KEMPTON RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Saturday 15 January 2022)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment
14January2022

The Racing Horse offers our Racecourse Template for Kempton Saturday 15 January 2022. There is a 7-race card and the going is expected to be soft. 

Winning favourites (5 years)
Non-handicap                    Handicap
Hurdle 53-108 for 49% (-4.76)	30-83  for 36% (+12.79)
Chase  25-45  for 56% (-1.27)	35-96  for 36%  (+4.44)
NHF    12-29  for 41% (+3.69)	0-0		
TOTAL  90-182 for 49% (-2.35)	65-179 for 36% (+17.23)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON for past 5 years        +/-   E
N Henderson (24%) 52-211 for 25% (-33.28)         +1%  10
P Nicholls (23%)  52-232 for 22% (-33.34)         -1%   2
A King (15%)      18-151 for 12% (-77.76)         -3%   3
D Skelton (19%)   13-109 for 12% (-22.52)         -7%   4
B Pauling (12%)   10-50  for 20% (+37.50)         +8%   2

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON for past 5 years         +/-   R
N de Boinville (22%) 33-136 for 24% (-25.40)      +2%   4
H Cobden (21%)       29-157 for 18% (-23.77)      -3%   4
S T-Davies (16%)     19-109 for 17% (-28.81)      +1%   0
B Frost (16%)        14-50  for 28% (+50.85)     +12%   0
D Jacob (16%)        12-72  for 17% (+39.12)      +1%   0

TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton for past 5 years          +/-   E
J P McManus (12%)     16-55 for 29% (-16.92)     +17%   2
Mrs J de la Hey (17%) 11-50 for 22% (-17.37)      +5%   0
Munir & Souede (21%)  10-51 for 20% (+42.70)      -1%   3
Mrs J Donnelly (31%)   5-8  for 63%  (+1.61)     +32%   0
P Murphy (13%)         4-9  for 44%  (+7.12)     +31%   0

HOT TRAINERS 16/12/2021 to 15/01/2022             +/-   E
T Lawes (15%)     3-8  for 38% (+3.00)           +23%   1
V Williams (16%) 14-52 for 27% (-3.00)           +11%   1
J Scott (13%)     7-27 for 26% (-2.00)           +13%   1
G L Moore (14%)  17-67 for 25% (-2.00)           +11%   5
J Snowden (17%)   6-27 for 22% (-5.00)            +5%   1

TRAINERS COLD LIST  SAW   E
W Greatrex (12%)     32   1
A King (15%)         24   3
P Hobbs (15%)        22   4
F O'Brien (17%)      16   1

HOT JOCKEYS 16/12/2021 to 15/01/2022              +/-   R 
H Cobden (21%) 9-41 for 22% (+3.33)               +1%   4
J Moore (11%) 11-55 for 20% (-3.00)               +9%   5
J Burke (12%)  9-54 for 17% (+6.50)               +5%   4

JOCKEYS COLD LIST  SAW   R 
P O'Brien (9%)      25   1
A Edwards (14%)     22   1
F Gillard (12%)     15   1
T O'Brien (11%)     11   5

FIXTURES
Saturday 15 January 2022
Friday 11 February 2022

(%): National Average SAW: Since a win E: Entries R: Rides

FAVOURITES: Not a huge sample but winning favourites at Kempton over the past 5 years score 155-361 for an impressive 42.94% and a level stake profit of +14.88. Given the figures (10% plus above the national average) we do not like opposing favourites on this track unless we can secure real value on something else!

The best strike rate is for winning favourites in non-handicap chase races with 56%, though favourites in non-handicap hurdle races score at 49%. Handicap favourites produce a 36% strike rate so well above the national average again.

TRAINERS: The percentage of winning favourites might have a bit to do with Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls who have both scored 52 winners over the past 5 years. Interesting that Henderson has 10 entries as we go to post, whilst Nicholls has 2. The former has a 3% better strike rate at the course and that number is significant.

HOT TRAINERS: We have four hot trainers with single entries but Gary Moore, who is currently scoring 11% of his national average, has 5 entries - he must score a winner! 

TRAINER COLD LIST: Because our four trainers on the cold list have national averages above 12% it really is worth keep an eye on their entries within the coming week or so. They are collectively 0-94 which is a big number given the quality of horse they train, we are on red alert and will hope to find a profit, if not from their 9 entries today then sooner rather than later...

JOCKEYS: Jamie Moore looks well placed to continue his good recent form, he has 5 rides tomorrow. Harry Cobden and Nico de Boinville both have 4 rides and there must be multiple winners from this trio grouping!

JOCKEY COLD LIST: Tom O'Brien is on the start of a losing run but his 0-11 could end quickly, he has 5 rides tomorrow.

OWNERS: J P McManus has 2 entries, whilst Munir & Souede have 3 and one imagines a winner being amongst those 5 entries.

12.20
GLIDE DOWN (A King) trainer has won 2 of the last 5, and 3 of the last 10 runnings, Gavin Sheen is 45% on hurdle favourites
SILVER SHADE (M Harris) beaten favourite last time out, formerly with M Johnston. Trainer currently 3-6 for 50%
DIRHAM EMIRATI (G L Moore) hot trainer, formerly with K P De Foy, hot jockey Jamie Moore rides 

12.55
ANOTHER BROWN BEAR (N Henderson) beaten favourite last time out, trainer 25% at the course
MILAN BRIDGE (P Nicholls) trainer 22% at the course and trainer has won the last 2 runnings. Harry Cobden rides

1.32
CHAMPAGNE COURT (J Scott) hot trainer shows profit of £38.86 when one runner at a meeting
LOCK'S CORNER (J O'Neill) weighted to win 140 > 130

2.05
MISTER FISHER (N Henderson) trainer has won 3 of the last 8 runnings and is 25% at the course
ROUGE VIF (P Nicholls) trainer has won both of the last 2 runnings and 22% at the course, Harry Cobden rides

2.40
MARIES ROCK (N Henderson) trainer has won 3 of the last 10 runnings, trainer 25% at the track, Nico de Boinville rides
DANS LE VENT (E Williams) drops from Grade 2 to Listed
GELLINO BELLO (P Nicholls) drops from Grade to Listed , Harry Cobden rides

3.15
CARIBEAN BOY (N Henderson) trainer 25% at the track
A TOI PHIL (G L Moore) hot trainer, drops from Grade 3 to Class 2, hot jockey Jamie Moore rides
WISHING AND HOPING (M Rowley) drops from Grade 2 to Class 2

3.50
FIRST STREET (N Henderson) drops from Grade 2 to Class 3, trainer 25% at the track, has won 3 of the last 10 runnings, Nico de Boinville rides
ROYAUME UNI (G L Moore) hot trainer and hot jockey combination.

Mick Fitzgerald on Kempton

It’s changed a fair bit in recent years, with the Polytrack crossings and all, but I’d still have to say it’s one of my favourite courses. It’s a great test and a fair test. You need a horse that travels and jumps, though, and one of the things you always notice around Kempton is that lots of runners are usually in contention turning in, but those same horses are often well spaced out by the time they get to the last. It’s only a short run from the home turn to that obstacle, but only horses that are travelling well are able to take a breather on that section, while those that have been struggling are having to work too hard to last home.
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