GRAN LUNA 5.35 Chepstow at 11/10

  burnhamplastering.co.uk Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Class 4) 2m3f100y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 6-41 for 15%           (9)
National average: 24%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 15%              (9)
OR & RPR: 121 & 128                 (10)                                                   
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Distance: 2m+                       (10)
Jockey: Tom Cannon                  (10)
National Average: 12%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 7%               (8)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 25%         (10)  
Total:                              (96)

Main Danger: Miss Tara Moss

Forgetting last run

Gran Luna won her first couple of starts at Newbury (bumper and hurdle) before disappointing slightly over an extended 2m at Market Rasen last time. That trip, on a tight track, was far from ideal, however, and she deserves another chance stretching out in distance at this more-galloping venue.

Class 2 at 4/11 to Class 4

This 5yo Spanish Moon mare has only had 3 runs so she is massively unexposed yet a winner of a Class 2 Novice Hurdle at Newbury when heavily backed as the 4/11 favourite so expected to win with a bit to spare! The trainer has gone on record saying he has the highest hopes for her and this means Grade racing. She took a false step in that race and it definitely affected her confidence but she ground out the victory but not in the impressive manner expected. She drops into a Class 4 Novice and this looks to be a confidence booster.

After the race Nicky told us: "I'm not sure what happened at the one down the back but it just seemed to unnerve Gran Luna for a bit. She blew up at the last, which is a bad time when you need to get a second wind and you're that close to the finish. Like a lot of ours, she just needed it and was stuffy. I'd have thought the Listed novice for mares back here at the end of the month might be next."

Cheltenham entry discarded after poor run at Market Rasen

Well that engagement did not  happen as she was given wind surgery and then brought back 108 days later at Market Rasen in a Class 3 Novice. One would have expected her to start favourite for this race but she was easy to back at around 5/2 and 3/1 and then proved disappointing. The tighter track did not suit but the distance she was beaten meant she could not go to Cheltenham. As disappointing as she was the form of that race looks better now than at the time of the race. In any case we expect a different mare today on just her fourth start and expect her to get back on track.

Trainer form

We have talked quite a lot of the poor year Nicky Henderson has had in a relative sense! He does not come into this race in the very best of form at 15% which is way down on his national average of 24%. His Chepstow figures are below modest also. Tom Cannon is not a jockey we go too very often but think he has ridden 2-2 for our Pacafi. His Chepstow numbers would normally be a concern but we are using the word context a lot for tomorrow. He is 2-6 for 33% at the course this year so far, he will want to impress for Henderson especially, he has ridden just 4 times for him so far scoring with a big priced winner for 25%

Andrew J Martin

Context is everything and we note the form of his two rival trainers. Andrew J Martin has never had a winner at Chepstow showing 0-9 and records just 2 winners since October albeit to very few runners and his total career wins stands at 15 but significantly just 1-31 for 3% over hurdles. Looks to specialise in chasers.

Oliver Greenall

Oliver Greenall has a national average of 9% though currently 10-74 for 14% but he is a chase trainer also. His NHF runners show 0-49 and his hurdlers 50-622 for just 8%. He has trained just 1 winner at Chepstow from 17 attempts for 6%. His mare has never raced on ground as quick as good so far from 5 runs and raced in Class 4 standard. Fergus Gregory rides for him today and their combinations shows 0-6.

Contenders

Miss Tara Moss won gamely at Sedgefield and rates the biggest threat, ahead of Midnight Ginger, who makes her stable debut for Andrew Martin.

Timeform

GRAN LUNA disappointed on the back of a wind operation/4 months off at Market Rasen, but she'd looked an above-average prospect prior to that, so is worth another chance to get her career back on track over a trip that should suit. Miss Tara Moss has a nice attitude which will stand her in good stead in her attempt to defy a penalty.

Value

The 11/10 must be on the north side of value if trainer Nicky Henderson is right about his mare, he sees her as a Grade company horse and not a Class 4 at Chepstow.

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