KEMPTON AW Racecourse Template (Wednesday 26 March 2025)

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The Racing Horse offers our KEMPTON AW RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Wednesday 26 March 2025. There is a 9-race card containing 6 Handicaps and 3 Novice Stakes Races. The Polytrack is expected to ride standard to slow.

Winning favourites (last 5 years)
Non-handicaps                     Handicaps
2yo    99-260	38%    -45.24	  38-90	     42%    +12.04
3yo   133-266	50%    -12.84	  145-428    34%    -19.95
4yo+   41-95	43%	-4.25	  227-700    32%    -55.65
TOTAL 273-621	44%    -62.33	  410-1218   34%    -63.56

Top Trainers last 5 years                          +/-   E
Andrew Balding (15%)	79-504	 16%	 -47.64    +1%   5
Charlie Appleby (29%)	65-204	 32%	 -45.01    +3%   0
Roger Varian (20%)	59-233	 25%	 -22.77    +5%   0
J & T Gosden (21%)	57-283	 20%	 -54.37    -1%   1
Richard Hannon (11%)    45-400	 11%	-129.20    +0%   5

Top 5 Jockeys last 5 years                         +/-   R
Oisin Murphy (20%)	94-424	 22%	-66.88     +2%   8
Daniel Muscutt (14%)	86-577	 15%   -145.13     +1%   2
David Probert (13%)	81-641	 13%	 -3.07     +0%   3
Rossa Ryan (17%)	70-466	 15%	-64.02     -2%   3
Richard Kingscote (13%)	70-510	 14%    -94.60     +1%   0
  
Top 5 Owners last 5 years                          +/-   E
Godolphin (26%)	      85-312	27%    -85.21      +1%   0
Juddmonte (23%)	      21-78	27%    -10.07      +4%   0
Shadwell Est (22%)    21-84	25%	-3.11      +3%   0
Opulence Thor (19%)   18-62	29%	+8.10     +11%   0
King Power (12%)      18-101	18%    -37.27      +6%   1

Sundries
James Tate (17%)	3-9	33.3%	  +2.75          1
J & T Gosden (21%)	2-6	33.3%	  -1.73          1
Emma Lavelle (15%)	8-32	25.0%	  -2.00          1

Brian Twoomey (5%)      0-22  (174 days)                 1
Simon Dow (8%)	        0-21   (46 days)                 1
A W Carroll (10%)	0-21    (7 days)                 1

Sean Kirrane (11%)	5-16	31.2%	 +20.25          1
Oisin Murphy (20%)	9-34	26.5%	  -4.54          8
Hector Crouch (17%)	11-42	26.2%	 +17.60          1

Daniel Muscutt (14%)	0-32  (24 days)                  2
Thomas Greatrex (8%)	0-22 (171 days)                  2

Forthcoming fixtures:
Wednesday 26 March 2025
Saturday 29 March 2025

CONTEXT, PERTINENCE & RELEVANCE: Betting information is widely accessible at little or no cost, yet its interpretation is key to profiting. Utmost caution is necessary when distinguishing between reliable data and clutter. Clutter often consists of false, non-contextual, biased, and hyped information. Some of this misleading information may be presented in a very sophisticated manner, creating an illusion of credibility and importance. BUT, The Racing Horse Racecourse Templates are largely factual details with bias and opinion stripped away from them. They represent the best betting canvas available for an individual meeting by providing 100% context, pertinence and relevance, and contained within them is the chance to forge one's own systems and strategies!

CONFIGURATION: Kempton is a right-handed, Polytrack, flat, oval-shaped course with two loops. The inner circuit, used for races over five and ten furlongs is sharp and has a finishing straight of just under two furlongs, favouring the speedy, handy type, markedly so over the minimum trip. The turn on the outer course is more sweeping and the straight is approximately three furlongs long, making for a fairer test. Over both five and six furlongs, there is a relatively short run to the first bend.

JASON WEAVER: The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics.

 

 WINNING FAVOURITES Winning favourites score 683-1839 for 37.14%, so around 5% above the national average, though a level stake loss to SP of -£125.89 to a £1 win stake. The size of the sample is big and robust, and one to be trusted, at least in a relative sense.

  • Winning favourites in non-handicaps score at 44%
  • Winning favourites in handicaps score at 34%
  • Best category are 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps 133-266 for 50% (-12.84)
  • Worst category are 4yo+ winning favourites in handicaps 227-700 for 32% (-55.65)
  • Differential between best and worst category is a huge 18%
  • Top trainer at the course is Andrew Balding (15%)
  • Top jockey at the course is Oisin Murphy (20%)
  • Godolphin (26%) are the leading owners at the course scoring at 27%. They score 4-times more than their nearest challenger and a figure to be acknowledged!

TRAINERS: Andrew Balding (15%) has 5 runners including MARVELMAN 4.55, WHITE CROWN STAR 5.30, KING'S LYNN 7.00, BERKSHIRE SMUDGE 7.30 & LEGACY POWER 8.30 and a winner from this quintet beckons.

Richard Hannon (11%) has 5 runners also in WESTINGTON HOUSE 4.55, ARTH'S GOLD 5.30, STANDPUT 6.00, LOCAL HERO 7.00 & BEST RATE 7.30

J & T Gosden (21%) have made a quiet start for 2025 so far scoring just 2-17 for 12% (-13.73) so figures suggesting the stable's horses are not yet fully forward. They have just 1 runner in ROI DE FRANCE 7.00 to be ridden by Oisin Murphy from a perfect stall 3. The market will confirm his readiness in regards to a winning chance!

JOCKEYS: Danny Muscutt (14%) has 2 rides, David Probert (13%) has 3 and Rossa Ryan (17%) has 3 rides also and one can expect a winner coming from this aggregation of 8 rides, though we expect Oisin Murphy to be the headline act tomorrow and our angle into the meeting (see Red Flag)!
 
OWNERS: King Power (13%) has a single entry and a chance of a winner in LEGACY POWER if ready after a 326-day break, has run well fresh before, trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by Oisin Murphy. The 4/1 has gone suggesting the 5yo gelding is ready!
 
RED FLAG: Oisin Murphy (20%) looks the jockey to follow tomorrow with many of his 8 rides having win and places chances! His rides include VOLCANIC DANCER 4.20, MARVELMAN 4.55, WHITE CROWN STAR 5.30, BERMUDA PRINCESS 6.00, ROI DE FRANCE 7.00, BERKSHIRE SMUDGE 7.30, FOUR ADAAY 8.00 & LEGACY POWER 8.30. He rides 3 for Andrew Balding, of which 2 are the opening or joint favourites. One imagines him scoring a win double but with other placings also! He scores 22% at Kempton and his UK figures for 2025 so far shows 10-24 for 42% (-1.37).

4.20: Unibet Zero% Mission/EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Class 4) 6f

  • Winning favourites 50%
  • VOLCANIC DANCER (B Twoomey) beaten favourite last time out and heavily backed, presumed to be better and now Oisin Murphy rides
  • GREYDREAMBELIEVER (K Burke) long traveller 245-miles, drops from Group 3 to Class 4,  created a really favourable impression when winning on debut at York last summer, can resume her progress having found Group 3 company too much when last seen. Hard to beat based on rationale. Clifford Lee rides

4.55: Racing TV Novice Stakes (Class 5) 7f

  • Winning favourites 50%
  • MAN OF LA MANCHA (R Beckett) beaten favourite last time out, type to do better and especially over further. Hector Crouch rides
  • MARVEL MAN (A Balding) RPR 93, pair of second places on the board, but type to do better still as a 3yo, Oisin Murphy rides
  • SHAMEFUL (C Cox) only winner in the field, carries a penalty, Rossa Ryan rides

5.30: Racing TV Novice Stakes (Class 5) 7f

  • Winning favourites 50%
  • FEARNOT (C Cox) hooded and green but a cosy winner on debut in 8-runner novice at Wolverhampton 18 days ago, a fair bit more to offer. Now drops from Class 3 to Class 5, trainer +£15.32 with favourites. David Probert rides
  • WHITE CROWN STAR (A Balding) promising sort. First run since leaving Michael Stoute when 5 of 12 in Newcastle novice in November, making effort earlier than ideal. Wind op since, Oisin Murphy rides
  • WESTLAIN (J Jones) racing for 3rd place at best over a trip too short, Rob Havlin rides

6.00: Unibet Support Safer Gambling Handicap (Class 5) 7f

  • Winning favourites 34%
  • NOTIMEFORCHITCHAT (R Hughes) beaten favourite last time out, Finley Marsh rides
  • MCINTOSH (J Horton) last time out winner and extra distance to suit on handicap debut, Adam Farragher rides
  • BERMUDA PRINCESS (E Walker) formerly with W Haggas, trainer 15% with handicap debutants, market watch advised. Oisin Murphy rides

6.30: Unibet Support Safer Gambling Handicap (Class 5) 7f 

  • Winning favourites 34%
  • WHIZZ BY (T Ward) 3 wins and a second place in handicap company, obvious place claims at least from stall 2, Sean Levey rides
  • PIETRO (J Fanshawe) beaten favourite last time out, Kyle Strydom rides
  • SOLAR ARMY (R Teal) beaten favourite last time out, Joe Leavy (3) rides

7.00: Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap (Class 2) 7f 

  • Winning favourites 32%
  • ROI DE FRANCE (J & T Gosden) beaten favourite last time out, Oisin Murphy rides MOUNT ATHOS (J Tate) horse, trainer and jockey have won the last 2 runnings, OR 106, stall 9 complicates third win. James Doyle rides
  • HEATHCLIFF (J Fanshawe) C&D winners, won 4 times in 2024, Danny Muscutt rides

7.30: Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boost's Handicap (Class 4) 1m 

  • Winning favourites 34%
  • KAMEEL (J Butler) unbeaten in 2 starts, stall 1 to help but will need to for handicap debut, Kaiya Fraser (3) rides
  • BRINDAVAN (S Woods) C&D nursery winner last year, beaten favourite last time out, drawn stall 2. Ben Sanderson (3) rides

8.00: Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap (Class 6) 6f 

  • Winning favourites 32%
  • COLLUSION (D Cunha) seeking hat-trick after back-to-back 6f handicap wins at Wolverhampton, overcoming a troubled passage on latter occasion 23 days ago. Kyle Strydom rides
  • FOUR ADAAY (B Millman) drops from Class 4 to Class 6, weighted to win 69 > 63, 2 from 6 for Oisin Murphy who rides
  • EL HIBRI (I Williams) C&D winner, weighted to win 62 > 57 and today stall 1, Clifford Lee rides

8.30:  Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap (Class 5) 2m

  • Winning favourites 32%
  • LEGACY POWER (A Balding) C&D winner, interesting returned to AW and has run well fresh previously. Oisin Murphy rides
  • GREY FOX (E Lavelle) nearly overcame trouble on last start here over 2m, stable is in form, Cieren Fallon's only ride today 

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