AHOY SENOR 2.30 WETHERBY at 8/13

 William Hill Towton Novices' Chase (Grade 2) 3m45y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 1-8 for 13%           (10)     
National average: 10%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 0%               (7)        
OR & RPR: 152 & 170                 (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Good to soft         (9)
Distance: 3m+                       (10)
Jockey: Derek Fox                   (10)
National Average: 10%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 0%               (7) 
Trainer/jockey combination: 12%     (10)
Total:                              (93)
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Danger: Saint Palais

Looking for a personal best before Cheltenham

Ahoy Senor has won two hurdle races, a chase and a point-to-point from 2m 4f to 3m 1f on good to soft and soft ground. He was beaten 8l by Bravemansgame when second of 4 as the 11/10 favourite on his latest outing in a Grade 1 chase in the Group 1 Kauto Star Novices' Chase at Kempton over 3m on soft ground in December last year. The 7yo gelding with just 6 runs on the clock should be suited by the return to a left-handed track and we just need Derek Fox to get the fractions right up front!

Phenomenal - Lucinda Russell

The win at Newbury before his loss in the Grade 1 took our breath away, Lucinda Russell told us after the race: "Ahoy Senor has got no experience but has jumped round there and it's the ability he has. It's phenomenal to be part of it. We knew he was a good horse at home; you just have to look at his stride and how he gallops. He was entitled to win on his handicap mark. The Kauto Star is on the agenda - and he did jump a bit right. He's not the finished article yet."

PURE POWER from AHOY SENOR

There are a couple of negatives we are duty bound to report, one is optimum ground which is good to soft, the going at Wetherby is reported as good. There is rain about and we hope it hits the course before 2pm. Lucinda said: “He’ll be going to Wetherby as long as the ground stays good to soft, which would be fine, and that’s the key factor in us heading there rather than the Cotswold Chase last weekend. Our aim is to get him a nice, confidence-boosting clear round to set him up for the spring to go to Cheltenham. We’re involved with a very good horse here and we’re trying to produce him to be the best he can be. There’s anxiety and tension going into any race, but I do know he’s very good."

Talking of negatives Lucinda Russell is 0-34 at Wetherby and jockey Derek Fox 0-17.

Contender

Saint Palais has been progressing well through the handicap ranks and is respected as he rises in class, but he is only a 5yo (in February) and his jumping is going to be tested against that of our Pacafi. Ashtown Lad edges out Noble Yeats to be the pick of the remainder, but on the Newbury run has little chance with Ahoy Senor given a kind trip.

Timeform

AHOY SENOR lost nothing in defeat behind Bravemansgame in the Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day and can get back to winning ways here. Saint Palais should ensure Lucinda Russell's exciting young chaser doesn't have things all his own way however if, as expected, building on his stylish Newbury success.

Value

The 8/13 looks north of perceived value given a kind trip. If he replicates his Newbury win or something close to it, he looks a good thing!

Trainer Lucinda Russell says Cheltenham in March was the ultimate aim for Ahoy Senor including a Gold Cup entry had the horse performed well in the Kauto Star Novices' Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. If he wins nicely tomorrow he will probably go for the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 3m½f

Ahoy Senor traded at a low of 1.99 and Betfair SP of 2.15 when losing last time, a race in which it led.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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