PACAFI (Thursday 2 November 2023)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

TO CATCH A THIEF 12.30 Wolverhampton at 8/11

Betuk. Home Of The Acca-Fenwa Novice Stakes  (Class 5) 1m1f104y


Third foal; half-brother to 1m2f AW winner Queen Of The Skies (RPR 94); dam 1m winner (97), half-sister to 1m4f Group 2 winner Frankly Darling, 1m4f Listed winner Our Obsession and Listed-placed 1m2f-1m6f winner First In Line

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 1-6 for 16%           (10)*
National average: 23%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 25%             (10)
RPR: 89                             (10)
Optimum Ground: Good/Standard       (10)       
Optimum Distance: 1m1f+             (10)
Jockey: Cieren Fallon               (10)
National Average: 12%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 14%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 18%         (10)  
Total:                             (100)

 Improving sort

To Catch A Thief is a son of Cracksman and a half-brother to 1m2f AW winner Queen Of The Skies (RPR 94), who showed ability without ever looking like justifying favouritism on debut. We note he was not given a hard time that day and promised to take a big step forward on his next outing. He subsequently showed more than his first time up when posting a solid third at Leicester in June, and a similar level of performance when keeping on in the final 1f to good effect should suffice. He has subsequently been gelded and very much the type to go on improving over middle distances.

Trainer Form

As always we look closely at trainer form and can report Haggas showing 8-59 for just 14% for October which is -8% below his national average. Apart from a winner at 6/1 from his last 8 rides there has been 3 second places at 12/5, 9/2 & 28/1 which confirms a level of form we need to wager!


Quantum Cat will run close to winning if he were to run anywhere near his official rating of 85, but the Kitten's Joy colt does have something to prove after finishing in ninth at Newmarket in April. The other 2 runners cannot be considered for a win or place finish!

 Timeform View

This looks a straightforward match between TO CATCH A THIEF and Quantum Cat. The former took a step forward from his debut effort when third at Leicester back in June and there's likely more to come back from a break/having been gelded.

Perceived value

We were hoping for 10/11 about the Pacafi given we are facing a Gosden runner, but after some thought decided to take the 8/11 and prices around that figure. Is this perceived value I hear you ask? Not sure, but we are on the likely winner!

Quantum Cat traded at a low of 9.00 and Betfair SP of 9.60 when losing last time, a race in which it raced prominently: To Catch A Thief traded at a low of 6.00 and Betfair SP of 9.40 when losing last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field.

PACAFI Results 2023.

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