TRAD JAZZ 4.53 Kempton at 1/2 

Unibet Support Safer Gambling/EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 5) 1m2f219y

Trainer Form: 12-37 for 32%         (10)
National Average: 19%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 15%             (10)
RPR: 97                             (10)
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)     
Optimum Distance: 1m3f to 1m4f      (10)
Jockey: Hector Crouch               (10)
National Average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 16%             (10)          
Trainer & Jockey Combination: 31%   (10)
Total:                             (100)

Impressive winning debut

Trad Jazz is a Sea The Moon filly made an impressive winning debut when landing a maiden at this course (1m) last August, backed up by the time-figure, suggesting she might be a Stakes filly in the making where she still holds a 1000 Guineas entry. She is bred to stay this longer trip and looks very hard to beat.

Trainer & Jockey Form

In January 2023, James Owen was granted a BHA licence enabling him to train horses under both National Hunt and Flat racing codes. His impact was immediate; within 18 months, he amassed over 175 winners, showcasing a remarkable strike rate of 22%. He is in great form currently scoring 12-37 for 32% over the last 14 days. He clearly has made the most fabulous start to his training career and destined for greater things. He recorded 63 Flat winners last year and will smash that figure this year.

2025: 31-129   24%    -1.83
2024: 63-362   17%   +43.58
2023:  0-3      0%    -3.00

Betting his runners to a £1 stake on the Flat in 2024 would have produced a level stake profit of +£43.58 at a strike rate of 17%, this year so far he is scoring at 24%.

At Kempton AW he shows 5-33 for 15% (+34.25) so below his national average of 19%, but included in those figures are 5 second places confirming competitiveness.

The combination of trainer and jockey Hector Crouch shows 22-72 for a big 31% (+27.89) and worth noting the proportion of wins against second places which stands at 22 v 7. This is an impressive statistic! Crouch scores 45-277 for 16% (+38.20) at this course.

Timeform Comments

 Course-winner TRAD JAZZ should have too much class for the opposition and can make it 2-2 en route to loftier targets later in the season. Fellow debut winner Personal Best should be suited by the longer trip, and she can chase home the selection ahead of Chilli Queen who showed a bit more on debut for Emma Lavelle last time.

Perceived Value

The 1/2 looks north of perceived value, we priced the filly up closer to 2/5 and especially if she has a good paddock. Trad Jazz traded at a high of 100.00 and Betfair SP of 31.09 when winning last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field. This looks a good thing and we have staked 2pts win.

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