The Racing Horse believes the RACECOURSE TEMPLATES offers a fabulous overview of a particular meeting, where context meets relevance meets pertinence! We use the information contained within them in a number of ways including systems and strategies.

For example, today there is a 7-race card at Lingfield AW, containing 6 Handicaps and a Maiden Fillies' Stakes Race, and it is this race that interests us most.

So how can the Lingfield AW Racecourse Template be of help on this occasion? Our vast experience of the market place has identified the probable favourite on the morning or the night before the race. Invariably, the expected favourite will be highlighted on our template for this particular race, because it contains positive indicators. It is likely to have met some simple but very important preordained criteria.

As we go to post we have already provisionally staked the 3yo filly MANDANA because she has ticked our 4 main boxes, and looks an obvious favourite come race-time, if she has a good paddock and trip to post. If those minutes leading up to the race go smoothly, we believe the 9/4 or 5/2 will contain perceived value!

But first, we recognise the big sample size showing 471 non-handicap races ran at Lingfield AW over the past 5 years. Of those, 237 have won at 50.32% showing a level stake profit of +£24.35 to SP to £1 level stake.

Winning favourites (last 5 years)
Non-handicaps                    Handicaps
2yo    56   120	  47%	 -3.91	 18	42   43%    +4.33
3yo   113   214	  53%	 +9.46	 126   425   30%   -98.53
4yo+   68   137	  50%	+18.80	 253   850   30%  -141.10
TOTAL 237   471	  50%	+24.35	 397  1317   30%  -238.31

Winning favourites (current year)
Non-handicaps                     Handicaps
2yo	0    0	   0%	 +0.00	  0	0    0%     +0.00
3yo    11    16	  69%	 +5.57	  1	15   7%    -12.38
4yo+	3    11	  27%	 -4.15	  18	62   29%    -9.32
TOTAL  14    27	  52%	 +1.42	  19	77   25%   -21.69

Just acknowledging these figures represent an edge, given non-handicap winning favourites win 50% of their races compared to the 30% of handicap winning favourites, a massive differential of 20%. Professional bettors recognise these figures, but the majority do not!

Those 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps this year are out-performing our base, scoring 11-16 for 69% (+5.57) whilst 3yo winning favourites in handicaps score 1-15 for 7% (-12.38). We can expect an adjustment to both sets of figures in the coming weeks. But to confirm, backing favourites blind in non-handicaps will produce a profit so a great starting point to any meeting at Lingfield AW. All the indicators show no signs/danger of fatigue and advise members to add this strategy to their portfolio.

Members will appreciate if something consistently makes a profit to SP, it is probably the real deal or at least worth an investigation. The facts show 2yos win at 47%, 3yos at 53% and 4yo+ at 50% and these figures are without any form of filtration. Secure in the numbers and the sample size, the above figures should represent a baseline and something to build from. From 1 April 2025 we will log our placements and report back to members.

To facilitate a profit from horse racing betting, it is absolutely essential to secure, or try to secure, the very best price available at all times! Betting at SP is the least favoured option. Most of our work these days is done on the exchange, where we correctly anticipate a moving market and its very late changes and its volatility. When there are a number of horses vying for favouritism, it is best to stake or finalise your process just two or even one minute before the off, making sure you have staked the favourite and not a second or third favourite. Remember, the results are for winning favourites! Those late fluctuations will catch some people out, so being prepared, alert and ready is essential!

TRH does not stake every single favourite at Lingfield AW, because we want to drive the winning percentage up by removing negative influences. So we do this by referring to the quadripoint of our betting slip, the subjective part of the wager:

• GOOD TRAINER FORM
• REQUISITE CLASS
• OPTIMUM GROUND CONDITIONS (inc distance and draw concerns)
• JOCKEY COMPETENCE

The filters are subjective and each of us will have our own thresholds. With the amount of Maiden and Novices races involved, a basic understanding of breeding and their preferences help the process further

By the way, our nomination is trained by Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole and before racing today the duo have registered 2 wins from their last 6 runners for 33%, and one of those was at 8/1. The class, surface and distance are within their fillies' scope, and she has Hollie Doyle in the saddle who has recently recorded her 1000th UK winner. To help her find the rail, she has been drawn stall 1 - so not a single negative. Are the stable on? After recording 2 second places and 2 third places we doubt the stable and owner are mucking about and will want their filly to get off the mark in a race designed for her in doing so! We expect her price to shorten from 9/4 and this is our nomination using the Lingfield AW Racecourse Template.