CHEPSTOW Racecourse Template (Friday 31 May 2024)

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The Racing Horse offers our Chepstow Racecourse Template for Friday 31 May 2024. There is an 8-race card containing 5 Handicaps, 2 Novice Races and a Maiden. The going is expected to be good to soft.

CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE WHAT'S ON

CHEPSTOW TEMPLATES - FREE OF CHARGE

CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
2yo	16-44	36%   -8.99    5-15	33%    +0.75
3yo	23-43	53%   -2.58    37-86	43%   +16.54
4yo+	2-7	29%   +2.00    58-175	33%    +7.22
TOTAL	41-94	44%   -9.57    100-276	36%   +24.51

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow last 5 years      +/-   E
Tony Carroll (9%)   18-165   11%   -16.30    +2%   2 
Rod Millman (12%)   15-106   14%   -26.62    +2%   0
Ralph Beckett (18%) 13-36    36%   +12.58   +18%   3
John O'Shea (8%)    13-119   11%   -47.12    +3%   1   
Archie Watson (14%) 12-52    23%   +20.46    +9%   2 

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow last 5 years       +/-   R
Hollie Doyle (15%)   21-80   26%   +16.99   +11%   0
Gina Mangan (10%)    17-102  17%   -22.64    +7%   3
Rossa Ryan (16%)     13-79   16%   -30.10    +0%   0
William Cox (5%)     13-98   13%   +33.95    +8%   2  
Tom Marquand (15%)   12-61   20%   +16.66    +5%   0     

TOP 5 OWNERS at Chepstow last 5 years        +/-   E 
Cross Racing Club (10%)	7-42   17%   -4.62   +7%   0
Tidball & Millman (16%)	5-13   38%  +10.00  +22%   0
James & Llewellyn (15%)	4-12   33%   +6.62  +17%   0
Hannah Jones (19%)	4-13   31%   +4.50  +12%   0
S R Whistance (15%)	4-13   31%  +31.50  +16%   0

Upcoming Chepstow Fixtures:		 
Friday 31 May 2024
Saturday 8 June 2024

Forthcoming Racecourse Templates:
LINGFIELD AW (Saturday 1 June 2024)

CHEPSTOW CONFIGURATION: Left handed, undulating. Oval-shaped track, about two miles in extent, with a run-in of 5 furlongs. All races at up to a mile are run on the straight course. While not an out-and-out galloping course, owing to the pronounced undulations, the track puts the emphasis on stamina almost regardless of ground.

FAVOURITES: Winning Favourites at Chepstow over the past 5 years show 141-370 for 38.11% and a level stake profit of +14.94 to SP so around +5% above the national average. All categories produce decent figures albeit from a small sample, though best category are 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps show 23-43 for 53% (-2.58). Note, all 3 categories (age-groups) of winning favourites in handicaps produce a profit to level stakes, something very unusual in a Racecourse Template!

TRAINERS: William Haggas (22%) has sent 27 runners to Chepstow over the past 5 years winning with 6 of them for 22% so matching his national average. On this occasion he sends an interesting trio of runners and should go close to a winner, they include SWINDON 1.50, GILDED WATER 3.35 & FAR LANE 4.15.

Michael Stoute (18%) has his horses in form scoring 3 from his last 6 runners for 50% at prices of 7/1, 2/1 & 9/2 and he sends James Webb 3.35 to be ridden by Rhys Clutterbuck. In the last 5 years Stoute has only sent 6 horses to Chepstow winning with 2 of them, the trainer must think this course suits his charge though Gilded Water looks hard to beat for William Haggas.

Andrew Baling (15%) sends 2 including MOUNT TEIDE 1.50 & BYE BYE SALAM and the former must go close to winning with his first, both to be ridden by David Probert.

JOCKEYS: David Probert (12%) has disappointing Chepstow figures given his quality and national average, scoring 11-122 for just 9% (-82.06) so -3% below his national average! He rides in 7 of the 8 races on tomorrow's card and it will be hard to keep him out of the winners enclosure, his rides include LOOSE TONGUE 1.20, MOUNT TEIDE 1.50, RHUBARB 2.25, LEVEL UP 3.00, BYE BYE SALAM 3.35, KINGDOM OF STARS 4.15 & BIG LOU 4.45.

Rob Hornby (11%) is another jockey with 7 rides and importantly his first 2 rides are big class droppers, POLES APART 1.20 from Class 4 to Class 6, then ECHO LIMA 1.50 from Class 2 to Class 5. His other 5 rides include NOTRE MAISON 2.25, BEYOND EQUAL 3.00, DOMAINE DES COMBES 3.35, SEEK AND DESTROY 4.15 & BUDDING 4.45.

OWNERS: None of the leading owners have a runner at tomorrow's meeting.

RED FLAG: Ralph Beckett has a high national average of 18% yet over the last 5 years scores 13-36 for a big 36% (+12.58) at Chepstow so +18% above his standard He sends 3 fillies to South Wales tomorrow and there is a need to process them. The horses are bigger priced and include ECHO LIMA 1.50, DOMAINE DES COMBES 3.35 & SEEK AND DESTROY 4.15. Echo Lima 1.50 is a big class dropper from Class 2 to Class 5 yet available at 10/1 when only 6/1 for the Ascot Class 2. How can that be? She must need more time after running particularly green first time up.

Domaine Des Combes 3.35 is a Le Havre filly and makes her debut. She cost 325,000gns and available at around 13/2, a market check is advised. Finally, Seek And Destroy 4.15 is a Sea The Stars filly who cost 325,000gns and available at around 20/1. With the above in mind this trio will make for interesting viewing. Rob Hornby rides each of them.

 The reality of betting was spelled out by the wonderful New England philosopher Ralph Waldo Emerson: "Shallow men believe in luck. Strong men believe in cause and effect." Since the inception of The Racing Horse in June 2011 it has never used the word luck in the context of a winning or losing bet, and as long as it exists it NEVER will!

PERTINENCE & PERTAINING

1.20
POLES APART (H Morrison) drops from Class 4 to Class 6, Rob Hornby rides
SUNNY CORNER (S Kittow) got off the mark at Bath earlier this month, not harshly treated by handicapper, could go close following up. First time hood, William Carson rides
DANCING THE DREAM (J Channon) trainer +£21.70 when one runner at a meeting, George Bass (3) rides

1.50
MOUNT TEIDE (A Balding) beaten favourite last time out, RPR 87, David Probert rides
ECHO LIMA (R Beckett) drops from Class 2 to Class 5, Rob Hornby rides
SWINDON (W Haggas) winner on debut last November, trainer +£26.88 with horses running after a break. Cieren Fallon rides

2.25
JACQUELINA (P McEntee) winner in the last 7 days, currently thriving, obvious chance. Grace McEntee rides
RHUBARB (R Price) 4-time course winner, weighted to win 58 > 54, trainer +£10.25 when one runner at a meeting. David Probert rides
DIAMOND COTTAGE (M Saunders) weighted to win 61 > 55, William Carson rides

3.00
SARAH'S VERSE (R Harris) winner in the last 7 days, still weighted to win 71 > 64, Sean D Bowen (5) rides
SOME NIGHTMARE (J O'Shea) C&D winner but 0-13 since Jan 22, weighted to win 74 > 64, Gina Mangan (3) rides
TREACHEROUS (E De Giles) Ran creditably when 3rd at Windsor after break of 5 months nearest finish, strip fitter and place chance, Liam Wright (5) rides

3.35
JAMES WEBB (M Stoute) RPR 84, trainer in form 5-17 for 29% last 30 days, Rhys Clutterbuck rides
GILDED WATER (W Haggas) trainer 24% with horses racing over 10f+, progressive type, Cieren Fallon rides
DOMAINE DES COMBES (R Beckett) 325,000gns yearling, Le Havre filly. Noteworthy debutante. Rob Hornby rides

4.15
MIDAIR (H Charlton) beaten favourite last time out finding lots trouble, RPR 87 now drops from Class 3 to Class 5. Trevor Whelan rides
HAJARA (R Varian) trainer 21% with horses 10f+, Ray Dawson rides
TROUVILLE (S & E Crisford) trainer 20% with horses 10f+, Harry Davies rides

4.45
KNIGHT TEMPLAR (M Prescott) trainer 24% with horses 10f+, strip fitter for last run. Jack Gilligan rides
THEWORLDSNOTENOUGH (T Ward) improved horse this season, Trevor Whelan rides

REMARKABLE FLIGHT (C Hills) big improvement to win 28/1 last time out, William Cox rides

5.15
FLAME OF KODIAC (J & R Flint) only course winner in field, Jack Doughty (3) rides
ABSOLUTE QUEEN (G Boughey) bolted up at Brighton last time out, go close, trainer 20% with horses running 10f+, Tommie Jakes (3) rides
TARITINO (J Tickle) slipped in weights, ran better when runner-up over C&D recently. Morgan Cole rides

 Chepstow takes a fair bit of getting. Because it’s so up hill and down dale, stamina has to come into play and it’s also worth noting that the straight is quite long, meaning that some horses start to race a lot earlier than is ideal. If you’re on one that wants to make the running, for example, you’ll often get a few keen to take you on earlier than you might like, so patience is vital for a jockey. Long-striding horses can often go well on the straight track but, as it’s quite stiff, they definitely need to get home - Jason Weaver

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk, and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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