CHEPSTOW Racecourse Template (Friday 26 April 2024)
April 25th, 2024
The Racing Horse offers our Chepstow Racecourse Template for Friday 26 April 2024. There is an 8-rac[...]
KEMPTON RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Wednesday 15 December 2021)
Posted by in Blog
Leave a comment
|
The Racing Horse offers our powerful Racecourse Template for Kempton on Wednesday 15 December 2021. There is an 8-race card containing 5 handicaps, 2 maidens and 1 novice race.How to PROFIT from the PACAFI |
Winning favourites (5 years) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo: 140-332 for 42% (-37.09) 40-136 for 29% (-17.94) 3yo: 130-276 for 47% (-10.70) 177-582 for 30% (-70.15) 4yo+: 48-107 for 45% (+0.90) 265-845 for 31% (-48.23) Total: 318-715 for 44% (-46.89) 482-1563 for 31% (-136.31) TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON for current year +/- E A Balding (15%): 17-92 for 18% (+63.35) +3% 1 R Varian (19%): 16-51 for 31% (+9.58) +12% 2 J & T Gosden (22%): 13-58 for 22% (-15.28) +0% 3 C Appleby (28%): 11-40 for 28% (-10.08) +0% 1 R Charlton (17%): 11-59 for 19% (+3.54) +2% 1 TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON for past 5 years +/- E J Gosden (24%): 76-302 for 25% (-32.34) +1% 3 R Hannon (12%): 65-640 for 10% (-178.31) -2% 1 R Varian (20%): 63-279 for 23% (-15.27) +3% 2 A Balding (15%): 62-399 for 16% (+54.66) +1% 1 A Watson (18%): 53-264 for 20% (-32.77) +2% 0 GODOLPHIN TRAINERS at Kempton for past 5 years +/- E Charlie Appleby (28%): 47-129 for 36% (-15.76) +10% 1 Saeed bin Suroor (21%): 35-153 for 23% (-26.18) +2% 0 Total: 82-282 for 29% (-41.94) TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON for current year +/- R H Doyle (14%): 30-203 for 15% (-54.14) +1% 8 O Murphy (18%): 23-91 for 25% (+1.43) +7% 0 R Kingscote (14%): 21-159 for 13% (-70.00) -1% 0 D Probert (11%): 21-174 for 12% (-0.19) +1% 6 Rossa Ryan (13%): 17-89 for 19% (+11.96) +6% 0 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON for past 5 years +/- R O Murphy (18%): 119-648 for 18% (-77.41) +0% 0 A Kirby (15%): 83-654 for 13% (-227.78) -2% 0 D Probert (11%): 76-783 for 10% (-152.06) -1% 6 L Morris (10%): 76-905 for 8% (-213.37) -2% 0 J Doyle (20%): 74-331 for 22% (+15.00) +2% 2 TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton for past 5 years E Godolphin (24%): 89-317 for 28% (-49.27) +4% 1 Hamdan Al Maktoum (22%): 51-229 for 22% (+30.16) +0% - K Abdullah (24%): 28-118 for 24% (-3.50) +0% - King Power Racing (14%): 25-129 for 19% (-13.18) +5% 0 Hamdan bin Mohammed (16%): 16-85 for 19% (+10.71) +3% 0 HOT TRAINERS 15/11/2021 to 15/12/2021 +/- E E De Giles (9%): 2-4 for 50.0% (+2.75) +41% 1 J Ferguson (17%): 3-8 for 37.5% (+1.38) +31% 1 TRAINERS COLD LIST E L Carter (5%): 55 2 B Barr (4%): 30 2 R Stephens (7%): 26 1 D P Quinn (4%): 21 1 S Hodgson (16%): 23 1 HOT JOCKEYS 15/11/2021 to 15/12/2021 +/- R James Doyle (20%): 7-25 for 28.0% (-4.65) +8% 2 Tom Marquand (13%): 10-51 for 19.6% (+13.11) +8% 2 Daniel Muscutt (10%): 9-47 for 19.1% (-6.46) +9% 3 Jack Mitchell (15%): 8-42 for 19.0% (+27.50) +4% 5 JOCKEYS COLD LIST R Grace McEntee (8%): 45 1 Ryan Tate (9%): 31 1 Sam James (9%): 27 1 Dylan Hogan (8%): 25 2 FIXTURES Wednesday 15 December 2021 Friday 17 December 2021 Sunday 19 December 2021 Wednesday 5 January 2022 Saturday 8 January 2022 (%): National Average E: Entries R: Rides
FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Kempton over the past 5 years show 800-2278 for 35.19% (-183.20). Best categories are 3yo & 4yo+ in non-handicaps scoring 178-383 for 46.48% and a very small loss of -9.80 given the huge sample. Sensible filtration could easily facilitate a profit to level stakes. Winning favourites in handicaps strike at below the national average and produce a level stake loss of -136.31.
TRAINERS: Charlie Appleby should be followed at Kempton especially, here are his last 5-year figures on the AW courses. We are reminded he sometimes doubles-up in races which dilutes his strike rate. He has a national average of 28% so only Chelmsford falls below that figure.
Chelmsford: 25-92 for 27% (-32.03) Kempton: 47-129 for 36% (-15.76) Lingfield: 22-72 for 31% (-5.77) Newcastle: 16-38 for 42% (+8.17) Wolverhampton: 33-97 for 34% (-18.71)
Appleby runs just the one runner in ROYAL SYMBOL 4.45 and some will be taking an early price in the belief it will surely shorten.
OTHER TRAINERS: J & T Gosden has 3 runners, William Haggas 3, and Roger Varian (31% at the course this year) has 2 runners so those must be worth a look and we imagine a winner from this grouping. There are a number of our top trainers with single entries including Andrew Balding, Roger Charlton, Richard Hannon, Hugo Palmer, Clive Cox and Mark Johnston.
TRAINER COLD LIST: There are no trainers on the cold list of interest, though Simon Hodgson has a national average of 16% which warrants respect.
JOCKEYS: There are 4 jockeys to watch out for tomorrow, Hollie Doyle has 8 rides, Tom Marquand has 7, David Probert 6 and James Doyle 2. We expect a numbers of winners from this quartet.
JOCKEY COLD LIST: We are not saying the four jockeys on our cold list should be totally ignored, but they will not be carrying our stake money.
OWNERS: Godolphin reign supreme at Kempton and have fantastic figures at the course, on this occasion they have just the one Charlie Appleby entry.
|
3.45 4.15 4.45 5.15 5.45 6.15 6.45 7.15 Gaassee was seriously considered for Pacafi but yesterday's 4/7 and 8/15 was far too short so waited for the price to ease to something closer to 4/5 or even 8/11. BUT, the amount of money and confidence for the Hollie Doyle ride Jenson Benson and the fact the two jockeys are a couple have compromised the bet, to the point we do not want the 10/11 on offer with Ladbrokes and Coral (1.92 on Betfair). Although we believe in the integrity of the two jockeys the betting patterns of this particular race suggests there is something amiss. Our original tissue for the race was: 8/11 GAASSEE, 9/4 TREVOLLI, 9/2 JENSON BENSON 33/1 EPIC PASS which makes Trevolli currently trading at 9/2 as the standout value in the race? By the way, trainer Shaun Lycett (Jenson Benson) has 3 flat winners in the last 2 years whilst Kempton shows him 2-34 for 6%. The horse is 51313 for the trainer with both wins at Chelmsford and 2-4 at that track. |
|
NATIONAL AVERAGE Please note the percentages in brackets for the Top 5 Trainers at Kempton show their national averages over the past 5 years. Comparing current form or course form against that of the national average is our preferred measuring tool, the math suggests a factual position and not one of bias. Besides, the higher the national average, with respect to the other trainers, the greater chance of success. The higher the trainer's success rate, the more likely the horse is to win. |
| JASON WEAVER on KEMPTON
The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics. |
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose. |