NEWMARKET RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (July) Saturday 25 June 2022

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | 2 Comments

The Racing Horse offers our Newmarket Racecourse Template for Saturday 25 June 2022. Of the 7-race card there are 3 Handicaps, a Maiden, 2 Listed Races and a Group 3. The going is expected to be good, good to firm in places.

NEWMARKET (JULY) FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                    Handicap
2yo   48-109  44%   +1.40	6-18     33%    -4.99
3yo   23-53   43%   -8.61	69-213   32%   -34.31
4yo+   6-22   27%   -7.68	35-119   29%   -14.43
Total 77-184  42%  -14.90	110-350  31%   -53.73

TOP 5 TRAINERS NEWMARKET (July) 2021          +/-   E
C Appleby (29%)   16-43  37%  (+3.26)         +8%   4
R Hannon (12%)     9-63  14% (+16.40)         +2%   1
W Haggas (22%)     7-30  23%  (+3.17)         +1%   0 
A Balding (15%)    6-29  21% (+14.82)         +6%   3
J & T Gosden (21%) 6-52  12% (-29.63)         -9%   3 

TOP 5 TRAINERS NEWMARKET (July) 5 years       +/-   E
C Appleby (29%):      43-155  28%   -9.32     -1%   4
R Hannon (12%):       35-258  14%  -35.42     +2%   1
J & T Gosden (21%):   39-188  21%  -20.03     -1%   3   
C & M Johnston (15%): 28-166  17%   -9.96     +2%   1 
S Bin Suroor (21%)    19-63   30%  +24.35     +9%   1

TOP 5 JOCKEYS NEWMARKET (July) 2021           +/-   R
J Doyle (20%)   17-74   23%    -4.21          +3%   3   
W Buick (21%)   10-42   24%   -15.30          +3%   7  
M Ghiani (15%)   9-24   38%   +11.49         +23%   0
T Marquand (14%) 7-35   20%   +12.59          +6%   0
O Murphy (19%)   7-36   19%   +10.85          +0%   0 

TOP JOCKEYS NEWMARKET (July) 5 years          +/-   R
J Doyle (20%)	41-201  20%   -43.69          +0%   3
W Buick (21%)	33-138  24%   -26.20          +3%   7
A Atzeni (16%)	23-118  19%    -0.89          +3%   0 
O Murphy (19%)	23-123  19%   +25.12          +0%   0
R Havlin (16%)	19-96   20%   -22.81          +4%   3

TOP 5 OWNERS NEWMARKET (July) 5 years         +/-   E
Godolphin (24%)     63-237  27%   -4.11       +3%   5
H Al Maktoum (21%)  20-97   21%   -1.00       +0%   0
Cheveley Park (17%) 13-51   25%   +2.62       +8%   0
Moh Al Maktoum (15%) 9-39   23%  +19.37       +8%   0
Al Shaqab (15%)      8-25   32%  +10.50      +17%   0

HOT TRAINERS 25/05/2022 to 24/06/2022         +/-   E
J & T Gosden (21%) 23-89   26%   +4.36        +5%   3
A King (15%)       10-42   24%   +0.75        +9%   1
G Boughey (18%)    17-73   23%   -9.49        +5%   3
R Varian (20%)     17-78   22%   -4.40        +2%   1

TRAINER COLD LIST  SAW   E
D M Simcock (13%)   18   1
D Loughnane (11%)   18   1
A Balding (15%)     17   3
M Stoute (20%)      11   1

HOT JOCKEYS 25/05/2022 to 24/06/2022          +/-   R
W Buick (21%)  32-131  24%    -4.44           +3%   7
J Doyle (20%)  19-85   22%   +41.05           +2%   3
R Havlin (16%) 11-52   21%   -11.06           +5%   3

JOCKEY COLD LIST  SAW   R
J Crowley (19%)    26   4
C Shepherd (11%)   17   4

Fixtures:
Saturday 25 June 2022
Thursday 7 July 2022
Friday 8 July 2022
Saturday 9 July 2022

Friday's results not included...

FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Newmarket (July) show 187-534 for 35.02% (-68.63) so above the national average. Best strike rate category are 2yo winning favourites in non-handicaps showing 48-109 for 44% and a level stake profit of +1.40. Worst category are 4yo+ in handicaps with 35-119 for 29% (-14.43).

TRAINERS: Charlie Appleby is unique when it comes to the Newmarket Racecourses. He has a national average of 28% and somehow manages to match that huge figure at the headquarters of racing!

Rowley: 70-247 for 28% (+6.28)
July:   43-155 for 28% (-9.32)
Total: 113-402 for 28% (-3.04)

His figures above show it is possible to back his horses blind at these two courses and break even. With just a modicum of filtration a profit is enabled. Worth reminding ourselves these figures net after multiple entries, irrespective of jockey bookings and draw bias. Appleby knows what horses are suited to this course better than any other and yes, this includes the great John Gosden! Appleby has four runners on Saturday including FAIRY CROSS 1.00, REBEL'S ROMANCE 2.40 & KEMARI 2.40 and ART DU VA 3.15. Stop at a winner?

JOHN GOSDEN: Mathematics, context and relevance is everything in racing and we only show the figures of Team Gosden to show the dominance/skill/brilliance of Appleby.

Rowley: 52-281 for 19% (-46.83)
July:   39-188 for 21% (-20.03)
Total:  91-469 for 19% (-67.84)

There are no other trainers in the UK who can compare to Charlie Appleby and John Gosden, so when horses are entered for a Newmarket Race our first task is to check out their runners a couple of days before racing. Gosden has 3 runners in STOWELL 2.40, SUNRAY MAJOR 3.15 & MIMIKYU 3.50. Incidentally, Gosden will be aware of what is happening with his main rival, and the fact his personal strike rate has dipped seriously from 25% to 21% which is probably down to a number of reasons but it is down!

JOCKEYS: William Buick not only takes advantage of the ammunition provided by Appleby, but rides the two courses beautifully. His national average is 21% yet rides the Rowley course at 82-309 for 27% (+6.39), and the July course at 33-138 for 24% (-26.20). We can rightly compare these figures to the greatest jockey we have ever seen in Frankie Dettori who seems to have lost his way, more about him later in this piece!

JOCKEY COLD LIST: Jim Crowley has every chance of coming off the cold list tomorrow though at 0-26 he needs to!

OWNERS: Only Godolphin form our leader board have 5 runners at the course on Saturday, they are FAIRY CROSS 1.00, KEMARI 2.40, REBEL'S ROMANCE 2.40, ART DU VAL 3.15 & WARM SMILE 4.15.

Godolphin reign supreme at Newmarket! They have a national average of 24% yet score 27% at the course, and this strike rate includes multiple runners in the same race, and those from different trainers. The suggestion is if we are not backing a fancied Godolphin runner we are not backing against them!

BY THE WAY: We have been following the career so far of Benoit De La Sayette and we already have him in our plus column. He is currently 37-168 for 22% (+1.28) on all UK courses which is some start, and today he goes to Newcastle for 3 rides, but he is 2-3 for 67% (+0.99) on the July Course at Newmarket, and 8-31 for 26% for John Gosden - why isn't he there? Could he have ridden the Juddmonte runner Sunray Major 3.15? We note he wears first time headgear tomorrow, so perhaps the trainer thinks he may be suited more to the excellent James Doyle. Those rides at Newcastle include ISLAND BRAVE 3.30 at 20/1 (looks a big price and we have taken those odds with Bet365), THE ATTORNEY 4.38 at 11/2 & WINTER REPRISE 5.13 at 11/2.

BY THE WAY 2: All eyes will be on LEZOO 2.05 Newmarket for Ralph Beckett. She is Zoustar filly who cost €110,000 at the breeze-ups and made a winning start in 12-runner minor event at Bath over 5f on good ground a fortnight ago, doing well to catch an experienced rival that wasn't stopping. Will have no issues with this trip and she looks sure to progress She is the only ride this weekend for a certain Frankie Dettori and we can be absolutely certain she will receive a 100% in the saddle, and be ridden to achieve the best possible final placing! She must run a place at least and the 4/1bpg each way looks a sound wager with a stake saver on the current favourite MINNETONKA at 15/8. Jim Crowley rides this favourite and is currently 0-26 over 11 days.

BY THE WAY 3: We did see the John Gosden/Frankie Dettori thing coming for a little while now because members will know the importance we attach to mathematics in racing. For example on this July Course over the past 5 years, Frankie is 10-72 for 14% (-22.65) whilst stable jockey number 2 Rob Havlin is 19-96 for 20%. These comparative numbers do not make sense. The feeling here is Frankie has been riding horses more in a relaxed, casual and off the cuff way - and not percentages. You cannot do that for Gosden and his owners! The jockey is currently 1-22 for 4.55% and this space is going to be very interesting over the next month or so!

Sky bet offer money back as cash if finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the above race up to £10

1.00
FAIRY CROSS (C Appleby) trainer 29% NA and 28% at course, William Buick rides and 23% at course and 39% on favourites
DARK MAJESTY (C & M Johnston) Dark Angel progeny have won 73 on flat debut, Jack Mitchell rides

1.30
ASHKY (H & R Charlton) handicapper may have taken a chance with this filly, William Buick rides and 23% at course and 39% on favourites

2.05
MINNETONKA (R Hannon) trainer has won 2 of the past 10 runnings, Jim Crowley rides
LEZOO (R Beckett) see above comments, Frankie Dettori's only ride this weekend
ABSOLUTELYFLAWLESS (D Loughnane) beaten favourite last time out, Laura Pearson rides

2.40
KEMARI (C Appleby) 
trainer 29% NA and 28% at course, James Doyle rides
REBEL'S ROMANCE (C Appleby) 
trainer 29% NA and 28% at course, William Buick rides and 23% at course and 39% on favourites

3.15
SUNRAY MAJOR (J & T Gosden) headgear applied, James Doyle replaces Frankie Dettori
ART DU VAL (C Appleby) 
trainer 29% NA and 28% at course, William Buick rides

3.50
MIMIKYU (J & T Gosden) trainer 21% with horses running over 10f+ Rob Havlin rides

4.25
ARYAAH (G Boughey) beaten favourite last time out, William Buick rides
WARM SMILE (Saeed bin Suroor) beaten favourite last time out, trainer 22% with handicap debutants, Daniel Tudhope rides

JASON WEAVER - NEWMARKET JULY RACECOURSE

 The major difference between the Rowley Mile and the July Course is that, whereas the former is uphill all the way to the line, the latter levels off - almost falling away - after an initial climb. It’s a lovely track, every bit as nice for jockeys as it is for summer racegoers, but, when you’re riding, you have to be on weather-watch, as sometimes there’s a faster strip on the far side, near the hospitality marquees. The long straight means it’s a very fair course, with no pace bias, and it’s ideally suited to class horses.

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2 Responses to NEWMARKET RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (July) Saturday 25 June 2022

  1. Dave says:

    Evening Paul,
    Another good day.
    ‘BYTHEWAY’ Proved to be profitable again.
    Many thanks
    Dave

    • Paul Moon says:

      Dave

      Thank you for your support and your comments are of fantastic value to me! From now on we will think out loud via the BYTHEWAY!

      Thanks again, really appreciate your contributions!

      By the way, we are not certain at this stage but think 2 members landed the Placepot again using our Template nominations…

      Paul

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