ANTHEM NATIONAL 4.20 Newcastle at 5/4

 Play Coral Racing-Super-Series For Free Novice Stakes (Class 5) 7f14y 

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 2-7 for 29%           (10)     
National average: 20%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 16%             (10)        
RPR: 81                             (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)
Distance: 7f                        (10)
Jockey: Jack Mitchell               (10)
National Average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 17%             (10)
Trainer/jockey combination: 18%     (10)
Total:                             (100)
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Danger: Microburst

Best work at finish

Anthem National is a full brother to Darvel (RPR 84) and a half-brother to Full Verse (RPR 87), who won at 6f and 6.5f respectively. The 3yo colt made a debut full of promise when third over 6f here at Newcastle earlier in the month and, likely to improve for this step up in trip, he should take a lot of beating. He wasn't expected to win on debut going off at 8/1 and after fluffing the start was doing all his best work late beaten just a head and a short-head and would have won with a kinder trip or a few more strides!

Gave every indication...

We are reminded he was slowly away and then took a keen hold over the 6f but hit the post so hard he gave every indication this could be his trip. His sire and dam were sprint horses but note his full brother Darvel, whilst a 2yo winner over 6f, has been campaigned over 7f and 8f as a 3yo by Kevin Ryan. Anthem National acts on this track and the only horse to have previously run here.

Contenders

Microburst is a £75,000 yearling, Night of Thunder colt. Dam 6f winner (including at 2yo). Ticks plenty of the right boxes on paper and interesting to see what the market has to say. Murbih defied odds of 33/1 when an encouraging third on his introduction at Southwell and he certainly won't be underestimated this time. Interesting Murbih cost 125,000gns as a yearling but changed hands for just 7,000gns last summer - why was that?

Timeform

MURBIH was a cheap purchase as a 2-y-o, but he made a promising start to his career when third behind rivals with the benefit of previous experience over 6f at Southwell. That form was given a boost by the easy subsequent success of the runner-up and this step up in trip should help unlock improvement. Anthem National is the clear main danger ahead of newcomers Microburst and Run Teddy Run.

Value

With a couple of newcomers in the race we cannot be certain we have perceived value at 5/4, but the Pacafi was an unlucky loser on debut and looked the best horse in that race. Up a furlong looks likely to help and he acts on the course. Not best away on debut so a cleaner start needed. Has the highest RPR and will build on that figure today setting a decent standard at this time of the year.

Anthem National traded at a low of 3.00 and Betfair SP of 11.29 when losing last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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