PACAFI (Monday 7 April 2025)
April 6th, 2025
Winning favourites (last 5 years) Non-handicaps Handicaps 2yo 89-213 42% -27.47 34-107 32% -6.09 3yo 152-305 50% -13.70 213-652 33% -87.96 4yo+ 74-181 41% +1.76 418-1338 31% -134.23 TOTAL 315-699 45% -39.41 665-2097 32% -228.29 Top Trainers last 5 years +/- E Tony Carroll (10%) 89-946 9% -237.61 -1% 7 Mark Loughnane (10%) 79-649 12% -49.01 +2% 2 Michael Appleby (11%) 70-533 13% +44.63 +2% 0 George Boughey (16%) 61-383 16% -38.22 +0% 1 David Evans (11%) 55-440 13% -108.49 +2% 2 Top 5 Jockeys last 5 years +/- R Rossa Ryan (17%) 132-636 21% +39.49 +4% 7 Luke Morris (9%) 106-904 12% -200.17 +3% 4 Billy Loughnane (14%) 81-473 17% -5.41 +3% 3 David Probert (13%) 76-633 12% -117.72 -1% 4 Daniel Muscutt (14%) 72-41 17% -57.34 +3% 0 Top 5 Owners last 5 years +/- E Godolphin (26%) 43-144 30% -24.39 +4% 0 Saeed Manana (17%) 19-83 23% +10.43 +6% 0 Amo Racing (15%) 16-96 17% -15.17 +2% 1 Sheikh A Maktoum (23%) 15-44 35% +7.16 +12% 0 Power Geneva (13%) 15-116 13% -23.80 +0% 1 Sundries J Channon (16%) 7-11 64% +25.05 M L W Bell (14%) 3-8 38% +8.25 Harrison Shaw (7%) 0-49 (115 days) Cam Hardie (5%) 0-41 (30 days) Lewis Edmunds 11%) 0-35 (30 days) Gina Mangan (10%) 0-34 (133 days) Upcoming fixtures: Tuesday 18 March 2025 Saturday 22 March 2025 Forthcoming Racecourse Templates: Chepstow NH (Thursday 20 March 2025) Exeter (Sunday 23 March 2025)
RACECOURSE TEMPLATES are road maps that unmasks, then reveals a betting landscape of an individual racecourse on a given day. The numbers and aggregation contained within the template are pure, and have obvious value, representing something as big as an edge or as small as relevance. Not only that, it flags up pieces of information generally missed by punditry, whilst offering relevant snippets to future races/templates.
CONFIGURATION: The all-weather course at Wolverhampton forms a flat, left-handed oval circuit of just under a mile in length. The bends are fairly sharp and with a straight of under 2f in length it favours horses with the ability to hold a good position as opposed to those who need time to find full stride.
JASON WEAVER: Wolverhampton’s 5f, 7f and extended 1m starts can be tricky from a jockey’s point of view, because they’re very much draw-dependent. It’s a big advantage being among the low, left-hand numbers. The 1m 4f start can also be a slight problem, but at least from there you’ve got a longer trip to get sorted out. Nobody went round the inside in the early days and, while I’m not sure it’s a disadvantage to be there now, most jocks still shy away from that rail. It’s a tight course, but well laid-out and very fair.
WINNING FAVOURITES: Despite the poor quality of racing at Wolverhampton, winning favourites generally have high strike rates, particularly in non-handicap, low-tier races. The wisdom of the crowd is clearly in play and working at this racecourse, and it certainly pays to wager late here or even better just before the off. It's important to note that the 5f, 7f, and extended 1m starts can be challenging for jockeys, and the 1m4f start may also present difficulties. Nevertheless, the high strike rate persists despite these adverse draw conditions. The substantial sample size at this course lends much credibility to the data, with absolutely no signs of fatigue!
Over the past 5 years, winning favourites at Wolverhampton show 980-2796 for 35% so around 3% above the national average, though a level stake loss to SP of -£267.70 to a £1 win stake.
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TRAINERS: Top trainer at the course Tony Carroll (10%) has 7 runners including LOCAL BAY 4.27, SECOND COLLECTION 5.00, IFLOOKSCOULDKILL 6.00, LEQUINTO 6.30, KENSINGTON AGENT 7.00, DANEHILL STAR 8.00 & YOU ARE EVERYTHING 8.30. He looks good for a winner with this set of runners, especially with Rossa Ryan riding 3 of them!
JOCKEYS: Rossa Ryan (17%) has 7 rides including SECOND COLLECTION 5.00, PRINCE OF INDIA 5.30, THE SWEET ESCAPE 6.00, LEQUINTO 6.30, KENSINGTON AGENT 7.00, TOP OF PLEINMONT 7.30 & QUICK AWAY 8.00. Stop at a winner?
Luke Morris (9%) has 4 rides including WARRIOR MODE 6.00, CAPTAIN BRETT 7.30, DANEHILL STAR 8.00 & COMEDIAN LEADER 8.30.
David Probert (13%) has 4 rides including EXCELLENT BELIEVE 6.00, NOT JUST YET 7.00, KING OF THE DANCE 8.00 & DOURADO 8.30
4.27: Best Odds G QUIuaranteed At BetMGM Handicap (Class 4) 1m142y
5.00: Gamble Responsibly At BetUK Classified Stakes (Class 6) 5f21y
5.30: Boost Your Acca At BetMGM Novice Stakes (Class 4) (Div I) 7f36y
6.00: Boost Your Acca At BetMGM Novice Stakes (Class 4) (Div II) 7f36y
6.30: Win £1M With BetMGM's Golden Goals Handicap (Class 6) 7f36y
7.00: Free Bets With BetUK Bet Club Handicap (Class 6) 6f20y
7.30: BetMGM: It's Showtime Handicap (Class 6) 1m4f51y
8.00: Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Classified Stakes (Class 6) (Div I) 1m142y
8.30: Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Classified Stakes (Class 6) (Div II) 1m142y
Everything in racing is an estimate, nothing is absolute, this especially applies to JOCKEY BOOKINGS. Whilst their role is most critical within the race itself, it is massively important prior to and after the race also, something not fully acknowledged by the punting masses!