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CHELTENHAM RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Saturday 1 January 2022)
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The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Cheltenham (Saturday 1 January 2022) where there is a 7-race card. The going is expected to be soft, so only stayers need apply. First race is at 12.15. |
FAVOURITES NON-HANDICAP (5 YEARS) HANDICAP (5 YEARS) Hurdle: 42-108 for 39% (-16.78) 22-94 for 23% (-6.01) Chase: 45-114 for 39% (-10.18) 27-113 for 24% (-15.13) NHF: 4-25 for 16% (-12.25) 0-0 Total: 91-247 for 37% (-39.21) 49-207 for 24% (-21.13) TOP 5 TRAINERS at Cheltenham (5 years) +/- E Nicky Henderson (24%): 41-276 for 15% (-41.32) -9% 7 Gordon Elliott (23%): 26-160 for 16% (+28.42) -7% 0 W P Mullins (12%): 24-236 for 10% (-11.91) -2% 1 Dan Skelton (19%): 23-225 for 10% (-65.53) -9% 3 Paul Nicholls (23%): 22-233 for 9% (-102.58) -15% 3 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Cheltenham (5 years) +/- R Harry Skelton (22%): 23-184 for 13% (-58.83) -9% 3 N de Boinville (22%): 18-123 for 15% (+24.80) -7% 5 Sam T-Davies (16%): 16-187 for 9% (-80.39) -7% 5 Paddy Brennan (16%): 15-141 for 11% (-8.62) -5% 3 Harry Cobden (21%): 14-170 for 8% (-79.72) -13% 2 TOP 5 OWNERS at Cheltenham (5 years) +/- E J P McManus (17%): 33-274 for 12% (-101.21) -5% 0 Munir & Souede (21%): 11-101 for 11% (-65.96) -10% 1 Gigginstown House (10%): 11-117 for 9% (-41.52) -1% 0 Cheveley Park Stud (28%): 7-18 for 39% (+14.69) +11% 0 P J Vogt (17%): 5-10 for 50% (+19.75) +33% 0 HOT TRAINERS 02/12/2021 to 01/01/2022 +/- E M Keighley (12%) 5-17 for 29% (+7.00) +17% 1 J Williams (16%) 4-15 for 27% (-1.00) +11% 1 J Snowden (17%) 7-30 for 23% (-1.00) +6% 1 H Daly (14%) 6-26 for 23% (+5.00) +9% 2 V Williams (15%) 13-58 for 22% (-3.00) +7% 3 COLD LIST TRAINERS E N Gifford (10%) 48 1 C Tizzard (13%) 49 1 P Webber (7%) 23 1 T R Gretton (5%) 22 1 HOT JOCKEYS 02/12/2021 to 01/01/2022 +/- R Chester Williams (17%) 6-18 for 33% (-1.00) +16% 2 Adrian Heskin (15%) 11-35 for 31% (+11.00) +16% 3 Harry Skelton (22%) 16-66 for 24% (+6.25) +2% 3 Nico De Boinville (22%) 13-56 for 23% (-2.00) +1% 5 COLD LIST JOCKEYS R James Davies (6%) 42 2 Brendan Powell (9%) 25 4 FIXTURES Saturday 1 January 2022 Saturday 29 January 2022 (%): UK National Average E: Entries R: Rides
FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Cheltenham over the past 5 years show 140-454 for 30.84% (-60.34) so a strike rate below the national average. Winning favourites in handicaps perform particularly badly at the course with 49-207 for 24% yet conversely show a level stake loss of just -21.13. NHF winners at this course, albeit from a small sample, show an even worse conversion rate with 4-25 for 16% (-12.25).
PAUL NICHOLLS: It is not easy for trainers and jockeys to have winners here, there are no freebies, the 5-year totals prove it. Hard to believe Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls has trained just 22 winners in that time frame at this course! His 9% strike rate looks dreadful when measured against his national average of 23% and against other trainers. Context is everything but we can't help comparing his figures against those of Fergal O'Brien 19-159 for 12% (+6.04) who has a far better strike rate! Dan Skelton has better figures than Nicholl also, and they are not Champion Trainers.
His all time score at the track reads 230-1722 for 13% so it appears he is doing something different with his horses more recently, and in particular the last two seasons:
Paul Nicholls at Cheltenham for last 2 seasons 2020/2021: 3-56 for 5% (-43.17) 2019/2020: 2-40 for 5% (-28.50) Total: 5-96 for 5% (-71.67)
We've had shares in three horses in training with Nicholls and know he is not, as his status suggest, excellent at placing horses on the right course and right ground - there are many others much better than him at that aspect of training! A sample of 96 is not considerable, but in the context of a Champion Trainer finding the correct grade/type of horse to compete on a particular course, we would suggest it is big enough! Something certainly needs a tweak. He has 3 runners tomorrow.
TRAINERS: Nicky Henderson (41 winners) is easily top trainer at the course and as we go to post with our first draft he has 7 entries. He is almost certain to score at least one winner, especially with the Irish not competing. Willie Mullins sends just one over. Dan Skelton runs 3 with Harry in the saddle.
HOT TRAINERS: We have 5 hot trainers with 8 entries and a winner must surely come from this grouping?
HOT JOCKEYS: There are 4 hot jockeys with 13 rides and they could provide at least 3 winners at this meeting.
OWNERS: Our top 5 owners have nothing for us to ponder, only Munir & Souede have a runner and we doubt that one will trouble the judge.
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12.15 12.50 1.25 2.00 2.35 3.10 3.50 |
| MICK FITZGERALD - CHELTENHAM RACECOURSE
To the naked eye, or to the layman, Cheltenham looks very stiff, but the two courses are actually totally different and I rate the Old Course much the quicker. So, especially on that, you need a horse that can travel easily within itself. Without one of those, you invariably find yourself snookered, because you’re always trying to get into a position to improve. Ideally, therefore, you need a horse that can get into a gap as soon as one appears, because there’s so little time to manoeuvre. If you have to think about going for a gap, nine times out of ten it’s too late - someone else will have got into it before you. As for the uphill finish, it only rides really testing if you’re on one that’s tying up. Then, it feels like an eternity from the last to the line. |
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