Supreme Novices Hurdle

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Supreme Novices' Hurdle often produces winners who continue to shine at the Festival in future years. It  is one of the most eagerly anticipated races of the entire season, though not a great race for favourites. Only 3 have won in the last 16 renewals, that said, only a couple of those have started longer than 12/1. 

Willie Mullins has won this race 7 times, Nicky Henderson 4 and Noel Meade twice. Handling ground conditions with the ability to act in large fields is key. This race is regularly won by a stayer but one who can race close to the pace - they rarely come from way back. 

Cheltenham Festival 2022 (Home Page)

1.30: (Old) Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m87y .

20/20: Foaled between March & May (100%)
20/20: Between 2-7 runs that season (100%)
20/20: Won over hurdles previously (100%)
17/17: Rested at least 16 days (100%)
17/17: Won at 2m – 2m1f (100%)
13/13: At least 2 runs that season (100%)
13/13: At least 2 previous wins over 15-17 furlongs (100%)

19/20: Sent off no bigger than 25/1 (95%)
19/20: Won at least a Class 3 contest (95%)
19/20: Contested at least a Class 2 race (95%)
19/20: In first three last time out (95%)
16/17: Ran 2-4 times since October (94%)
16/17: Ran within the last 60 days (94%)
16/17: Ran 2-5 times over hurdles (94%)
25/27: Raced in same calendar year (93%)
12/13: Aged 5 or 6yo (92%)
12/13: At least 2 wins that season (92%)
12/13: Rated 142 or higher (92%)

  • Willie Mullins representatives sent off favourite for 7 of last 8 years, won this race 7 times
  • Nicky Henderson has won this race 4 times
  • The last 12 winners were rated 142+
  • Last winner with just one run over hurdles before winning was in 1992
  • Last 4yo winner in 1999
  • Those aged 7yo have poor record in race showing 2-40 since 1997, though Appreciate It won last as a 7yo at 8/11 for Willie Mullins
  • 42/47 for 89% have been won by a 5 or 6yo

Recurrence Factor

Our numbers are very strong for this race! The top 18 trends have a recurrence factor of 305-317 for a massive 96.21%

  Today's Pacafi: click here

The Racing Horse Verdict

1: CONSTITUTIONAL HILL 9/4 (2pts win)  2: Jonbon 9/2 (½pt win)  3: Dysart Dynamo 11/4

The Supreme Novices’ is the plan and both he and Jonbon have been very good, and they are like chalk and cheese. Constitution Hill would stand there all day and would just lie down for you and that’s the way he just behaves through life. They both worked on Saturday, and they have not worked with each other and will not work with each other. They would both get two and a half and it would ruin the party if we worked them together. I don’t want them ripping up trees and having dust ups here as they would do too much. They are very, very good. With Constitution Hill, nothing will worry him, and he is very straightforward. They are both good rides in the race - Jonbon can be a bit keen in the race sometimes but there is no danger of Constitution Hill being too keen. Nico will ride Constitution Hill and Aidan will ride Jonbon. If we had run him again nobody was going to take him on and there wasn’t anywhere else to go where you were going to get more than four or five runners in which case, he would just be doing the same thing. They were both excellent this Saturday and they will work this Saturday and the following Saturday and that will be about it. Constitution Hill is very laid back and will probably want to do more work than Jonbon, but Jonbon has had that extra run at Haydock, and you wouldn’t want to wind him up. They will jump a hurdle at one stage - we will let them jump four hurdles, but we will probably do that the week before. You would like to think they are in the Altior/Shishkin kind of league and all you do is read what there is on the other side of the pond - you would like to think this wind could keep up and they don’t get here. Willie has a couple and there is going to be plenty of opposition but it’s the best race to win on the whole card as if you get one on the board it takes the pressure off -Nicky Henderson

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