WOLVERHAMPTON AW Racecourse Template (Saturday 22 March 2025)

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The Racing Horse offers our WOLVERHAMPTON AW RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Saturday 22 March 2025. There is a 7-race card containing 5 Handicaps, a Novice Stakes and a Maiden Fillies' Stakes Race. The going for the Tapeta Surface is expected to be standard.

Winning favourites (last 5 years)
Non-handicaps                     Handicaps

2yo    89-213	42%    -27.47	  34-107     32%     -6.09
3yo   152-305	50%    -13.70	  213-652    33%    -87.96
4yo+   74-181	41%	+1.76	  418-1338   31%   -134.23
TOTAL 315-699	45%    -39.41	  665-2097   32%   -228.29

Top Trainers last 5 years                          +/-   E
Tony Carroll (10%)	89-946	  9%	-237.61    -1%   4
Mark Loughnane (10%)	79-649	 12%	 -49.01    +2%   0
Michael Appleby (11%)	70-533	 13%	 +44.63    +2%   0
George Boughey (16%)	61-383	 16%	 -38.22    +0%   0
David Evans (11%)	55-440	 13%	-108.49    +2%   2

Top 5 Jockeys last 5 years                         +/-   R
Rossa Ryan (17%)	132-636	 21%	 +39.49    +4%   4
Luke Morris (9%)	106-904	 12%	-200.17    +3%   2
Billy Loughnane (14%)	81-473	 17%	  -5.41    +3%   0
David Probert (13%)	76-633	 12%	-117.72    -1%   0
Daniel Muscutt (14%)	72-41	 17%	 -57.34    +3%   1

Top 5 Owners last 5 years                          +/-   E
Godolphin (26%)	        43-144	 30%	 -24.39    +4%   0
Saeed Manana (17%)	19-83	 23%	 +10.43    +6%   0
Amo Racing (15%)	16-96	 17%	 -15.17    +2%   1
Sheikh A Maktoum (23%)	15-44	 35%	  +7.16   +12%   0
Power Geneva (13%)	15-116	 13%	 -23.80    +0%   0

Sundries
Stuart Williams (11%) 0-34  36 days                      1
John Butler (9%)      0-33  34 days                      1
Alice Haynes (11%)    0-21  24 days                      1

Danny Muscutt (14%)   0-26  20 days                      1

Hot Jockeys
Sean Levey (12%)      5-14  36%                          1
Oisin Murphy (20%)   11-38  29%                          1
Hector Crouch (17%)  11-42  26%                          2
Rossa Ryan (17%)     16-73  22%                          4

Upcoming fixtures:		 
Monday 24 March 2025		
Thursday 27 March 2025	
Monday 31 March 2025		
Tuesday 1 April 2025

Upcoming RACECOURSE TEMPLATES:
Lingfield AW (Monday 24 March 2025)
Kempton AW (Wednesday 26 March 2025)

RACECOURSE TEMPLATES: Racecourse Templates identifies areas that carry compelling figures, whilst confirming where the biggest strike rates reside. More advanced bettors will be aware of their existence, less so the extent. Whether the figures contain perceived value is another matter, but TRH has identified a seam from which one can mine. For example, our last Wolverhampton Racecourse Template 'highlighted information' found ALL 9 WINNERS!

WOLVERHAMPTON AW RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Monday 17 March 2025)

CONFIGURATION: The all-weather course at Wolverhampton forms a flat, left-handed oval circuit of just under a mile in length. The bends are fairly sharp and with a straight of under 2f in length it favours horses with the ability to hold a good position as opposed to those who need time to find full stride.

JASON WEAVER: Wolverhampton’s 5f, 7f and extended 1m starts can be tricky from a jockey’s point of view, because they’re very much draw-dependent. It’s a big advantage being among the low, left-hand numbers. The 1m 4f start can also be a slight problem, but at least from there you’ve got a longer trip to get sorted out. Nobody went round the inside in the early days and, while I’m not sure it’s a disadvantage to be there now, most jocks still shy away from that rail. It’s a tight course, but well laid-out and very fair.

WINNING FAVOURITES:  Despite the poor quality of racing at Wolverhampton, winning favourites generally have high strike rates, particularly in non-handicap, low-tier races. The wisdom of the crowd is clearly in play and working at this racecourse, and it certainly pays to wager late here or even better just before the off. It's important to note that the 5f, 7f, and extended 1m starts can be challenging for jockeys, and the 1m4f start may also present difficulties. Nevertheless, the high strike rate persists despite these adverse draw conditions. The substantial sample size at this course lends much credibility to the data, with absolutely no signs of fatigue!

 Over the past 5 years, winning favourites at Wolverhampton show 980-2796 for 35% so around 3% above the national average, though a level stake loss to SP of -£267.70 to a £1 win stake.

  • Winning favourites in non-handicaps score at 45%
  • Winning favourites in handicaps score at 32%
  • Best category are 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps 152-305 for 50% (-13.70)
  • Worst category are 4yo+ winning favourites in handicaps 418-1338 for 31% (-134.23)
  • Differential between best and worst category is a big 19%
  • Top trainer at the course is Tony Carroll (9%) based on volume - not on quality
  • Top jockey at the course is Rossa Ryan (17%) where he scores at 21% so +4% above his national average. The last 5 years at this course shows him 142-684 for 21% (+72.95)
  • Godolphin (26%) are the leading owners at the course scoring at 31% so +5% above their national average.

TRAINERS: Tony Carroll (10%) has 4 runners including ABSTRACT 4.18, WEDGEWOOD & PORT HEDLAND 4.53 and INIT TOGETHER 7.30.

David Evans (10%) has 2 runners including LEVEL UP 4.53 & I CAN'T BELIEVE 7.30

JOCKEYS: Oisin Murphy (20%) on NIYLA BREEZE 6.30 and Danny Muscutt (14%) on PAGEANT 7.00 have just one ride each, and the advice is to at least process these rides. Muscutt is on a losing run at the moment but we can expect him to ride a winner sooner rather than later, he should be followed and filtered from here.
 
Rossa Ryan (17%) rides Wolverhampton brilliantly and has 4 rides including LEVEL UP 4.53, OUTLANDISH 6.00, MAGNA GRECIA STAR 6.30 & I CAN'T BELIEVE 7.30.
 
Luke Morris (9%) has 2 rides on WEDGEWOOD 4.53 & SCEPTIC 7.30
 
OWNERS: Amo Racing (15%) run the 4yo gelding and current 5/2 MR NUGGET 7.30 trained by David Simcock and ridden by David Egan. The horse was a beaten favourite last time out but the run is best ignored given he found trouble in the race.
 

4.18: £30 In Free Bets With BetUK Apprentice Handicap (Class 6) 1m4f

  • Winning favourites 31%
  • MAMDOH (J Parr) dual C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, Warren Fentiman (3) rides
  • PRINCE HECTOR (J Bedi) winner in the last 7 days, Tom Kiely-Marshall rides
  • ARK ZOOVSE (S Spencer) formerly with I Furtado, Jack Nicholls (5) rides

4.53: Free Bets With BetUK Bet Club Handicap (Class 6) 5f21y 

  • Winning favourites 31%
  • THE DEFIANT (L Dace) C&D winner, drops from Class 4 to Class 6, weighted to win 69 > 60, biggest earner £81,242, Jack Dace (7) rides
  • LEVEL UP (D Evans) weighted to win 72 > 64, 0-8 on the AW this winter but sure to win again at some point, visor back on. Rossa Ryan rides
  • GUSTAVE GRAVES (D Shaw) 5-time C&D winner, weighted to win 64 > 60, Clifford Lee rides

5.28: Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Fillies' Handicap (Class 5) (Div I) 1m4f

  • Winning favourites 31%
  • BAJAN BLUE(R Varian) trainer 23% at the course and 18% with handicap debutants, not well treated for handicap debut but has potential and trip to suit, Aidan Keeley rides
  • KINETIC (J Owen) C&D winner, needs to bounce back from last run but that is likely, 4 wins last year. Hector Crouch rides

6.00: Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 5) 1m142y

  • Winning favourites 50%
  • SUPREME SOVEREIGN (C Hills) overcame inexperience to make winning debut at Southwell, go well under a penalty and stall 1 to help find rail. Off 140 days but sure to progress. Jason Watson rides
  • SAN JUANITO (S & E Crisford) bettered previous form when 3 of 6 in Southwell handicap 22 days ago, stall 3 and Rob Havlin rides
  • OUTLANDISH (C Fellowes) €65,000 yearling. Half-brother to several winners, including winner up to 1m Geological and 1m winner Blues Emperor, both useful. Likely type on paper so market watch advised with Rossa Ryan riding 

6.30: BetMGM It's Showtime Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 5) 7f36y

  • Winning favourites 50%
  • HAVANA JOY (C Hills) stepped up on her debut third at Kempton (6f) when 2 of 9 in novice here 25 days ago, type to progress again with step up in trip expected to suit. Jason Watson rides
  • NIYLA BREEZE (R Hughes) stall 9, market check for the only ride of the day for Oisin Murphy
  • MAGNA GRECIA STAR (J Tate) promising 3rd on 7f Kempton debut last month, certain to improve though the draw (stall 10) is a problem, Rossa Ryan rides

7.00: Boost Your Acca At BetMGM Handicap (Class 5) 7f36y

  • Winning favourites 33%
  • PARTY BEAR (K Burke) beaten favourite last time out, do better stepped up in trip. Clifford Lee rides
  • BETA READER (C Johnston) last time out winner and career best overcoming poor draw and strong finish, Callum Shepherd rides
  • PAGEANT (J Fanshawe) useful pedigree provides hope for better in handicaps, market watch advised (currently 7/1) now wearing first time blinkers. Danny Muscutt's only ride!

7.30: Gamble Responsibly At BetUK Handicap (Class 6) 1m1f104y

  • Winning favourites 31%
  • INIT TOGETHER (T Carroll) beaten favourite last time out, Jack Doughty rides
  • MR NUGGET (D Simcock) beaten favourite last time out, David Egan rides

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