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KEMPTON RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Sunday 26 December 2021)
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The Racing Horse offers our Racecourse Template for Kempton on Sunday 26 December 2021. There is a 6-race card and the going is expected to be good to soft. |
Winning favourites (5 years) Non-handicap Handicap Hurdle 50-105 for 48% (-8.15) 29-80 for 36% (+13.79) Chase 23-41 for 56% (-0.25) 35-94 for 37% (+6.44) NHF 12-29 for 41% (+3.69) 0-0 TOTAL 85-175 for 49% (-4.71) 64-174 for 37% (+20.23) TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON for past 5 years +/- E Paul Nicholls (23%) 50-221 for 23% (-27.79) +0% 7 Nicky Henderson (24%) 48-200 for 24% (-35.36) +0% 8 Alan King (15%) 17-146 for 12% (-74.30) -3% 2 Dan Skelton (19%) 13-106 for 12% (-19.52) -7% 0 Ben Pauling (12%) 10-49 for 20% (+38.50) +8% 1 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON for past 5 years +/- R Nico de Boinville (22%) 30-128 for 23% (-21.98) +1% 5 Harry Cobden (21%) 28-153 for 18% (-21.97) -3% 5 Sam Twiston-Davies (16%) 19-105 for 18% (-24.81) +2% 0 Bryony Frost (16%) 13-45 for 29% (+52.60) +13% 1 Daryl Jacob (16%) 12-72 for 17% (+39.12) +1% 0 TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton for past 5 years +/- E John P McManus (12%) 14-51 for 27% (-16.05) +15% 3 Mrs J de la Hey (17%) 11-48 for 23% (-15.37) +6% 1 S Munir & I Souede (21%) 10-50 for 20% (+43.70) -1% 1 Mrs J Donnelly (33%) 4-5 for 80% (+3.16) +47% 2 Paul Murphy (13%) 4-9 for 44% (+7.12) +31% 0 HOT TRAINERS 25/11/2021 to 25/12/2021 +/- E W P Mullins (12%) 23-77 for 30% (-0.09) +18% 2 J Snowden (17%) 6-23 for 26% (-1.00) +9% 1 P Nicholls (23%) 20-86 for 23% (+2.62) +0% 7 L Russell (10%) 12-53 for 23% (-4.00) +13% 2 H Fry (18%) 6-28 for 21% (+0.88) +3% 1 TRAINERS COLD LIST E C Tizzard (13%) 34 2 Kerry Lee (13%) 13 1 H De Bromhead (16%) 12 1 N Twiston-Davies (14%) 10 1 H Morrison (12%) 10 1 HOT JOCKEYS 25/11/2021 to 25/12/2021 +/- R Adrian Heskin (15%) 10-31 for 32% (+12.00) +17% 3 Sean Bowen (17%) 10-37 for 27% (-2.12) +10% 3 Derek Fox (10%) 7-27 for 26% (-1.00) +16% 1 Harry Cobden (21%) 15-62 for 24% (+2.62) +3% 5 Kevin Brogan (17%) 8-33 for 24% (+2.00) +7% 1 JOCKEYS COLD LIST R Danny Mullins (9%) 18 2 Brendan Powell (9%) 14 4 Rachael Blackmore (14%) 12 1 FIXTURES Sunday 26 December 2021 Monday 27 December 2021 Wednesday 12 January 2022 Saturday 15 January 2022 Monday 24 January 2022 Wednesday 26 January 2022 (%): National Average E: Entries R: Rides
FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Kempton over the past 5 years score 149-349 for 42.69% and a level stake profit of +15.52. Regarding strike rate the best category is non-handicap chases at 23-41 for 56% (-0.25) and conversely worst strike rate is handicap hurdles at 29-80 for 36% but those show a profit of +13.79. Non-handicap winning favourites show 49% (-4.71) and handicap winning favourites 37% (+20.23) so a couple of contradictions in those figures. The main point is favourites across the board win above the national average.
TRAINERS: The top 2 trainers at the track are Paul Nicholls (7 runners) and Nicky Henderson (8 runners) and with course strike rates of 23% & 24% respectively they are certain to dominate proceedings on Sunday.
DAN SKELTON: How interesting that Dan Skelton, who is -7% at Kempton, does not have a single runner at the course, but sends out 10 runners on the other cards where he has planned a major assault - he should be followed on Sunday. Harry Skelton goes to Wetherby to ride: GALIA DES LITEAUX 12.27, JERSEY 1.35, DEBECE 2.10 and UNEXPECTED PARTY 2.45 and he will almost certainly ride at least one winner! Dan Skelton also has runners at Market Rasen and Huntingdon and looks set to record 3 winners on the day in total. Stop at a winner?
OTHER TRAINERS: Kerry Lee is 1-20 for 5% (-16.25) since 1 November whilst Colin Tizzard is currently 0-34 and has 2 runners.
JOCKEYS: Nico de Boinville and Harry Cobden reflect the success of the top 2 trainers at the course, though the former scores at 5 points higher. Bryony Frost has fantastic figures at the course with her 13-45 for 29% (+52.50) and the reason why Paul Nicholls is just ahead of Nicky Henderson on the scoreboard.
OWNERS: There are some big strike rates for the top 5 owners on Sunday, big strike rates suggest winners. J P McManus has 20 of his horses running on the day and 3 of them at Kempton, all have winning chances. Mrs J Donnelly is 4-5 for 80% over the last 5 years but has 2 runners of real interest. Munir and Souede have a runner also.
OTHER: Lucinda Russell travels 421 miles to mix it with the big boys, she runs Ahoy Senor 1.55 and Corrigeen Rock 12.45 whilst the Irish are involved in the 3.05 with Minella Indo for Henry De Bromhead and Tornado Flyer and Asterion Forlonge for Willie Mullins. Mullins has won with 4 of his last 6 runners.
It is going to be a great day's racing!
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12.45 1.20 1.55 2.30 3.05 3.40 |
Mick Fitzgerald on KemptonIt’s changed a fair bit in recent years, with the Polytrack crossings and all, but I’d still have to say it’s one of my favourite courses. It’s a great test and a fair test. You need a horse that travels and jumps, though, and one of the things you always notice around Kempton is that lots of runners are usually in contention turning in, but those same horses are often well spaced out by the time they get to the last. It’s only a short run from the home turn to that obstacle, but only horses that are travelling well are able to take a breather on that section, while those that have been struggling are having to work too hard to last home. |
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