   47-110 for 43%  (-4.61)  300-872  for 34% (-26.18)
Total: 263-578 for 46% (-42.24)  514-1471 for 35% (-38.68)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chelmsford current year      +/-   E
M Johnston (15%): 22-99  for 22%  (-3.13)      +7%   3 
M Appleby (11%):  13-115 for 11% (-19.36)      +0%   4  
R Hughes (13%):   11-54  for 20% (+39.95)      +7%   1   
R Varian (20%):   10-30  for 33%  (-3.46)     +13%   1 
J C-Hyam (11%):   10-56  for 18% (+38.87)      +7%   4 

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chelmsford past 5 years      +/-   E
M Johnston (15%): 82-492 for 17%  (-58.93)     +2%   3     
M Appleby (11%):  69-598 for 12% (-131.44)     +1%   4   
J Gosden (24%):   59-239 for 25%  (-42.17)     +1%   0  
D Simcock (13%):  50-298 for 17%  (-41.20)     +4%   0    
S Williams (12%): 50-391 for 13% (-144.39)     +1%   2    

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chelmsford current year       +/-   R
C Shepherd (11%): 17-107 for 16% (+14.94)      +5%   2  
R Dawson (11%):   15-55  for 27% (+39.34)     +16%   0    
M Ghiani (15%):   13-77  for 17% (-14.46)      +2%   3
J Mitchell (15%): 11-58  for 19%  (+5.80)      +4%   2 
L Morris (10%):   10-123 for  8% (-16.59)      -2%   2

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chelmsford past 5 years       +/-   R
L Morris (10%):   76-788 for 10% (-300.73)     +0%   2    
O Murphy (18%):   67-317 for 21%  (-47.75)     +3%   0      
A Kirby (15%):    59-313 for 19%  (-37.99)     +4%   3        
J Crowley (19%):  50-197 for 25%   (-7.50)     +6%   0   
C Shepherd (11%): 50-347 for 14%  (+121.14)    +3%   2  

TOP 5 OWNERS at Chelmsford past 5 years        +/-   E           
Godolphin (24%):      77-302 for 25% (-75.31)  +1%   0     
Ham Al Maktoum (20%): 46-206 for 22% (-24.64)  +2%   -    
Cheveley Park (17%):  24-109 for 22% (-12.84)  +5%   0    
Juma Dalmook (18%):   22-77  for 29% (+13.49) +11%   0        
Saeed Manana (16%):   19-97  for 20% (-23.92)  +4%   0      

Hot Trainers 02/11/2021 to 02/12/2021          +/-   E
Tom Clover (10%): 4-14 for 28.6% (-1.00)      +19%   1
R Varian (20%):   8-30 for 26.7% (-4.00)       +7%   1
K Frost (8%):     2-9  for 22.2% (-3.00)      +14%   1
D O'Meara (11%): 10-46 for 21.7% (-5.00)      +11%   1

Trainer Cold List     E 
R Carr (7%):     77   2
C Dunnett (4%):  44   1
R Ingram (3%):   35   1
M Attwater (6%): 32   1
J Feilden (6%):  26   1

Hot Jockeys 02/11/2021 to 02/12/2021           +/-   R
J Mitchell (15%):  9-38 for 23.7%  (-2.00)     +9%   2
J Watson (13%):   10-47 for 21.3%  (+9.00)     +8%   2
T Marquand (13%): 18-85 for 21.2% (+20.90)     +8%   2

Jockeys Cold List          R 
Luke Morris (10%):    60   2
Charlie Bennett (7%): 58   1
James Sullivan (7%):  57   1
Kieran O'Neill (8%):  48   2 
Joe Fanning (15%):    42   3
Shane Kelly (8%):     28   2  

FIXTURES
Thursday 2 December 2021
Thursday 9 December 2021
Monday 13 December 2021
Thursday 16 December 2021

(%): NATIONAL AVERAGE  E: Entries  R: Rides

WINNING FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Chelmsford over the past 5 years show 777-2049 for 37.92% (-80.92) so favourites winning around 6% above the national average. Winning favourites in non-handicaps win at 46% whilst handicap winning favourites at 35%. The sample size is big, reliable and certainly something to work with.

LEADING COURSE TRAINERS: Mark Johnston is the leading trainer at the track and has 3 entered at Chelmsford. He scores heavily at the course, 2% above his national average over the past 5 years, but 7% for the current year. At 25% John Gosden easily recorded the best strike rate at the course over the past 5 years, J & T Gosden have scored 6-23 for 26% this year so maintaining that impressive strike rate. By the way, they have 5 entered in the 4.40 Novice race at Wolverhampton on Saturday and the race is worthy of a long long look!

HOT TRAINERS: Our hot trainers include Roger Varian, Tom Clover and David O'Meara who have one runner each and all have chances.

TRAINER COLD LIST: The trainer cold list is not of much help today, the five trainer's named have national averages below 7%

LEADING COURSE JOCKEYS: Luke Morris is top jockey at the track but based on volume, he has 2 rides. Adam Kirby with 3, Marco Ghiani 3, and Jack Mitchell (2) are likely winners, though Callum Shepherd is top jockey at the course this year, he's currently 1-28 for 4%. His two rides do not look like winners!

HOT JOCKEYS: Jack Mitchell, Jason Watson and Tom Marquand each have 2 rides and we sense a couple of winners coming from this small grouping.

COLD LIST JOCKEYS: Kieran O'Neill is currently 0-48 but has 2 decent rides today, he could break his losing run. Shane Kelly has 2 rides, one of them has a winning chance, but we could not back a ride of his with forged money! Luke Morris is now 0-60 so a monster losing run, he has 2 rides but we cannot see either winning! We will follow him closely over the coming days. Joe Fanning is likely to come off the list today, see below...

LEADING COURSE OWNERS: None of our top 5 owners have runners on Thursday at this course. (In this section on Tuesday we found a 40/1 winner lurking so congratulations to both Sarah B for backing straight win, and Manny E who found the Exacta £176.90)!

DID YOU KNOW: Joe Fanning (15%) is currently 0-42, Luke Morris (10%) is 0-60 and Kevin Manning (14%) is 0-58. They total 0-160 and the feeling this run must end before the week is over! Kevin Manning is not riding today but has 2 rides tomorrow.

Joe Fanning: DARK COMPANY 4.30, DUTCH DECOY 5.30, WADACRE GOGO 6.00

4.00
BY JOVE (M Appleby) weighted to win 60 > 55 WINNER 25/1
BOY IN THE BAR (I Williams) biggest earner £147,595.33

4.30
TREVOLLI (I Furtado) beaten favourite last time out, first time cheek pieces WINNER 9/4
THUNDER SON (K Frost) formerly with M Stoute, trainer currently 2-6 for 33%, NA is 8%, first time tongue strap

5.00
NOTORIOUSLY RISKY (A Watson) beaten favourite last time out, Hollie Doyle rides WINNER 4/1
NANTOSUELTA (D & C Kubler) 132 progeny of Kodiac has won on debut

5.30
INTERNATIONALDEBUT (J Chapple-Hyam) trainer 18% at course this year and 7% above NA. Adam Kirby rides and 19% at track WINNER 15/8

6.00
SOPHOSC (I Williams) trainer shows profit of £37.22 with winning favourites WINNER 13/8

6.30
COPINET (J Chapple-Hyam) beaten favourite last time out, trainer shows profit of £55.50 when using first time headgear WINNER 5/1
SIR RODNEYREDBLOOD (J R Jenkins) winner in the last 7 days, Marco Ghiani rides

7.00
I'M MABLE (D Holland) beaten favourite last time out WINNER 13/8
KATH'S LUSTRE (R Hughes) weighted to win 63 > 58

CHELMSFORD RACECOURSE -  JASON WEAVER
Nobody can fault the layout of Chelmsford, because it’s superb, absolutely immaculate, with lovely turns and a good long straight. You’d struggle to find a horse that can’t handle the sweep of the bends and you can ride into them as hard as you can anywhere. Lots of people have noticed there’s been a pace bias, making it hard to come from behind, and that the kickback was severe. That should change now they’re working on resurfacing and, potentially, it’s as good an all-weather venue as you’ll find.
If one wants to profit from sports betting the correct mentality is absolutely essential. Betting can be an unsafe place for some, adverse results can seriously affect the health and well being, not only of the individual, but family and friends who often live with the consequences.
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