PACAFI (Friday 27 October 2023)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

ZAYINA 5.15 Wolverhampton at 7/4

 Boost Your Acca At BetMGM Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 5)1m1f104y


€70,000 Y, €45,000 2yo; sixth foal; half-sister to winners Irshad (French 7.5f 2yo/KSA 1m2f; RPR 98), Edina (French 7f 2yo; 85) and Imera (French 8.5f 2yo/7f; 78); dam placed 9.5f/1m4f in France, out of 12.5f Listed winner

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 5-31 for 16%          (10)
National average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 15%             (10)
RPR: 87                             (10)
Optimum Ground: Good to soft         (9)       
Optimum Distance: 1m+               (10)
Jockey: Billy Loughnane             (10)
National Average: 15%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 20%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 20%         (10)  
Total:                              (99)

Taking success over a mile on a heavy track last week

Zayina has a 7lb penalty to overcome for a taking success and a personal best at Brighton last week, that was only her third start and she should be open to far more improvement as she goes up in distance. She is a late foal (23 April) and we were surprised by her strength and the way this 2yo filly finished her race off on heavy ground was quite taking, and if she takes to this surface she is going to very hard to beat! We would have preferred a few more resting day and not racing against a potential Gosden improver but she has size and looks strong. She is certain to develop into a very useful sort from 1m2f-1m4f next year and a horse to follow.

Trainer & Jockey Form

Newmarket trainer George Boughey has his horses ticking over nicely and registers a healthy national average of 17% and his combination with rising star jockey Billy Loughnane is 5-26 for 19% (-4.45). They have drawn stall 1 so Billy should not have to search for the rail, and even though this race is on the AW surface some of these juveniles will not get home strong at speed. Zayina has early speed also, so Billy can probably race her where he wants her. The jockey has already shown how well he rides Wolverhampton scoring 29-145 for a big 20% and a level stake profit of +£40.52 to a £1 stake. Within those figures are 14 second places and 26 third places, meaning 69-145 of his rides at the course finish in the first 3 places for 47.59% proving his competitiveness.


Some of the Gosden horses are improving massively for their debut run and we fully expect Eagle Angel to be in that category. This once-raced maiden was a fair fifth of 9 in minor event at Southwell (7.1f) on debut 51 days ago, when not knocked about. She is now significantly up in trip and improvement is certain. Her breeding suggests she might need a lot further next year given she is a full brother to Eagle Terrace, who won in a chase at 3m1f and over hurdles at 2m. We have placed a stake saver on this contender who will be well-ridden by Benoit De La Sayette. Either of the two nominated are probably going to be better than the Richard Hughes trained Faster Bee. 

Timeform View

This step up in trip promises to suit ZAYINA, who was strong at the finish when opening her account in a 1m Brighton novice. She is likely to take plenty of stopping on her all-weather debut, despite carrying a penalty. Across Earth and Hampden are both open to improvement and rate the main dangers in that order of preference, while Eagle Angel and Rogue King showed ability on their respective debuts and can do better in time.

Perceived Value

What is perceived value about this Pacafi? We are not sure on his occasion. Our nomination is now available at 15/8 and 2/1 might become available overnight or early tomorrow but we are happy to have these 2 against the field. The 13/2 for the contender was not really available, we tried to get on at that price with proxy bettors but failed, so took enough of the 5/1 to cover our stake on Zayina.

PACAFI Results 2023.

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