LINGFIELD AW Racecourse Template (Thursday 9 January 2025)
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Tagged Betting advice, Lingfield Racecourse Template, Pacafi, Racecourse Templates, The Racing Horse
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The Racing Horse offers our LINGFIELD AW RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Thursday 9 January 2025. There is an 8-race card containing 7 Handicaps and a Maiden Stake Race. The going for the Polytrack surface is expected to be standard to slow.
RACECOURSE TEMPLATES REVISITED
Winning favourites (last 5 years) Non-handicaps Handicaps 2yo 56 120 47% -3.91 18 42 43% +4.33 3yo 103 199 52% +5.89 125 412 30% -88.16 4yo+ 65 126 52% +22.94 237 792 30% -133.94 TOTAL 224 445 50% +24.93 380 1246 30% -217.77 Top 5 Trainers last 5 seasons +/- E Andrew Balding (15%) 53-236 22% +51.15 +7% 2 Tony Carroll (10%) 42-430 10% -106.94 +0% 7 Richard Hughes (14%) 36-214 17% -23.16 +3% 0 Archie Watson (13%) 36-216 17% -29.47 +4% 1 Roger Varian (20%) 35-137 26% -12.42 +6% 0 Top 5 Jockeys last 5 seasons +/- R David Probert (12%) 69-466 15% +114.69 +3% 3 Luke Morris (9%) 57-598 10% -96.04 +1% 0 Rossa Ryan (16%) 56-330 17% -6.44 +1% 0 Robert Havlin (15%) 52-317 16% -91.76 +1% 0 Jack Mitchell (16%) 50-242 21% +7.09 +5% 4 Top 5 Owners last 5 seasons +/- E Godolphin (25%) 37-111 33% +10.78 +8% 0 Shadwell Estate (22%) 12-42 29% -5.18 +7% 0 Robert Moss (11%) 12-90 13% +78.69 +2% 0 Power Geneva Ltd (13%) 10-55 18% -5.33 +5% 0 Canisbay B'stock (8%) 10-83 12% -21.25 +4% 1 Upcoming fixtures Thursday 9 January 2025 Friday 10 January 2025 Sunday 12 January 2025 Monday 13 January 2025 Saturday 18 January 2025 Forthcoming Racecourse Templates Wolverhampton AW (Saturday 11 January) TBC TBC Wincanton (Thursday 16 January 2025)

CONFIGURATION: Lingfield’s left-handed all-weather track is laid out inside the turf track and, measuring just less than a mile and a quarter round, is essentially sharp in nature. This, along with how the races often pan out ensures that stamina is rarely at a premium and strong-travelling types with a turn of foot are often favoured. Predominantly flat, there is a slight downhill turn in to the straight. At shorter trips, prominent racers tend to outperform those ridden more patiently, though there seems little advantage over further. Lingfield's surface is Polytrack.
JASON WEAVER: Lingfield’s 1m 2f all-weather start is a tough one, very draw-dependent. The same is true of the 5f and 6f starts. I always think it’s a track that lends itself to riding in the ‘third wave’. In races over 1m, for example, the first wave will go with maybe 5f left, round the initial turn, while the second wave will kick into the home straight. The third wave - the George Baker wave - usually attacks at the 1f pole and often comes out best. You don’t want to be way out of your ground, but patience can pay.
WINNING FAVOURITES: Lingfield AW figures tells us that winning favourites in non-handicaps perform superbly and record 224 winners from 445 races for a strike rate of 50% and a level stake profit of +£24.93. Even 2yo winning favourites in handicaps record 18-42 for 43% and a profit of +£4.33. The worst areas for winning favourites are clearly 3yo & 4yo+ in handicaps which returns 362-1204 for 30.07% and a level stake loss of -£222.10.
- Over the past 5 years, winning favourites show 604-1691 for 35.72% so nearly 3% above the national average, though a level stake loss to SP of -£192.84 to a £1 win stake.
- Winning favourites in non-handicaps score at 50%
- Winning favourites in handicaps score at 30%
- Best category are 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps 103-199 for 52% (+5.89)
- Worst category are 4yo+ winning favourites in handicaps 237-792 for 30% (-133.94)
- Differential between best and worst category is a huge 22%
- Top trainer at the course is Andrew Balding (15%) who scores at +7% above his national average and shows a level stake profit of +£51.15 to a £1 level stake
- Top jockey at the course is David Probert (12%) who scores +3% above his national average and shows a level stakes profit of +£114.69 to a £1 level stake
- Godolphin (25%) are the leading owners at the course scoring at 33% so +8% above their national average and a level stake profit of +£10.78 to a £1 level stake
- Best Bet: LEFT OVER LOVE 1.28 Lingfield at 4/5 (PACAFI STATUS)
TRAINERS: Trainer Andrew Balding (15%) has 2 runners on Thursday including CHARGING BULL 1.28 & BERKSHIRE KAMEO 1.58 and both to be ridden by Jason Watson and not David Probert.
Tony Carroll (10%) sends 7 runners where he doubles-up in a couple of races. His runners include MOON OVER THE SEA & DOUGLAS DC 12.28, POETIC FORCE 12.58, HINT OF HUMOUR 1.28, INIT TOGETHER 3.07, SEND IN THE CLOUDS & DANEHILL STAR 3.39
JOCKEYS; David Probert (12%) has fabulous figures at Lingfield AW contextually speaking. He has 4 rides but none for Andrew Balding. His combination with Balding shows 156-1022 for 15% winning £3,721,852 in prize money, including in those figures are 149 second places proving competitiveness. On this occasion he does not ride for Balding despite being top jockey at the course, instead he rides LOST IN TIME 12.28, DREAM VOYAGE 1.58 & CRACKING FILLY 3.39
Jack Mitchell (16%) is in good form and has 4 rides including KNOCKBREX 11.58, ROCK N ROLL ROCKET 1.58. MASTER OF COMBAT 2.32 & ROYAL OBSERVATORY 3.39
OWNERS: Only Canisbay Bloodstock (8%) has an interest for this meeting in last time out C&D winner TADREEB 12.58 trained by Rob Millman (13%) and Oliver Searle (5lb) rides. The 7yo Oasis Dream gelding won on his first start for his new stable and looks likely to follow up if in the same mood.
11.58: 1m2f Handicap (C Gamble Responsibly At BetUK Handicap (Class 4)
- Winning favourites 30%
- KNOCKBREX (C Johnston) winner in the last 7 days, carries penalty, long traveller 270-miles, trainer currently 5-16 for 31%, Jack Mitchell rides
- EPSOM FAITHFUL (P Phelan) 8yo mare who won here 3 times in 2024 and is a C&D winner, Paddy Bradley rides
12.28: 1m4f BetUK: It's Where The UK Bets Handicap (Class 6)
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- Winning favourites 30%
- ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL (I Furtado) beaten favourite last time out, Elle-May Groot (5) rides
- PARADOXICAL GREY (J Candish) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, trainer currently 12-50 for 24%, Warren Fentiman (7) rides
- KHANGAI (J Owen) winner in the last 7 days, trainer currently 15-69 for 22%, trainer 26% in winter, wide draw a negative. Jordan Williams (5) rides
12.58: 7f1y Win £1M With BetMGM's Golden Goals Handicap (Class 5)
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- Winning favourites 50%
- TADREEB (R Millman) C&D winner in the last 7 days and won with a bit to spare after being off for a break, Oliver Searle (5) rides
- POETIC FORCE (A Carroll) C&D winner, weighted to win 77 > 66, Jack Doughty (3) rides
1.28: 6f1y Free Bets With BetUK Bet Club Restricted Maiden Stakes (Class 5)
- Winning favourites 52%
- LEFT OVER LOVE (R Hannon) beaten favourite last time out and very strong in the market, Sean Levey rides
- CHARGING BULL (A Balding) trainer 22% at the track and his runners often improve for a run, shaped well on debut, Jason Watson rides (0-22)
1.58: 6f1y Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap (Class 4)
- Winning favourites 30%
- CARBINE HARVESTER (W Haggas) not fully extended when scoring at Southwell 11 days ago, has penalty seeking hat-trick. Trainer 25% at the course and 21% with sprinters. Harry Burn (3) rides
- SERGIO PARISSE (C Cox) beaten favourite last time out, drops from Class 2 to Class 4, Richard Kingscote rides
- DREAM VOYAGE (H Palmer) drops from Group 3 to Class 4, David Probert rides
2.32: 1m1y Boost Your Acca At BetMGM Handicap (Class 4)
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- Winning favourites 30%
- MASTER OF COMBAT (K Frost) beaten favourite last time out, weighted to win 79 > 76, Jack Mitchell rides
- BOWOOD (I Furtado) ran super race to finish second 11 days ago, must go close with a better start, though not won off this rating, Elle-May Groot (5) rides and her allowance is a big help
3.07: 1m2f £30 In Free Bets With BetUK Handicap (Div I) (Class 6)
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- Winning favourites 30%
- COME ON JOHN (J Owen) beaten favourite last time out, weighted to win 59 > 55, trainer currently 15-69 for 22% and 26% in winter, Jordan Williams (5) rides
- DUBAI HARBOUR (P Phelan) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, Paddy Bradley rides
- INIT TOGETHER (A Carroll) winner in the last 7 days on debut for new trainer, Oisin Orr rides
3.39: 1m2f £30 In Free Bets With BetUK Handicap (Div II) (Class 6)
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- Winning favourites 30%
- ROYAL OBSERVATORY (K Frost) beaten favourite last time out, Jack Mitchell rides
- FOREVER PROUD (J Owen) C&D winner, winner in the last 7 days, trainer currently 15-69 for 22% and 26% in winter, Jordan Williams rides
- SIMPLY GORGEOUS (N King) weighted to win 56 > 47, Trevor Whelan rides (0-21)