PACAFI (Thursday 9 December 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

PAY THE PIPER 2.20 Newcastle at 8/11

 Back A Winner With MansionBet Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3) 2m75y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 4-14 for 29%          (10)     
National average: 22%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 7%               (9)        
OR: 160                             (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Good to soft        (10)
Distance: 2m                        (10)
Jockey: Brian Hughes                (10)
National Average: 18%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 23%             (10) 
Trainer/jockey combination: 18%     (10)
Total:                              (99)
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Danger: Cornerstone Lad

Graded novice

Pay The Piper brings a high level of recent form to the table. He was a progressive triple winner over hurdles (2m/2m1f) last season and he has continued the good work over fences this term. It looks as though he will better over fences and it is likely a Graded novice will be won him at some stage this season.

Outclassed by Bravemansgame on his latest outing, the 6yo ran a career best in the Colin Parker Memorial prior to that, when runner-up to Ladbrokes Trophy second Fiddlerontheroof. He looks potentially well treaded on this drop back in trip/class and he has a great chance with Brian Hughes booked to ride.

Trainer and jockey form

A big factor regarding this wager is looking at the form of the only two trainers who have a chance of winning this race

Ann Hamilton (National Average 22%)
December: 0-1  for  0% (-1.00)
November: 1-2  for 50% (+2.33)
October:  3-11 for 27% (-0.83)
Total:    4-14 for 29% (+0.50)

Micky Hammond (National Average 9%)
December: 0-26 for  0% (-26.00)

The 0-26 from Micky Hammond contains a couple of second places in poor races. In fact since 1 July the trainer shows 6-119 for 5%. Last December he recorded 1-51 for 2%.

Brian Hughes rides the Pacafi and shows 680-3808 for 18% over the past 5-years. In the same time frame Conor O'Farrell scores 130-1194 for 11% so another edge to our wager.

Contenders

Cornerstone Lad is the class act in the field having won the Fighting Fifth here just over two years ago. Micky Hammond's stable star hasn't looked a natural over fences so far. Democratic Oath is of some interest on his first start for Sandy Thompson and could take third place.

Timeform

 This could develop into a potential match between PAY THE PIPER and Cornerstone Lad with the other 3 comfortably out of the weights. The former appeals as the better handicapped of the 2 so is preferred.

Value

The 4/5 was missed and that was annoying but the 8/11 looks to be the north side of perceived value.

Cornerstone Lad traded at a low of 1.87 and Betfair SP of 2.08 when losing last time, a race in which it led: Pay The Piper traded at a low of 7.80 and Betfair SP of 7.80 when losing last time, a race in which it raced towards the rear.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021

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