WOLVERHAMPTON AW Racecourse Template (Monday 13 January 2025)

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The Racing Horse offers our WOLVERHAMPTON AW RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Monday 13 January 2025. There is a 7-race card containing 6 Handicaps and a Maiden Stake Race. The going for the Tapeta Surface is expected to be standard.

Winning favourites (last 5 years)
Non-handicaps                     Handicaps
2yo    89-213	42%    -27.47	  34-107     32%     -6.09
3yo   141-286	49%    -12.89	  206-628    33%    -82.41
4yo+   63-151	42%	+4.24	  387-1230   31%   -112.75
TOTAL 293-650	45%    -36.12	  627-1965   32%   -201.25

Top Trainers last 5 years                          +/-   E
Tony Carroll (10%)	80-852	  9%	-202.50    -1%   5
Mark Loughnane (10%)	69-601	 11%	 -92.64    +1%   5
Michael Appleby (11%)	66-509	 13%	 +46.13    +2%   1
George Boughey (16%)	57-366	 16%	 -43.72    +0%   0
David Evans (11%)	51-415	 12%	-110.59    +1%   4 
   
Top 5 Jockeys last 5 years                         +/-   R
Rossa Ryan (17%)	122-580	 21%	 +54.37    +4%   0 
Luke Morris (9%)	98-837	 12%	-167.43    +3%   0 
Daniel Muscutt (14%)	670-407	 17%	 -52.84    +3%   0 
David Probert (13%)	69-586	 12%	-111.94    -1%   4 
Billy Loughnane (14%)	68-408	 17%	  -0.06    +3%   0  

Jockeys 2024
Rossa Ryan (17%)        40-173   23%     +32.13    +6%   0
 
Top 5 Owners last 5 years                          +/-   E
Godolphin (26%)	       41-139	 29%	 -22.23    +3%   0
Saeed Manana (17%)     19-83	 23%	 +10.43    +6%   0
Amo Racing (15%)       16-92	 17%	 -11.17    +1%   0
Sheikh A Maktoum (23%) 15-43	 35%	  +8.16   +12%   0
Power Geneva (13%)     15-104	 14%	 -11.80    +1%   1

Upcoming fixtures:		
Monday 13 January 2025	
Saturday 18 January 2025	
Monday 20 January 2025		
Saturday 25 January 2025

Forthcoming Racecourse Templates
Wolverhampton AW (Monday 13 January 2025)
Kempton AW (Wednesday 15 January 2025)
Wincanton (Thursday 16 January 2025)

CONFIGURATION: The all-weather course at Wolverhampton forms a flat, left-handed oval circuit of just under a mile in length. The bends are fairly sharp and with a straight of under 2f in length it favours horses with the ability to hold a good position as opposed to those who need time to find full stride.

JASON WEAVER: Wolverhampton’s 5f, 7f and extended 1m starts can be tricky from a jockey’s point of view, because they’re very much draw-dependent. It’s a big advantage being among the low, left-hand numbers. The 1m 4f start can also be a slight problem, but at least from there you’ve got a longer trip to get sorted out. Nobody went round the inside in the early days and, while I’m not sure it’s a disadvantage to be there now, most jocks still shy away from that rail. It’s a tight course, but well laid-out and very fair.

WINNING FAVOURITES:  Despite the poor quality of racing at Wolverhampton, winning favourites generally have high strike rates, particularly in non-handicap, low-tier races. The wisdom of the crowd is clearly in play and working at this racecourse, and it certainly pays to wager late here or even better just before the off. It's important to note that the 5f, 7f, and extended 1m starts can be challenging for jockeys, and the 1m4f start may also present difficulties. Nevertheless, the high strike rate persists despite these adverse draw conditions. The substantial sample size at this course lends much credibility to the data, with absolutely no signs of fatigue!

  • Over the past 5 years, winning favourites show 920-2615 for 35.18% so nearly 3% above the national average, though a level stake loss to SP of -£237.37 to a £1 win stake.
  • Winning favourites in non-handicaps score at 45%
  • Winning favourites in handicaps score at 32%
  • Best category are 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps 141-286 for 49% (-12.89)
  • Worst category are 4yo+ winning favourites in handicaps 387-1230 for 31% (-112.75)
  • Differential between best and worst category is a huge 18%
  • Top trainer at the course is Tony Carroll (9%) based on volume, not on quality
  • Top jockey at the course is Rossa Ryan (17%). His 5-year figures show 122-579 for 21% (+55.37) suggesting each of his rides should be processed and filtered.
  • Godolphin (26%) are the leading owners at the course scoring at 31% so +5% above their national average.
  • BEST BET: AMAYSMONT 8.00 at 5/1 (Bet365) EACH WAY. Jack Mitchell rides and is 24-131 for 18% (+63.70) for the trainer Kevin Frost whose national average is 9%. Stall 2 to help get an early pitch.
  • The 6.30 Novice Stakes Race is a strange race indeed, at least for us! TRH had the filly REBEL STAR as just about the favourite, but as we go to post she is 15/8 whilst ROSENPUR is 10/11 - we must be missing something or perhaps something is amiss with the horse! We have taken prices between 3.95 and 5.2 on the exchange. Meanwhile, Patrick Chamings runs FRANCISCO in the same race, and this horse is owned by Andrew Balding, been off the track for 433 days and ridden by someone called Baz, who has ridden just 1 winner! TRH could look very silly after this race but Rosenpur is a Class 6 Handicapper and 0-17, ran second 7 times though trained by an in form Jenny Candlish. Over this 5f dash the filly will have a chance of taking the rail from stall 1 and with 3 runs under her belt should now be able to produce a personal best to date.

TRAINERS: Fresh from a win double on Saturday, top trainer at the track Tony Carroll (10%) has 5 runners including SCYLLA 5.30, MY GENGHIS 6.00, RIVER WHARFE & AUTUMN ROSE 8.00 and CELEBRATING ETHEL 8.30

Mark Loughnane (10%) also has 5 entries including APACHE STAR 6.00, INVISIBLE SPEED 7.00, LAND LOVER 7.30, TRIGGERED 8.00 & UNDER FOX 8.30

JOCKEYS; David Probert (13%) is the only jockey from the top five in action, he has 4 rides including MAHARAJAS EXPRESS 6.00. HAVANA SKY 7.00, PRINCE OF BEL LIR 7.30 & PORT NOIR 8.30

OWNERS: The runners of the top owners at a course should always be processed, they are a good source of winners. Tomorrow, only Power Geneva (13%) have an interest and they run the 8yo gelding STRATEGIC FORTUNE 8.30 trained by John Butler (9%) and ridden by George Buckell (8%) who claims 3lbs but currently 0-53.

RED FLAG: In January 2024 upwardly mobile James Owen (18%) extended his licence out of his Newmarket stables to a combined licence when adding flat horses to his national hunt string. He could not have expected such a fabulous start to his training career in both codes. His flat horses scored 63-362 for 17% (+43.58) in 2024 and just 12 days into January 2025 he shows 5-16 for 31% (-0.63). Sean D Bowen has teamed up particularly well with the trainer and their combination shows 25-97 for 26% (+37.50), with Hector Crouch chipping in with 9-24 for 38% (+27.83). He has 2 runners at Wolverhampton today in CARLTON 5.30 & FOREVER PROUD 8.30. His 2 NH season numbers are equally impressive showing 83-385 for 22%. He has some strong connections within the sport, and this year we can expect him to rise further!

5.30: Boost Your Acca At BetMGM Apprentice Handicap  (Class 6) 1m5f219y

  • Winning favourites 31%
  • CARLTON (J Owen) winner of 5 races from 1m4f to 1m6f on the AW (4 PO) seeking 5-timer for trainer 26% in winter, NA of 22%, Jack Dace (5) rides 
  • DAARIS (K Frost) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, Oscar Palmer (5) rides
  • FURTHER MEASURE (M Murphy) C&D winner, last time out winner, Warren Fentiman (5) rides

6.00: Gamble Responsibly At BetUK Handicap (Class 6) 5f21y 

  • Winning favourites 31%
  • MAHARAJAS EXPRESS (I Williams) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, David Probert rides
  • BURABACK (D Shaw) course winner, caught the eye over C&D from a poor draw last week, Joanna Mason rides 

6.30: £30 In Free Bets With BetUK Novice Stakes (Class 5) 5f21y

  • Winning favourites 42%
  • REBEL STAR (R Cowell) receives 5lbs from her rivals so hard to beat, George Downing rides (PACAFI STATUS)
  • ROSENPUR (J Candlish) now a 16-race maiden, has filled the runner-up berth on his last 4 outings, now drops in distance. George Wood rides (PACAFI STAKE SAVER)

7.00: BetUK It's (Class 4) Where The UK Bets Handicap (Class 4) 6f20y

  • Winning favourites 31%
  • KITAAB (P Kirby) beaten favourite last time out, handily weighted, Cam Hardie rides
  • REBEL PATH (S Williams) comfortable winner last time out, 4lb rise fair, Olivia Haines (7) rides (just 3 winners to date)
  • HAVANA SKY (E Dunlop) C&D winner, 5 consecutive wins before last start 4th, David Probert rides 

7.30: Weekly £5 Free Bet With BetUK Handicap (Class 5) 6f20y 

  • Winning favourites 31%
  • NELSON GAY (M Dods) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, Sean Kirrane rides
  • BEAUZON (I Williams) C&D winner, Richard Kingscote rides
  • PROFESSOR TICKLE (D Loughnane) ran respectably from widest draw over C&D last week, better draw this time, Taryn Langley (7) rides

8.00: Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap (Class 6) 7f36y 

  • Winning favourites 31%
  • AMAYSMONT (K Frost) 7 AW wins, C&D winner, latest win at Chelmsford in November. Respectable 4 of 11 in Southwell handicap 15 days ago, place chance at least, Jack Mitchell rides. 2025 shows jockey 6-22 for 27% 
  • TRIGGERED (M Loughnane) 9yo, C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, Mason Paetel (7%) rides and is 0-23 and just 1 career win from 38 rides
  • KALGANOV (M Dods) tenderly-handled Newcastle 8th last time out, on handy mark down in grade, stall 12 a negative, Sean Kirrane rides 

8.30: Extra Winnings With BetUK Acca Club Handicap (Class 6) 1m1f104y 

  • Winning favourites 31%
  • FOREVER PROUND (J Owen) course winner, form figures read 12121, twice a winner here recently, trainer 26% in winter. Jordan Williams (5) rides
  • PORT NOIR (R Stephens) C&D winner, trainer +£131.32 when one runner at a meeting, David Probert rides 
  • STRATEGIC FORTUNE (J Butler) 3-time C&D winner, George Buckell (3) rides 

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk, and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose

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