BRORSON 12.45 Catterick at 5/4 

 Happy Birthday On Friday Jules Novices' Hurdle (Class 4) 2m3f66y 

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 2-4 for 50%           (10)     
National average: 12%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 21%             (10)        
OR & RPR: 117 & 132                 (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Good to soft        (10)
Distance: 2m4f                      (10)
Jockey: Sean Bowen                  (10)
National Average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate:                 (NA) 
Trainer/jockey combination: 31%     (10)
Total:                              (90)
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Danger: Barrule Park Alt: Ashover Hills

Strong form

The 5yo Brorson brings very strong form coming into this race when a beaten 11/2 favourite last time out at Cheltenham in a Class 3 handicap, when only beaten 4l after running on late. The extra three furlongs of this race should suit perfectly. With only five races on the clock there is any amount of improvement still to come. Tomorrow is a Class 4 Novice race so a serious drop in grade for this progressive.

Previous to that run he was beaten just ¾l by the Gordon Elliott trained Top Bandit and he won his next two races at Punchestown. The winner was given a high rating by an excited winning jockey Davy Russell.

Trainer form

Martin Keighley has been in fantastic form for a while now, we look at his figures since June 2021 and measure these performances against his national average of 12%. Donald McCain is in good form but this trainer has been hitting 15% above his average since June and our Pacafi is an improver under his tutelage.

December:  2-12  for 17%  (-2.50)
November:  8-22  for 36% (+16.25)
October:   3-24  for 13% (-12.80)
September: 3-7   for 43%  (+6.70)
August:    1-8   for 13%  (-3.67)
July:      6-16  for 38%  (-1.54)
June:      7-21  for 33% (+50.70)
Total:    30-110 for 27% (+53.14)

Contenders

With the McCain horses in good form the main danger looks to be the once-raced Barrule Park, bred for this sphere but a disappointing last on his bumper debut. Wind surgery, a tongue tie and hurdles may see a better effort here, but he will do well to beat the Pacafi.  Ashover Hills has shown some signs of ability and could also get involved.

Timeform

BRORSON wasn't disgraced when seventh in a big-field handicap at Cheltenham last month and even his form prior to that is working out well, so he's very much the one to beat with this step up in trip promising to suit. Barrule Park failed to meet expectations in a Carlisle bumper but he's clearly thought capable of much better, while newcomer Wrong Shape Ball requires a market check.

Value

The 5/4 looks perceived value and must surely start odds on.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021.