PACAFI (Friday 14 January 2022)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

FAMOUS STAR 6.30 Wolverhampton at 11/8

 Betway Handicap (Class 3) 2m120y


Trainer Form: 3-4 for 75%           (10)     
National average: 20%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 21%             (10)        
RPR: 102                            (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)
Distance: 2m                        (10)
Jockey: Harry Burns                  (9)
National Average: 9%                (10)
Course Strike Rate: 21%             (10) 
Trainer/jockey combination AW: 50%  (10)
Total:                              (99)
Danger: Nate The Grate

Very tough to beat given pace and a kind trip

Famous Star is a lightly-raced winner (just four runs to date) and produced a career best when winning a 6-runner handicap at 5/2 over this course and distance 11 days ago when suited by an increase in trip. She is unpenalised for that success and she looks tough to beat.

The win was in a Class 4 and tomorrow is a Class 3 where jockey Harry Burns always looked confident of winning despite being last of the six most of the way, and he won without getting rough with his filly as she powered to the finishing line suggesting a better pace and the outing would bring her on again.

Trainer form

Simon Crisford has his horses in excellent form, three of his last four runners have won. At Wolverhampton the trainer shows 14-68 for 21% and jockey Harry Burns has just the two rides and won on Famous Star for a 50% strike rate. Given the jockey has a national average of 9% his record at the course is very good at 7-34 for 21% (+3.88)


Nate The Grate is also a course and distance winner back in February 2021 Creditable second of 6 in handicap at 2/1 at Kempton over 2m 44 days ago, when sticking to task. Has 23 runs on the clock now so far more exposed than the Pacafi.


FAMOUS STAR did it well over C&D on her handicap debut last time and she should be able to improve again to win again off the same mark tonight. Author's Dream is in good form at the moment and he shouldn't be far away. Nate The Great isn't out of things either.


The 11/8 looks a very good price though we accept the race could be particularly tactical and our jockey has the likes of Tom Marquand and Joe Fanning to contend with.




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