WHAT is a RACECOURSE TEMPLATE?

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Essentially, the Racecourse Template is a road map, one that unmasks, then reveals a unique betting landscape of an individual racecourse on a given day..

 The Racecourse Template is a flexible yet structured tool, organically designed to provide value, relevance, and context, ensuring it is completely pertinent to the day's racing. Importantly, the math-based aggregation it produces automatically filters out media noise, bias and hype, randomness, guesswork and punditry, generating a clear and concise blueprint. This allows members to quickly scan and absorb the information before applying their own prudence and discretion.

Prudence is the ability to govern and discipline oneself by the use of reason, and then show skill and good judgment in the use of those resources provided.

The numbers and aggregation contained within the template are 100% pure and have obvious value, representing something as big as an edge or as small as relevance.  Not only that, it flags up pieces of information generally missed by punditry, whilst offering relevant snippets to future races/templates.

For templates to have considered or potential value or merit, the user must first accept that proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting! Every professional bettor/handicapper we have ever met or read about, uses a strategy, system or plan, which invariably includes the use of a structure/method containing pertinent data.

Every individual template is unique. They emphasise current and historical events at the course, strongly indicating the likelihood of repetition/recurrence. The scenario shifts significantly across racing codes, from one course to another, and from turf to all-weather tracks, and recognising these patterns undoubtedly aids the betting thought process.

The Racecourse Template identifies areas that carry compelling figures whilst confirming where the biggest strike rates reside. More advanced bettors will be aware of their existence, less so the extent. Whether the figures contain perceived value is another matter, but TRH has identified a seam from which one can mine.

 The samples are substantial, varying in size, yet the data remains solid and reliable, showing no signs of diminished effectiveness in the future. Utilising an easily updatable mathematical framework, we process, refine, and assess this information to uncover profitable opportunities or, at minimum, significantly enhance the likelihood of success.

Of course, there are no guarantees in horse racing betting, but aligning with supporting aggregates must make us savvier, placing us in a better starting position than if we ignored them. Whilst we readily accept each race is a completely separate entity, it is not a contradiction to insist they are still governed by those proven mathematical laws.

While the individual man is an insoluble puzzle, in the aggregate he becomes a mathematical certainty. You can, for example, never foretell what any one man will be up to, but you can say with precision what an average number will be up to. Individuals vary, but percentages remain constant. So says the statistician - Arthur Conan Doyle.

So what makes the Racecourse Templates so unique? There are 59 licensed racecourses in Great Britain, each with its unique characteristics. Except for Chelmsford and Ffos Las, all the courses date back to 1927 or earlier, maturating their own distinct features such as shape, size, cambers, gradients, undulations, right and left-hand travel (including ambidexterity), altitude, and various surface types. No other country in the racing world has our course diversity.

Has this feature/factor been truly factored into our betting decisions?

TRH would suggest not, personal experience confirms a serious lack of learning in this regard even from seasoned pundits. Winning or losing in professional sport often comes down to the smallest of margins - a winning or losing bet is repeatedly determined by those small margins. Seasoned bettors to pundits tend to focus on the form of the horse, trainer, jockey and the price, mistakenly, there is scant consideration for the the course title. If accepting the opening premise we must classify the course or its inherent nature into help or hindrance categories, if the course negatively impacts upon the bet, we stand down and wait for another opportunity.

For example, a small nimble speedy juvenile suited to a fast 5f has two entries, one at Beverley and the other at Catterick - which race gives the best percentage chance of success? Disregarding opinions, mathematics and common sense gives us the answer. The Beverley 5f is uphill all the way and takes a lot of getting, particularly if the word soft is in the going title. In total contrast the Catterick 5f is downhill all the way but with an extreme downhill first furlong, clearly enabling the small nimble type and not the large galloping sort. These two courses could not be more different, but how many of us actually know that?

The configuration of a racecourse should be a prime consideration before wagering. Every racehorse that has ever been born has its own optimum conditions that have been genetically predetermined. Our task is to align a bet to the racecourse and surface whenever possible, failing that we seek conditions to suit.

On Thursday TRH will be producing a Racecourse Template for Lingfield AW. Before looking at any of the runners and riders, there is a need to see what mathematics are contained within the 6 various race types.

LINGFIELD Winning Favourites (last 5 years)
Non-handicaps                      Handicaps
2yo    56   120   47%	 -3.91     18       42   43%     +4.33
3yo   103   199   52%    +5.89     125     412   30%    -88.16
4yo+   62   146   52%	+22.94     237     792   30%   -133.94
TOTAL 224   445   50%	+24.93     380    1246   30%   -217.77

How many of our readers were aware of these figures? One could back winning favourites blindly in non-handicaps to level stakes and make a 25pt profit. Half of all the favourites in non-handicaps win their races! Just imagine what a modicum of filtration with best pricing could do to those figures? Is there any chance of the figures suffering fatigue? They have not done so in the past 10 years, and we can see no reason why they would in the coming years! By the way, the sample size is big giving the numbers a robust and trusted look.

Suffice it to say TRH never considers wagering until acknowledging what the betting landscape is telling us at that particular racecourse. This is the inherent beauty of the Racecourse Templates because they almost exclusively deal in mathematics - not opinion! These betting landscapes are uniquely different and change dramatically from course to course, revealing profitable and negative areas. Racecourse Templates not only represent the perfect starting point to a day's racing, but puts the bettor into the box seat, with all things contextual, pertinent and relevant at their fingertips!

RACECOURSE TEMPLATE:

  • PROFESSIONAL OVERVIEW
  • BETTING LANDSCAPE of INDIVIDUAL RACECOURSE
  • CONCISE & FACTUAL
  • PERTINENT, RELEVANT & CONTEXTUAL

MATHEMATICS is the GOVERNING FORCE of SUCCESSFUL HORSE RACING BETTING. 

The essential element for success in betting is recognising situations where the available odds exceed the actual probability of winning, coupled with the discipline to place bets solely in these scenarios. Adhering to this approach ensures that, according to the principles of mathematics and probability, one will achieve a profit over time.

Please note: EVERY TRAINER has a NATIONAL AVERAGE - BUT WHAT IS IT?

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk, and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *