How best to ride the Lingfield AW Racecourse
January 13th, 2026
Jockey David Probert has built an exceptional body of experience around Lingfield’s All‑Weather circ[...]
National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
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These race always carries a large field and is ridden by Amateur riders over the marathon trip of 3m5f201y. All horses are young novice chasers. The race is a recipe for a shock and horror result so even more reason to use our Racecourse Templates and Racing Trends. Only three favourites have won in the last 23 years and we doubt we will be going down that route on this occasion. Obviously stamina and jumping well is key but none of the horses have raced this distance so a subjective call. Stattler is currently 5/2, but if he is to win he must overturn an alarming statistic. Horses with less than 3 previous chase starts in this race show 1-86 for 1%. Stattler comes to the race with 2-2 over fences so falling short. It gets worse. If we look at the statistics for last 8 renewals then the winner needs at least 4 chase starts. Those that lined up with three or less Chase starts show 0-41 for 0%. There are 23 fences to be jumped by novice chasers with amateur jockeys riding so we really do need some solid chasing experience... Cheltenham Festival 2022 (Home Page) |
5.30: (Old) National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Chase (Grade 2) 3m5f201y .
21/21: Break of at least 17 days since last run (100%)
20/20: Ran at least 3 times over fences (100%)
17/17: Rated 120 or higher (100%)
14/15: Had 3+ chase runs, top 2 finish in 3m + chase (93%)
11/12: At least 4 previous chase runs (92%)
21/23: Finished in top 5 last time out (91%)
21/23: At least one top 4 finish in last 2 starts (91%)
19/21: Raced 4-8 times that season (since Sept) (90%)
10/12: Rated 142 or higher (83%)
10/12: At least 1 win that season (83%)
16/21: Aged 7 or 8yo's (76%)
..2/80: Won by 5 and 6yos (3%)..
- Last 12 winners rated 127+
- 75% of all win and placed horses are Irish bred
- In 2016 & 2017 the first three home were all Irish bred
- In 2013 all 8 finishers were Irish bred
- Paul Nicholls has a dismal record in this race and currently is 0-19
- Trainer Nicky Henderson has never won this race
Recurrence FactorThe top 3 trends have a recurrence factor of 58/58 for 100% whilst the top 8 show 144/152 for 94.74% |
| Today's Pacafi: click here |
The Racing Horse Verdict1: STATLER 11/4 (1pt win) 2: Run Said Fred 9/4 (½pt win) |
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