Mathematics is the governing force of horse racing betting!

The Racing Horse has been wagering on horses for over 55 years, and if there is one lesson we have learnt it is proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Every professional bettor/handicapper we have come across has a strategy or system in some form, which invariably includes the use of numbers and parameters underpinned by perceived value, in other words - mathematics.

Numbers are rooted then meticulously woven into wagering in perpetuity, so an understanding on how to capitalise/exploit numbers is everything! To be mathematically inclined is essential and a prerequisite to success. 

Mistaken belief that LUCK plays a part

The reality of betting was spelled out by the wonderful New England philosopher Ralph Waldo Emerson: "Shallow men believe in luck. Strong men believe in cause and effect." Since the inception of The Racing Horse in June 2011 it has never used the word luck in the context of a winning or losing bet, as long as it exists it NEVER will.

Luck NEVER enters any equation we are familiar with and besides, the word means too many things to too many people. Luck has zero memory or value, only fools consider it a variable, part, or constant in a wager. Better to learn your subject, work hard, stay focused and be positive, it is these elements that lead to positive results - it has absolutely NOTHING to do with luck!

Monte Carlo FALLACY!

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during a period of time, then it will happen less frequently in the future, presumably as a means of balancing nature. For example, a coin is tossed 5 times and all the results show heads, so during the 6th attempt the person may feel a tail is due, those that predict a tail have fallen for the fallacy. Of course, the probability of obtaining heads or tails remain the same, which is 1 in 2. The probability of getting 20 heads and then 1 tail, and the probability of getting 20 heads then another head are both 1 in 2,097,152. Therefore, it is equally likely to toss 21 heads as it is to toss 20 heads then 1 tail, when tossing a fair coin 21 times.

The use of the term 'Monte Carlo fallacy' originates from the most famous example of this phenomenon, which occurred in a Monte Carlo Casino on 18th August 1915. Then, a ball fell in black 15 times. Because of such an occurring, gambler's started backing on red but they fell foul to the fallacy as black turned up 26 times. This was an extremely uncommon occurrence, with a probability of around 1 in 33.6 million. Gamblers lost millions of francs betting against black, reasoning incorrectly that the streak was causing an imbalance in the randomness of the wheel, and that it had to be followed by a long streak of red.

In the world of betting most expect instant results and want changes to occur overnight, when that does not happen they lose faith then doubt what they have learned. The biggest mistake is to blame outside forces such as luck or other people for their misfortunes, apart from being counterproductive, these excuses perpetuate the cycle!

Four SOVEREIGN words

Betting is a business where professional gamblers accept four sovereign words - WIN, LOSE, PROFIT & LOSS, nothing else matters! They also accept the need to work with a working capital, an amount of money that is not scared, and one that has no emotional attachment.

Emotional resilience

Betting bank, money management, perceived value plus an edge are accommodated within the mathematics remit, so what other contrivances can be considered bedfellows for success? Emotional resilience plays a big part in any human endeavour, but a key factor in betting. Claiming this title asks the bettor to remove despondence, frustration, sadness, and even anger and rage from the psyche, something humans are not generally equipped to do. Emotions prevent us from being able to make decisions based on sound logic and reasoning, and very few can adapt or manage stressful situations or the consequential losing run.

Professionalism, dedication, attitude and adaptability

This brings us to professionalism, dedication and attitude. We know that if we are serious about winning like a professional, we need the correct approach and to act like a professional. Prerequisites include believing in yourself with zero doubt in the use of a strategy or system. Those who win will have a sound relationship with their betting ledger and spend as much time analysing their losses as their wins. On a personal note we have a post-mortem after every losing bet to see:

a) where we went wrong - if indeed we did go wrong

b) what can we do better next time.

A losing bet no longer consumes, it hurts but no longer consumes, but we are duty bound to revisit the losing bet the next day. It represents an opportunity to improve, but it is at this time one can be vulnerable and then act differently from before. It is critical the next bet is not affected or compromised from the loser or a run of losses.

So what tools are needed to make betting pay?

An understanding of mathematics, patience, emotional resilience and professionalism. This sounds obvious but if you asked all punters/bettors what an overround was, less than 5% would be able to explain it fluently. Effectively, this dismisses 95% of those who bet in one single sweep, meaning the vast majority are playing with money without understanding the rules of the game. 

To win from sports betting is the hardest task and we have tried to describe the main traits we believe are needed to have a chance of success.

Professionals also know when to adapt when the rules or edges changes. Adaptability comes with experience and those with mathematical skills will almost certainly get there quicker than others.

Saboteurs

Winning consistently from sports betting is difficult within itself, but to make matters worse there are saboteurs on every corner, some may even try to be helpful, but they are saboteurs nonetheless. So what are we talking about?

As in most things in life, three of the biggest problems in betting is misinformation, randomness and bias. One has to be a special type not to absorb at least some of the flotsam and jetsam spewed, these information streams care nothing for the receiver. Our advice is not to accept the conclusions of pundits, better to make your own mistake than those of others. In particular, most of those on our television screens purporting to help are promoting themselves. Posture and image are more important to them than relevance because they are not financially committed to the bet, they are best described as fluffers! Interesting to note they never mention a profit or loss account, or use the word ledger. The mute button is there for a purpose!

Just one example from 100, there is a silly man called Brian Gleeson who talks about odds on ITV Racing Channel, he makes lots of comments about the professional bettors and those "in the know" being in the betting ring! I can assure him those he refers to are not at the races and have not been so, post Betfair. Why would those in the know travel a distance to take poor odds? These people are at home or in their office with all their bookmaker and exchange accounts open, seeking perceived value, with live pictures and up to the second feeds.

What are the quickest ways to the poor house?

Some great sports bettors worked out the way to win by themselves the hard way, we did, but some had a top notch mentor to show them the ropes. Our best advice is look closely at how successful bettors work and try to understand their pathways/modus operandi. From there you can absorb, tweak and find your own path. A lifetimes betting tells us randomness, guesswork and laziness is the way to the poor house, betting whilst consuming alcohol will get you there much quicker. Our advice is always the same, work hard and use a strategy or system where you have defined criteria to work from. Only place the wager in a calm moment and only after the filters have been fully applied.

Formula for success re sports betting

Given our belief that mathematics are the governing force of horse racing betting, our advice is always to embrace and work with numbers and dismiss punditry.

Sports betting is a complex endeavour that requires one to adhere to certain principles but it is not rocket science. One has to adapt to a changing world but sports betting has a common denominator that will never change and we are going to share it: It is an EDGE + PERCEIVED VALUE = PROFIT.

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