ROYAL INVITATION 8.00 Newcastle at 5/4

MansionBet Best Odds Guaranteed Novice Stakes (Class 5) 1m8y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 5-24 for 21%          (10)     
National average: 21%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 24%             (10)        
RPR: 9  6                           (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)
Distance: 1m                        (10)
Jockey: Ray Dawson                  (10)
National Average: 11%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 8%               (9) 
Trainer/jockey combination AW: 56%  (10)
Total:                              (99)
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Danger: Gaassee

Given a poor ride on debut, yet beaten less than a length

On debut in a Class 5 Novice the Pacafi was ridden by Eoin Walsh and he rode the proverbial nightmare. He was beaten less than a length but raced three wide for most of the mile race, without cover and turning into the straight he was six or seven wide. Of course this means he raced very green an without cover. He was not expected to win on debut going off at 8/1 so overperformed and will come on massively for the run! He made plenty of appeal on breeding and at the end of the race promised to win next time out in a similar event, this track should suit

Trainer form

The trainer has his horses in good nick and is bettering his national average of 21%.

October:   6-29  for 21%  (-6.64)
September: 9-49  for 18% (+34.33)
August:    9-38  for 24% (-12.10)
July:     10-39  for 26%  (-4.95)
Total:    34-155 for 22% (+10.41)

We will never know why this huge operation, and Saeed bin Suroor in particular, will not employ a number one jockey. Charlie Appleby has William Buick (21%) and James Doyle (20%) whilst Saeed has used 33 different jockeys this year.

Check these numbers out?

If we set aside the contribution of Oisin Murphy, his next three winning-most riders are Marco Ghiani (9), Ray Dawson (6), Stefano Cherchi (4). We are more confused when we see the following figures: William Buick 0-1 (whilst trying to win the jockey's championship), Hollie Doyle 1-2 for 50%, Jamie Spencer 1-1 for 100% and Silvestre De Sousa 0-1 for 0%.

Alternatively, he has given valuable rides to Eoin Walsh 2-16 for 13%, Sean Kirran 1-11 for 9%, Louis Steward 0-9 for 0%, Callum Shepherd 1-12 for 8% for a collective 4-48 for 8%. What are we missing? The jockeys named are good in their own right, but what do they bring/add to operation in the same way Buick and Doyle does?

Contenders

Gaassee is a promising sort. 1 win from 2 runs this year. He wears a tongue strap on for 1st time. He won a 7-runner minor event at 8/15 at Chester over 10.3f on heavy ground 20 days ago, when having run of race. He is open to progress.

Timeform

  ROYAL INVITATION shaped with a great deal of promise on debut at Lingfield last month and he gets the nod ahead of runaway Chester winner Gaassee, who is greatly respected but won't find it easy conceding 7 lb to the Godolphin colt. Nationwide failed to land a telling blow on his recent introduction but he is surely capable of a good deal better.

Value

The 5/4 looks north of value with just one horse in the way! Royal Invitation should not be troubled by any pace scenario but we imagine Ray Dawson taking a sit behind Qasaayed before powering clear.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021.