MISS FAIRFAX 2.05 Catterick at 5/6

 Meetings That Matter On Racing TV Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Class 4) 3m1f71y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 3-7 for 43%           (10)     
National average: 22%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 50%             (10)        
OR & RPR: 120 & 131                 (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Good to soft        (10)
Distance: 3m+                       (10)
Jockey: Tom O'Brien                 (10)
National Average: 14%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 23%             (10) 
Trainer/jockey combination: 22%     (10)
Total:                             (100)
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Danger: Letthetruthbeknown

Beat subsequent winner

The well-bred Miss Fairfax could be far too strong here after the Hughie Morrison-trained mare impressed when winning at Exeter last month. She got off the mark on her third hurdles start on her first run at 2m7f when scoring in good style from a subsequent winner at Exeter last time on good to soft ground. She was still very green and is expected to improve naturally, but this longer trip will suit also and she must be very hard to beat!

Trainer and Jockey form

Trainer Hughie Morrison is very adept with his National Hunt runners and has a national average of 22%, much higher than his Flat runners. His 5-year UK NH record is quite impressive with 25-115 for 22% (+66.75) whilst over the past 5 years he has sent just 2 horses to Catterick and won with one of them for 50%. His combination with jockey Tom O'Brien shows 11-50 for 22% (+50.42).

Rival trainer Oliver Greenall has a national average of 9% and 3-30 for 10% at the course over the past 5 years. The trainer's combination with jockey Craig Nicholl shows just 1-47 for 2%.

Contender

Letthetruthbeknown defied big odds when scoring on her hurdling debut at Uttoxeter in December, travelling well and in full control close home. The daughter of Shirocco is respected.

Timeform

Preference is for MISS FAIRFAX, who left the impression there's more to come when scoring at Exeter last month. Letthetruthbeknown is the obvious danger.

Value

The 5/6 looks just north of value. We missed the 10/11 which was a bummer but we priced the Morrison mare closer to 4/6. We do expect her to come on massively from her last race.

Miss Fairfax traded at a high of 4.80 and Betfair SP of 1.88 when winning last time, a race in which it raced prominently.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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