FISHCAKE 1.55 Plumpton at 5/4

 Sky Sports Everyone Loves A Local Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Class 4) 2m4f114y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 2-2 for 100%          (10)     
National average: 24%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 29%             (10)        
RPR: NA                             (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Distance: 2m4f                      (10)
Jockey: Nico de Boinville           (10)
National Average: 22%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 22%             (10)
Trainer/jockey combination: 25%     (10)
Total:                             (100)
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Danger: Joyful Kit

Very weak race for this well bred

Fishcake will garner plenty of attention being a half-sister to the high-class chaser Monkfish and her debut in a Wincanton bumper wasn't devoid of promise. The step up in trip on her hurdling debut is likely to see her take a big step forward with the stable back in excellent form with the majority of their runners acquitting themselves well at Cheltenham.

Breeding

The sire of Fishcake was a winner of the 2m Queen's Vase and a second in the St Leger and a third in the Melbourne Cup. Her dam has produced Monkfish and Looks Like Power who have won multiple races over 3m, so the 1m7f bumper start was clearly a run for some experience. Whilst the dam did not win a race (3 second places) a win for this mare would be worth far more than tomorrow's £4,357 prize money!

Trainer form

The importance of trainer form is always our first consideration! All things considered Nicky Henderson did as well as expected at the Cheltenham Festival and has now won with his last 2 entries. At Plumpton over the past 5 years he scores 9-31 for 29% (+19.22). Nico is 445-1736 for 26% when he combines with Henderson scoring +2% above the trainer's national average. This is his only entry today and Nico de Boinville's only ride.

Nicky Henderson shows a profit of £44.02 to £1 level stakes when just one runner on the card.

Opposing trainers

It is also worth pointing out of the 4 opposing trainers, not one of them can be considered in top form. In price order, Toby Lawes is 0-6 for March though has a good national average of 16%. Kieran Burke (9%) is just 3 winners since October 21, Sarah Humphrey (8%) not had a winner since November 21 and Warren Greatrex (11%) is now 0-26.

Contenders

Joyful Kit showed modest form in bumpers in Ireland and has only reached a similar level over hurdles for current stable. Freshened up since a disappointing run in a Taunton handicap in January. Lady Wilbery is out of a winning hurdler/chaser so no big surprise that she left her 3 bumper runs behind when third on her Taunton hurdle debut 27 days ago, although the form is nothing special.

Timeform

This doesn't look a deep race so last month's Lingfield scorer EAVESDROPPING is taken to make light of a penalty. Monkfish's half-sister Fishcake didn't show that much in a bumper but is likely to do better now hurdling over a longer trip and is feared most.

Value

The 5/4 looks north of perceived value, it is our view the mare will start closer to 4/5 if all is well! We would not have taken on the Olly Murphy entry had that one stood its ground but this now looks a weak Class 4 Mares' Novices' Hurdle.

We do not know anything about the owners FB Racing Club other than they also own Stormy Ireland, who was the 7/2 favourite for the Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle and trained by Willie Mullin. We doubt this mare is comparable but we are not asking that. Given her proximity to Monkfish we are not sure how she was snapped up for just €25,000 so she might have had an issue. Henderson has given her 46 days to recover from her debut and we are almost certain she will leave that race behind.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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