KEMPTON AW Racecourse Template (Wednesday 4 December 2024)
December 3rd, 2024
Winning favourites last 5 seasons Non-handicaps Handicaps Hurdle 58 114 51% -2.98 61 157 39% +7.61 Chase 3 6 50% -1.47 56 180 31% -19.92 NHF 13 34 38% -6.47 0 0 TOTAL 74 154 48% -10.92 117 337 35% -12.30 Top 5 Trainers last 5 seasons +/- E Donald McCain (17%) 49-225 22% -3.52 +5% 4 Micky Hammond (9%) 26-223 12% +4.47 +3% 2 Brian Ellison (9%) 21-124 17% -18.90 +8% 1 Rebecca Menzies (11%) 19-147 13% -57.64 +2% 5 Sam England (13%) 17-105 16% -24.70 +3% 1 Top 5 Jockeys last 5 seasons +/- R Brian Hughes (18%) 76-311 24% -37.11 +6% 6 Sean Quinlan (12%) 32-214 15% -36.91 +3% 3 Henry Brooke (13%) 27-144 19% +18.34 +6% 0 Danny McMenamin (13%) 22-121 18% +73.00 +5% 5 Theo Gillard (11%) 14-59 24% +18.41 +13% 0 Top 5 Owners last 5 seasons +/- E John P McManus (17%) 11-74 15% +15.72 -2% 0 John Wade (12%) 9-57 16% -26.10 +4% 0 T G Leslie (18%) 7-23 30% -3.34 +12% 0 A B Hamilton (10%) 6-10 60% +38.00 +50% 0 Mrs S Smith (7%) 6-54 11% -2.25 +4% 0 Upcoming fixtures Tuesday 26 November 2024 Friday 6 December 2024
CONFIGURATION: The County Durham course is something of a specialist’s track, It is a left handed and undulating. Easy fences and one of the lowest casualty rates, fallers/unseats at the two fences in the home straight being especially rare. In theory, uphill finish should dictate that plenty of races change complexion late in the day but, in practice, that isn't the case, the run-in on the hurdles course being short and plenty having a tendency to pick up again when challenged on the chase track
MICK FITZGERALD on SEDGEFIELD: A fast, accurate jumper is ideally what you want to be on at Sedgefield. The fences aren’t difficult there, though, in fact they’re relatively easy, and, especially for summer racing, you can often get away with it on a horse that’s not the greatest of jumpers. It’s different in the middle of winter, when the ground can get testing, and, on days it’s like that, you see a lot of the jocks coming up the stands’ rail, particularly in hurdle races. That can prove a bit of a golden highway when underfoot conditions are soft.
WINNING FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Sedgefield over the last 5 years show 191-491 for 39% (-23.22) so a big +6% above the national average. Best category are winning hurdle favourites in non-handicaps scoring 58-114 for 51% (-2.98) whilst worst performing category are winning chase favourites in handicaps scoring 56-180 for 31% (-19.92) and a differential of 20%.
TRAINERS: Donald McCain (17%) is easily top trainer at the course scoring 49-225 for 22% (-3.52) so +5% above his national average, meaning a follow and filter advisement. He has 4 entries including PADDYS POLICY 12.55, LAHIRE 1.25, FINISK RIVER 2.30 & OLD BLUE EYES 3.30.
JOCKEYS; Brian Hughes (18%) is easily top jockey at the course scoring 76-311 for 24% so +6% above his national average. Riding for trainer McCain over the past 5 years, he scores at 22% and has now ridden 408 winners for this trainer. He rides 3 of McCains on Tuesday. The jockey has a strike rate of 24% at the course and has 6 rides including PADDYS POLICY 12.55, LAHIRE 1.25, TAKE CENTRE STAGE 2.00, BELVEDERE BLAST 2.30, BEAT THE EDGE 3.00 & OLD BLUE EYES 3.30.
Danny McMenamin (13%) has 5 rides and threatens to heavily feature in proceedings MAGHLAAK 12.55, LA QUARITE 1.25, SIX ONE NINE 2.00, BEBSIDE BANTER 3.00 & SMART BUCKS 3.30
OWNERS: None of the top owners at this course have an entry for this meeting.
RED FLAG: Rebecca Menzies (11%) might be the trainer to follow for this meeting. She has her horses in fabulous form and over the past 14 days has scored 7-27 for 26% and this measured against a national average of 11%. November shows her 9-31 for 29% (+18.83) and her win number is her highest ever in a calendar month. Her previous best was 7 (on three occasions) and with 6 days racing left in November she could easily score a 10th winner for a new personal best. As we go to post she has 5 runners for this meeting including VAL BASSETT & KINGSTON NARCISSUS 12.55, TAKE CENTRE STAGE 2.00, HARPER VALLEY 2.30 & SNAPAUDACIAHEROS 3.30.
Win or lose on Tuesday, the trainer deserves attention and should be monitored for the rest of this month at least, considering her exceptional form. She initially had 9 entries for this meeting and trains less than four miles from the course. From a winning standpoint, this is her second-best NH course after Newcastle. Another victory in November seems likely, potentially at attractive odds. Currently, she has 3 entries for Wetherby on Wednesday, 5 for Musselburgh on Thursday, and 8 across 3 courses on Friday. Jockey Ross Chapman seems to be her preferred choice this season, while Brian Hughes hasn't won in 7 starts for her, contrasting with the trainer and jockey's combination score of 29 winners at a 17% success rate.
12.55: 2m178y Vickers.Bet Proud To Support British Racing Novices' Hurdle (Class 4) (4yo+)
1.25: 2m178y Download The New Vickers.Bet Ios App Handicap Hurdle (Class 5) (3yo 0-100)
2.00: 2m77y Vickers.Bet Handicap Chase (Class 5) (4yo+ 0-100)
2.30: 2m3f188y Chris Blanckley Birthday Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-120)
3.00: 2m5f28y Vickers.Bet Independent Family Owned Bookmaker Handicap Chase (Class 5) (4yo+ 0-105)
3.30: 2m178y Paxtons No1 CaseIH Dealer In UK&Ireland Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Class 5) (4&5yo)
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