FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP (5 YEARS)            HANDICAP (5 YEARS)
Hurdle: 41-105 for 39% (-15.78)   22-93  for 24%  (-5.01)
Chase:  44-113 for 39% (-10.41)   26-111 for 23% (-15.13)
NHF:     4-25  for 16% (-12.25)    0-0   for  - 
Total:  89-243 for 37% (-37.44)   48-204 for 24% (-20.13)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Cheltenham (5 years)            +/-   E 
Nicky Henderson (24%): 41-274 for 15%  (-39.32)   -9%   2        
Gordon Elliott (23%):  26-160 for 16%  (+28.42)   -7%   0     
W P Mullins (12%):     24-236 for 10%  (-11.91)   -2%   0    
Dan Skelton (19%):     22-219 for 10%  (-60.56)   -9%   6        
Paul Nicholls (24%):   22-231 for 10% (-100.58)  -14%   2 

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Cheltenham (5 years)             +/-   R
Harry Skelton (22%):  22-178 for 12% (-54.06)    -10%   6          
N de Boinville (22%): 18-122 for 15% (+25.80)     -7%   2        
Paddy Brennan (16%):  15-141 for 11%  (-8.62)     -5%   0         
Harry Cobden (22%):   14-165 for  8% (-74.72)    -13%   3
Aidan Coleman (18%):  12-112 for 11% (-51.13)     -6%   6  

TOP 5 OWNERS at Cheltenham (5 years)              +/-   E
J P McManus (17%):       33-267 for 12% (-94.211) -5%   3    
Munir & Souede (21%):    11-98  for 11% (-62.96) -10%   3        
Gigginstown House (10%): 11-116 for  9% (-40.52)  +0%   0         
Cheveley Park Stud (17%): 7-16  for 44% (+16.69) +27%   1      
P J Vogt (17%):           5-10  for 50% (+19.75) +33%   0      

HOT TRAINERS 11/11/2021 to 11/12/2021             +/-   E 
O Murphy (18%):   22-75  for 29.3% (+6.00)       +11%   4 
P Nicholls (24%): 23-91  for 25.3% (+3.29)        +1%   2  
N T-Davies (14%): 15-60  for 25.0% (-6.00)       +11%   4   
V Williams (15%):  9-38  for 23.7% (-2.00)        +9%   3  
H Bromhead (16%): 17-84  for 20.2% (+26.81)       +4%   1
D Skelton (19%):  27-134 for 20.1% (-4.00)        +1%   6   

COLD LIST TRAINERS   E
L Morgan (15%): 29   1 
M Gillard (5%): 24   1

HOT JOCKEYS 11/11/2021 to 11/12/2021              +/-   R
C Williams (16%):      8-20 for 40.0%  (+3.50)   +24%   1  
N De Boinville (22%): 12-42 for 28.6%  (+2.75)   +10%   2  
S Bowen (17%):        13-54 for 24.1%  (-4.00)    +9%   3  
H Skelton (22%):      21-89 for 23.6%  (+2.00)    +3%   6  
R Blackmore (16%):    10-44 for 22.7% (+29.81)    +7%   2
H Cobden (22%):       13-62 for	21.0%  (+2.29)    -1%   3

COLD LIST JOCKEYS          R
Fergus Gillard (13%): 68   1
Sean Quinlan (11%):   29   2
Page Fuller (10%):    24   2

FIXTURES
Saturday 11 December 2021
Saturday 1 January 2022

(%): UK National Average  E: Entries  R: Rides

FAVOURITES: Just one winning favourite yesterday! Today has the promise of two winning favourites.

Winning favourites at Cheltenham over the past 5 years show 137-447 for 30.65% (-57.57) so a strike rate below the national average. Winning favourites in handicaps perform particularly badly at the course with 48-204 for 24% yet conversely show a level stake loss of just -20.13. NHF winners at this course, albeit from a small sample, show an even worse conversion rate with 4-25 for 16% (-12.25) for favourite backers.

PAUL NICHOLLS: It is not easy for trainers and jockeys to have winners here, there are no freebies, the 5-year totals prove it. Hard to believe Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls has trained just 22 winners in that time frame at this course! His 10% strike rate looks dreadful when measured against his national average of 24% and against other trainers. Context is everything but we can't help comparing his figures against those of Fergal O'Brien 19-159 for 12% (+6.04) who has a far better strike rate! Dan Skelton has better figures than Nicholl also, and they are not Champion Trainers.

His all time score at the track reads 230-1722 for 13% so it appears he is doing something different with his horses more recently, and in particular the last two seasons:

Paul Nicholls at Cheltenham for last 2 seasons
2020/2021: 3-56 for 5% (-43.17)
2019/2020: 2-40 for 5% (-28.50)
Total:     5-96 for 5% (-71.67)

We've had shares in three horses in training with Nicholls and know he is not, as his status suggest, excellent at placing horses on the right course and right ground - there are many others much better than him at that aspect of training! A sample of 96 is not considerable, but in the context of a Champion Trainer finding the correct grade/type of horse to compete on a particular course, we would suggest it is big enough! Something certainly needs a tweak. He has just 2 runners today and we are racing on perfect jumping ground?

TRAINERS: Nicky Henderson (41 winners) is easily top trainer at the course, he runs 2 but we cannot see an obvious winner. Alan King catches the eye with 7 runners, we cannot remember him bringing a number like that to Cheltenham. He would be disappointed if he returned to Wiltshire without a winner. He also has a runner at Newcastle and Doncaster making it 9 runners on the day!

HOT TRAINERS: Hot trainers Dan Skelton has 6 runners, Olly Murphy and Nigel Twiston-Davies have 4 runners each, and Venetia Williams 3 and this quartet must be amongst the winners for sure.

JOCKEY COLD LISTS: Fergus Gillard (13%) and Sean Quinlan (11%) are 0-97 between them. We will study the rides of Gillard over the coming week, at a 13% national average his 0-68 losing run is just too big!

OTHER JOCKEYS: Harry Cobden has 3 rides but Harry Skelton and Aidan Coleman have 6 rides each. Normally one would automatically associate winners with these class jockeys but there are no freebies at Cheltenham. Yesterday Cobden did not finish the course on his 2 rides, Skelton and Coleman drew a blank from 5 rides also! Paddy Brennan has 0 rides and goes to Doncaster instead, he must have a reason given his stable train next to the course?

OWNERS: J P McManus drew a blank yesterday from his four runners, he has 3 more today. Munir & Souede have 3 runners also whilst Cheveley Park Stud have a runner and they show 7-16 for 44% at the course.