The Racing Horse offers our Chepstow Racecourse Template for Saturday 4 December 2021. There is an 8-race card and the going is expected to be good to soft.

FAVOURITES 
NON-HANDICAP (5 YEARS)            HANDICAP (5 YEARS)
Hurdle: 60-115 for 52%  (+6.18)   35-106 for 33%  (+1.69)
Chase:   8-26  for 31% (-10.29)   45-130 for 35% (+14.47)
NHF:    15-39  for 38%  (-6.24)   0-0    for  - 
Total:  83-180 for 46% (-10.35)   80-236 for 34% (+16.15)

TOP TRAINERS at Chepstow for 2020/2021          +/-   E
P Nicholls (24%): 18-52 for 35% (+23.87)       +11%   6
E Williams (11%):  7-60 for 12% (-27.50)        +1%   5    
V Williams (15%):  6-24 for 25%  (-4.50)       +10%   2     
N Henderson (24%): 4-14 for 29%  (-0.12)        +5%   0     
D Pipe (13%):      4-17 for 24%  (+8.25)       +11%   5  

TOP TRAINERS at Chepstow for last 5 seasons     +/-   E 
Paul Nicholls (23%): 46-170 for 27%  (-3.73)    +4%   6      
Evan Williams (11%): 27-211 for 13% (+32.45)    +2%   5   
Colin Tizzard (13%): 23-177 for 13% (-74.21)    +0%   2    
Philip Hobbs (16%):  20-123 for 16%  (-2.33)    +0%   6
David Pipe (13%):    16-75  for 21% (+27.73)    +8%   5   

TOP JOCKEYS at Chepstow for 2020/2021           +/-   R
Harry Cobden (21%): 12-36 for 27%  (-2.41)      +6%   0     
Tom Scudamore (13%): 7-24 for 29% (+10.12)     +16%   0    
James Bowen (14%):   7-31 for 23%  (+0.45)      +9%   0    
Bryan Carver (14%):  4-21 for 19%  (-7.67)      +5%   0     
Lilly Pinchin (12%): 3-7  for 43%  (+5.52)     +31%   2

TOP JOCKEYS at Chepstow for last 5 seasons      +/-   R
Harry Cobden (21%):  32-134 for 24% (-25.85)    +3%   0    
Tom Scudamore (13%): 21-106 for 20% (+11.60)    +7%   0
Adam Wedge (12%):    19-143 for 13% (+49.08)    +1%   7   
S T-Davies (16%):    12-84  for 14% (-31.81)   -2%%   0
Gavin Sheehan (17%): 10-56  for 18%  (-8.33)    +1%   0

TOP OWNERS for last 5 seasons                   +/-   E     
Mr W Rucker (15%):   12-53 for 23% (+51.08)     +8%   2        
K & A Brooks (23%):   7-21 for 33%  (+5.47)    +10%   0        
John P McManus (12%): 7-51 for 14%  (-0.45)     +2%   3    
Stewart Family (26%): 4-9  for 44%  (+6.55)    +18%   0
Colm Donlon (25%):    4-11 for 36%  (+7.18)    +11%   0        

HOT TRAINERS 03/11/2021 to 03/12/2021           +/-   E
N Williams (15%):  4-10 for 40.0%  (+4.50)     +25%   1
P Nicholls (24%): 26-93 for 28.0%  (+1.29)      +4%   6
K Bailey (17%):    5-24 for 20.8%  (-1.50)      +4%   1
C Tizzard (13%):  14-68 for 20.6% (+11.00)      +8%   2
F O'Brien (18%):  18-91 for 19.8%  (-2.00)      +2%   5

COLD LIST TRAINERS    E
C J Gray (0%): 185    1
N Evans (1%):   95    2
L Young (3%):   28    1
J Scott (13%):  26    2


HOT JOCKEYS 20/10/2021 to 19/11/2021            +/-   R
Chester Williams (16%): 7-20 for 35.0% (+2.50) +19%   1
Sean Bowen (17%):      11-51 for 21.6% (+4.00)  +5%   7

COLD LIST JOCKEYS          R  
Fergus Gillard (13%): 58   5
Benjamin Poste (6%):  46   2
Lucy Gardner (8%):    41   1
Charlie Price (9%):   29   1    

(%): National Average  E: Entries  R: Rides

FIXTURES 
Saturday 4 December 2021
Monday 27 December 2021

FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Chepstow show 163-416 for 39% and a profit to level stakes of +5.80. Best category are winning non-handicap favourites over hurdles, they score 60-115 for 52% (+6.18). Favourites win in handicaps recording 80-236 for 34% (+16.15) so a profit without filtration and a strike rate above the national average. The figures suggest this course is favourite friendly and this is in spite of some very testing winter ground, the market gets it right!

TRAINERS: Our pertinence board shouts at us and suggest Paul Nicholls (6), Anthony Honeyball (6), Philip Hobbs (6), Evan Williams (5) and David Pipe (5) will have winners. From these 28 runners it will be a surprise if they do not win at least half of the races at this meeting.

TRAINER COLD LIST: This cold list offer us virtually nothing for tomorrow or even the week ahead and an irrelevance, though every single figure contains some value!

JOCKEYS: Top jockey at the course tomorrow with rides is Adam Wedge (12%) and he has 7 rides and surely he must ride a winner. None of the other top jockeys on our leader board have rides at Chepstow tomorrow, they have either gone to Aintree or Sandown.

HOT JOCKEYS: Sean Bowen has a much higher national average than Adam Wedge and he also has 7 rides, he also must ride a winner. Chester Williams rode 3 winners today and now 5-12 for 42% and he has one ride tomorrow. We doubt that one will win but acknowledge how well he is currently riding.

JOCKEY COLD LIST: Fergus Gillard is a jockey with a decent national average of 13% but now reads 0-58 and he has 5 rides. Will he score or go to 0-63?

OWNERS: The Ruckers have 2 runners and being 23% at the track must be considered. J P McManus has 3 more runners.

MICHAEL WILDING of RACE ADVISOR: "There are very few providers of horse racing data, and even less sources of the original data. Most of the big sites simply buy the data and get it fed into their systems. Some of them may have a few checks, but it takes a lot of time to clean data, and time costs money. So most of them don’t bother, because most people never pick it up, and the big horse racing sites make their money from commissions off bookmakers (which is morally dubious at best)."

We fully understand and acknowledge these comments. We tend to rely on the figures of Racing Post (first), Timeform (second) and At The Races (third), all of which we pay for, but we know there are times our sources are either late in updating or sometimes simply wrong. There is little we can do about it...

CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE - MICK FITZGERALD

Record times for Chepstow are very quick, which shows how slick it can be when the ground is fast, but horses can finish strung out like washing when it gets soft. Punters really must take note of conditions then, if they’re having a bet, because horses with stamina limitations can get home when the going is right for them, while it can be a real slog when it’s heavy. The other things to consider seriously are the undulations and the downhill run from the last. If you walk round the course, for example, you’ll be aware that, from several places out in the country, you can’t see the stands. The run-in, on the other hand, is quite steeply downhill, very quick on fast ground, and that’s why you often see horses make a mistake at the final jump.