KEMPTON AW Racecourse Template (Wednesday 15 January 2025)

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The Racing Horse offers our KEMPTON AW RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Wednesday 15 January 2025. There is an 8-race card containing 5 Handicaps, a Novice Stakes Race and 2 Maiden Fillies' Stake Races. The Polytrack is expected to ride standard to slow.

Winning favourites (last 5 years)
Non-handicaps                     Handicaps
2yo    99-260	38%    -45.24	  38-90	     42%    +12.04
3yo   124-248	50%	-9.80	  142-410    35%    -12.00
4yo+   40-92	43%	-2.87	  213-657    32%    -47.21
TOTAL 263-600	44%    -57.91	  393-1157   34%    -47.17

Top Trainers last 5 years                          +/-   E
Andrew Balding (15%)	74-484	 15%	 -38.91    +0%   0
Charlie Appleby (29%)	62-198	 31%	 -44.65    +2%   0
Roger Varian (20%)      58-226	 26%	 -19.77    +6%   1
J & T Gosden (21%)	57-281	 20%	 -52.37    -1%   0
Richard Hannon (11%)	45-389	 12%	-118.20    +1%   2
   
Top 5 Jockeys last 5 years                         +/-   R
Oisin Murphy (20%)	88-412	 21%	-70.15     +1%   0
Daniel Muscutt (14%)	83-564	 15%   -145.96     +1%   3
David Probert (13%)	80-627	 13%	 -2.82     +0%   0
Richard Kingscote (13%)	67-500	 13%   -107.10     +0%   3
Rossa Ryan (17%)	65-448	 15%	-65.85     -2%   0
 
Top 5 Owners last 5 years                          +/-   E
Godolphin (26%)	      82-306	27%    -84.85      +1%   0
Juddmonte (23%)	      21-77	27%	-9.07      +4%   0
Shadwell Est (22%)    21-84	25%	-3.11      +3%   0
Opulence Thor (19%)   18-61	30%	+9.10     +11%   0
King Power (12%)      17-96	18%    -36.27      +6%   1

Upcoming fixtures:		
Wednesday 15 January 2025		
Monday 20 January 2025	
Wednesday 22 January 2025	
Wednesday 29 January 2025	
Wednesday 5 February 2025	

Forthcoming Racecourse Templates
Kempton AW (Wednesday 15 January 2025)
Wincanton (Thursday 16 January 2025)
Lingfied AW (Saturday 18 January 2025)

CONFIGURATION: Kempton is a right-handed, Polytrack, flat, oval-shaped course with two loops. The inner circuit, used for races over five and ten furlongs is sharp and has a finishing straight of just under two furlongs, favouring the speedy, handy type, markedly so over the minimum trip. The turn on the outer course is more sweeping and the straight is approximately three furlongs long, making for a fairer test. Over both five and six furlongs, there is a relatively short run to the first bend.

JASON WEAVER: The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics.

WINNING FAVOURITES: The Kempton Template contains a big sample, and once again it is prudent to process 3yo favourites in non-handicaps, a favoured area for TRH.

  • Over the past 5 years, winning favourites show 656-1757 for 37.34% so over 4% above the national average, though a level stake loss to SP of -£105.08 to a £1 win stake.
  • Winning favourites in non-handicaps score at 44%
  • Winning favourites in handicaps score at 34%
  • Best category are 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps 124-248 for 50% (-9.80)
  • Worst category are 4yo+ winning favourites in handicaps 213-657 for 32% (-47.21)
  • Differential between best and worst category is a huge 18%
  • Top trainer at the course is Andrew Balding (15%) largely based on volume.
  • Top jockey at the course is Oisin Murphy (20%).
  • Godolphin (26%) are the leading owners at the course scoring at 27%. They score 4-times more than their nearest challenger!
  • BEST BET: ONLY ONE BLUE 6.00 at 11/10 (Bet365) and considered for Pacafi status. The 3yo Blue Point filly was fully expected to win on debut and backed accordingly. She faced the breeze throughout the race, and had she found some cover would have won, she is certain to know more today! Looks to have a Haggas improver to beat.

TRAINERS: There is not much action coming from the Trainer's Leader Board though Roger Varian (20% has one runner whilst Richard Hannon (11%) has 2. Hannon has his horses in form and has scored 2 winners from his last 4 runners at 7/1 and 20/1. He has an interesting filly running in ONLY ONE BLUE 6.00 and she looks to have a fabulous chance. Initially we wanted a price closer to 6/4 given she has a William Haggas horse to beat, we are considering our options. His other runner GEMMARI 8.00 also has a winning chance, both to be ridden by Sean Levey.

Sir Mark Prescott (17%) is in the doldrums! TRH doubts he is remotely worried as he shows 0-36 over a period of 82 days, and we cannot remember a run like this even though we are racing in winter! His last winner was in October, that month he scored just 3-46 for 7% (-33.38). He has 2 runners for this meeting and he looks destined to hit 0-38. By the way, at Kempton, this extraordinary man has extraordinary figures scoring just 5-99 for 5% at Kempton over the last 5 years? How is that possible? His all time strike rate at this course is 11%, so there was a time when he scored much higher, seems he is not competitive at Kempton AW anymore and uses the course as part of his training regime. Suffice it to say his numbers are being recorded in our updated log called 'since a winner' but he is not a trainer suited to the Pacafi Strategy. Check these numbers out:

2025:  0-6       0%     -6.00
2024: 44-252 17% -79.67
2023: 41-240 17% -87.19
2022: 32-210 15% -5.55
2021: 42-232 18% -69.72

JOCKEYS; There are 2 leader-board jockeys with 4 rides between them. Danny Muscutt (14%) has 2 rides including LEADENHALL STREET 5.00 & BEAUEN ARROWS 6.30, whilst Richard Kingscote (13%) rides include GAIETY MUSICAL 7.00 & ABSTRACT ART 8.00.

OWNERS: Only King Power (12%) has a runner at the course tomorrow in INVINCIBLE MELODY 5.00 trained by Ralph Beckett and ridden by Hector Crouch.

Tom Marquand (15%) and Hollie Doyle (14%) will be riding at the meeting to add some spice to proceedings. Marquand has just won on 3 of his last 4 rides in Japan in big money races and now has 6 rides including COUL ANGEL 5.00, PURPLE RAINBOW 5.30, MYSTERY OF LOVE 6.00, MORINDO 6.30, MIDSUMMER MUSIC 7.00 & CHOREOGRAPHIC and looks certain to ride at least 1 winner. The jockey scores 15% at the course, a figure that looks a tad shy if measured against ability. Hollie Doyle has been riding in Japan also, but not riding winners! Disappointingly, she shows 0-19 over the last 41 days, though her last ride was on a 59/1 second place when beaten by her husband Tom, who rode the 4/1 winner. She has 4 rides at this meeting including PINMONEY 5.00, BLUE WONDER 5.30, NEXT TRICK 7.00 & SWEET FANTASTIC 7.30. TRH senses a determined figure back on British soil! Her strike rate at the course is 14% so both jockeys match their national averages.

4.25: Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Amateur Jockeys' Handicap (Class 6) 6f

  • Winning favourites 32%
  • MCCAULEY'S TAVERN (M Appleby) dual C&D winner and now dipped below last winning mark, Simon Walker rides 2nd at 3/1
  • BIG BARD (G & J Moore) well backed when 6 of 12 in C&D 42 days ago, Ben Pollard rides at 40% when one ride at a meeting WINNER at 4/1
  • COLLUSION (D Cunha) has the best last time out form running for new stable, makes Polytrack debut. Fletcher Yarham rides
  • Exacta £16.50 & CSF £16.56

5.00: Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Novice Stakes (Class 5) 6f 

  • Winning favourites 50%
  • MACEDONIAN (S & E Crisford) trainer 25% in winter, Callum Shepherd rides
  • COUL ANGEL (M Appleby) beaten favourite last time out, open to progress, Tom Marquand rides WINNER at 7/1
  • CRESSIDA WILDES (P McEntee) sets the standard back in a novice, up in trip to suit and Polytrack debut. Luke Morris rides 3rd at 11/1

5.30: Free Bet With Unibet's Betbuilder Rebound Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 5) 1m

  • Winning favourites 50%
  • PURPLE RAINBOW (W Haggas) decent start to her career when 2nd at Wolverhampton, step up in trip to suit. Tom Marquand rides and 36% on favourites WINNER at 5/6 
  • ARABIAN LEOPARD (D Simcock) 150,000gns 2yo, again showed promise 4 months on from her debut when 4th here 6 weeks ago, Callum Shepherd rides 3rd at 15/8
  • MEHMAS SHY ANGEL (R Hughes) green again on second start, extra furlong to help, form pick, Finley Marsh rides

6.00: Free Bet With Unibet's Betbuilder Rebound Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 45) 1m

  • Winning favourites 50%
  • MYSTERY OF LOVE (W Haggas) trainer 21% at the course and 21% with horses 7f to 10f, 3 of 9 in Southwell Novice over 7f 36 days ago, needing stiffer test and still green. Should have more to offer still.Tom Marquand rides 3rd at 5/2
  • ONLY ONE BLUE (R Hannon) beaten favourite last time out, should improve. Sean Levey rides

6.30: Get Daily Price Boosts At Unibet Handicap (Class 6) 1m 

  • Winning favourites 32%
  • UNITED FORCE (C Hobson) 3-15 last year and last time out winner, stall 2, Marco Ghiani rides 
  • CHERRY KING (S Williams) C&D beaten favourite favourite last time out, first time cheek pieces, Sean Levey rides 2nd at 9/2
  • STELLA HOGAN (M Appleby) course winner, beaten favourite last time out, trainer +£72.10 when using first time head gear. Jason Watson rides 0-35 WINNER at 7/2
  • Exacta £22.00 & CSF £19.03

7.00: Unibet Zero% Mission Fillies' Handicap (Class 5) 1m 

  • Winning favourites 32%
  • HELP ME RHONDA (J Fanshawe) good vibes when opening her account for trainer over C&D last time, form working out well, she can make light of a 2lb weights rise and follow up, Kaiya Fraser (3) rides
  • NEXT TRICK (A Watson) formerly with D Weld, changed hands for 70,000gns, market check from stall 2, Hollie Doyle rides 3rd at 11/4
  • MIDSUMMER MUSIC (R Teal) landed 9-runner handicap at this C&D 42 days ago, Tom Marquand rides

7.30: Happy 60th Birthday Peter George Handicap (Class 5) 7f 

  • Winning favourites 32%
  • SWEET FANTASTIC (H Palmer) The one to beat, makes 178-mile trip for trainer +£32.08 with horses in first time headgear, close 3rd on handicap debut. Hollie Doyle rides WINNER at 6/1
  • MONTRACHET GIRL (R Varian) formerly with E J-Houghton, 112-day break and market check required. Aiden Keeley rides
  • CHOREOGRAPHIC (W Haggas) trainer 21% at the course, lightly raced maiden and shaped with promise, stall 10 a negative. Tom Marquand rides

8.00:  Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap (Class 6) 1m3f219y 

  • Winning favourites 32%
  • GRAY RAINBOW (J Owen) bred for this distance and further, trainer 20% with horses running 10f+ and 26% in winter, cheek pieces for handicap bow, Sean D Bowen rides
  • GEMMARI (R Hannon) drops from Class 4 to Class 6, makes handicap debut. Sean Levey rides 2nd at 10/3
  • NO RELEASE (E Dunlop) trainer +£76.60 with horses stepped up in trip, first time cheek pieces, Hector Crouch rides

The Racing Horse has had so many fantastic experiences in racing, but this one was unusual. TRH, Hollie and Tom were Covid Tested before racing in the same room. We were all passed fit for racing and Hollie gave me a 15/2 winner, whilst Tom got beaten on his best bet at 10/11.
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