PACAFI (18 January 2022)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

FIRESTREAM 4.10 EXETER at 11/8 Open National Hunt Flat Race  (Class 5) 2m161y


Trainer Form: 4-12 for 33%          (10)     
National average: 21%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 20%             (10)        
RPR: 118                            (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Soft                (10)
Distance: 2m                        (10)
Jockey: Aidan Coleman               (10)
National Average: 18%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 24%             (10) 
Trainer/jockey combination: 26%     (10)
Total:                             (100)
Danger: The Turtle Said

Every box ticked and now has optimum conditions

Firestream has been placed in a NH flat race from two starts. He improved from his Ascot debut to be beaten 3½l by Clifton Bridge when second of 16 when the 3/1fav on his latest outing in a NH flat race over this course and distance (good to soft) in December last year. A repeat of that bare form may be good enough given the bumper was a strong one and probably better than the race tomorrow.

Furthermore, the ground is soft tomorrow, not good to soft, his gait and knee action told us he would prefer soft ground and on that basis alone we can expect him to improve 7lbs not taking into account his extra experience! It will take a big run from a newcomer to lower his colours! This looks the trainer's best chance of 4 runners at the course tomorrow!

Trainer form

Anthony Honeyball has his horses in fabulous form, his national average is 21% but he is scoring at 33% over the last 14 days. At Exeter over the past 5 years the trainer scores 8-41 for 20% but his winning combination with jockey Aidan Coleman shows a big 26% strike rate.

Of the three national hunt disciplines NHF form is the most specialised. We show the top 6 trainers who have some sort of chance of winning this race, once seen in print it reminds us of the differences, the math and the facts. We record the figures in current betting order:

A Honeyball (21%):  33-120 for 33%  +12%
K Lee (13%):         1-19  for  5%   -8%
E Williams (11%):    2-88  for  2%   -9% 
J Scott (13%):       6-58  for 10%   -3%
N Mulholland (12%)  13-117 for 11%   -1%
N Hawke (9%):        2-53  for  4%   -5%


Pimlico Point cost £160,000 and the market will tell us plenty though trainer Kerry Lee is more renown for her chasers and not NHF runners who show 1-15 in the last 5 years. Kitaway is the next in the market and trainer Evan Williams is 2-88 for just 2% so hard to imagine either of these having strong chances tomorrow! The Turtle Said is trained by Neil Mulholland and he is 13% with his NHF runners and probably the one to give our Pacafi most to do!


FIRESTREAM ran to a decent level when second in a big field over C&D last month and is the one to beat. Kitaway and Leissieres Express both displayed promise on debut and have the potential for better, while point winner Pimlico Point would need considering if the market speaks in his favour.


On this occasion we cannot be sure what is perceived value but given the above we must be on the north side. Our Pacafi has conditions to suit and is fit and well. He is probably about to run a personal best and improve on his last run where he was still a little green. We also note he was entered in a stronger Class 5 tomorrow at Newbury, but it looks as though the trainer did not want to take on the Alan King runner who beat him last time, or a Paul Nicholls runner for one of his high profile owners!




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