PACAFI (Wednesday 4 May 2022)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | 3 Comments

EMOTION 6.00 Kempton at 7/4

 Unibet Supporting Safe Gambling Fillies' Novice Stakes (Class 5) 1m3f219y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 9-36 for 25%          (10)    
National average: 20%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 26%             (10)                                     
RPR: NA                
Distance: 1m2f+                     (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Good/Standard       (10)
Jockey: Cieren Fallon               (10)
National Average: 12%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 9%               (9)         
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 9%             (9)
Total:                              (88)
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Danger: Kingston Joy

Forget debut run, much better expected

Emotion is a Frankel filly and a half-sister to the smart 1¼m-1½m winner Morgan Le Faye and 12.5f winner Magnet.  The dam is a 11f-2½m (Prix du Cadran) winner. She was just too green to show much at Sandown 12 days ago but much better is expected here, especially given her Oaks entry. She will have to win this with a bit to spare for that entry to be considered seriously.

Below we are reminded of David Redvers (Qatar Racing) comments a year ago, heavily suggesting talent even as a 2yo, tomorrow our Pacafi is racing largely against unnraced 3yos in a Class 5 Novice race on the AW. We must accept she has either picked up a niggle along the way or been slow to come to hand.

David Redvers talks about Emotion in April 2021

Emotion is a Frankel filly with John and Thady Gosden, she's out of Molly Malone who was a two-miler but a Group One winner at two miles in France. It amazes me that I'm even mentioning her at this stage and I thought that she would be a 3yo, at best, but she goes extremely nicely and hope to see her in the autumn. We're living optimistically in the hope that she might be an Oaks filly.

 Timeform

  EMOTION could be a completely different proposition this time given her pedigree and that she was very green on debut recently. Debutantes Kingston Joy and Tunkwa Lake having something to recommend them, too. 

This could develop into a sprint for home, and Emotion could be well placed to capitalise: Of the better-fancied horses, Tunkwa Lake is most likely to be ridden furthest from the pace.

Value

We cannot know for sure whether the 7/4 is perceived value but we believe it will be! With Exciting News now a non-runner the each-way money has come for Kingston Joy who is a 27,000gns half-sister to useful sprinter Lord Of The Lodge, this race is almost 1m4f. We would like a nice paddock followed by market support, if she strips fitter and more knowing this time, she must start at shorter than the 7/4.

We have been nibbling at between 3.30 and 3.50 on Betfair Exchange and for an Oaks entry racing against unraced horses in a Class 5 Novice, this must surely represent value, all this is without talking about the John Gosden effect!

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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