MORTLACH 6.17 Huntingdon at 5/6

Doodles, Baker And Turner Novices' Handicap Chase (Class 4) 2m104y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 8-43 for 19%          (10)    
National average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 25%             (10)                                     
OR: 109                             (10)  
Distance: 2m                        (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Jockey: Paddy Brennan               (10)
National Average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 24%             (10)         
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 20%           (10)
Total:                             (100)
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Danger: Morgenstern

Unexposed and a point winner in Ireland, racing in a weak race

Mortlach is a son of Yeats and massively unexposed as a 7yo with just 4 runs under rules. He is a sizeable individual who has shown promise in a light career so far, readily winning a 19f Warwick maiden hurdle last month. He was a point win in Ireland so provides hope that he can prove at least as good over fences. Looks to have struck upon a weak race here.

Trainer form

Trainer Fergal O'Brien has his horses in decent form, his national average is 17% yet his returns for April show 13-69 for 19% and 10-50 for 20% for May. His record at Huntingdon in the last 5 years is impressive also scoring 19-77 for 25% (+30.55). His 5-year combination with jockey Paddy Brennan shows big figures also with 211-1062 for 20%. Within these numbers there are 200 second places so a very competitive combination indeed! Of the 43 UK racecourses he has ridden on in the same time period Brennan has his best numbers here showing 17-70 for 24% (+22.63)

Contender

Morgenstern is a €6,500 Ex-French 5yo gelding who came good for David Pipe with handicap chase win at Stratford over 2m3f on good ground last month. Did not appear to be racing with much zest when brought down at fifth fence on latest outing, but current mark is workable to be competitive if he is well after being badly brought down last time out.

Disgrace!

We were not impressed with how he was travelling on his last start before he was brought down. His jockey whipped him three of four times before the third fence and we think we know why, the horse needs a fecking break! This horse is just a 5yo yet raced 42 times already, we think they are running the guts out of him and that is a disgrace! Most of those races (31) were in France but David Pipe has not let up. Since late in November he has ran his charge 11 times, so tomorrow will be his 12th run. He has raced from 6f to 2m5½f and on firm ground to heavy ground. The horse must have a fabulous constitution to take that much racing and now he has to put that horrible fall (brought down) behind him.

We are going to look silly if Morgenstern bolts up but our comments regarding 43 runs for a 5yo still stand. I have sent an email to David Pipe hoping he lets up a little and that his horse comes home safe...

 Timeform

   It's impossible to ignore the claims of MORTLACH who won nicely over hurdles last time and likely has more to offer now chasing given his point background. Morgenstern can follow him home.

Value

The 5/6 looks to be just north of perceived value. We managed a little of 10/11 (our preferred price) but as we were posting the advice William Hill trimmed the price into 5/6. These days we can only get our stake on early with Bet365 or Betfair Sportsbook. Closer to the race we have more success getting our full stakes on, but we now do most of our work with the Betfair Exchange.

UPDATE Tuesday 06.00: We got up very early this morning hoping to secure better prices on the exchange but there has only been £229 wagered so far.

Wilfred has asked if we think there will be money for the David Pipe horse, our answer is we are not sure. What do we know? We know Pipe has only brought 18 horses to Huntingdon in the past 5 years scoring with 3 of them, but today he brings three, currently priced at 9/4, 5/4 and 9/4. He obviously means business and the third of these is Morgenstern the rival to the Pacafi. 

Mortlach traded at a high of 2.04 and Betfair SP of 1.99 when winning last time, a race in which it led.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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