BOLD REACTION 4.21 Kelso at 2/1

 Go North Jodami Series Final Open NHF (Class 2) 2m51y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 6-12 for 50%          (10)     
National average: 24%               (10)
Course Strike Rate (ALL): 43%       (10)        
RPR: 115                             (9)                          
Optimum Ground: Good to soft        (10)
Distance: 2m+                       (10)
Jockey: James Bowen                 (10)
National Average: 14%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 33%             (10)
Trainer/jockey combination: 20%     (10)
Total:                              (99)
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Danger: Ontherouge

Tanked through the race

Bold Reaction won an Irish point over 3m in October (second run) proving he will stay every yard of today's 2m and will hit the line hard. On his first Irish point run he was racing up with American Mike for a long way before falling. On his rules debut for the Henderson stable he was made the 5/4 favourite (from 2/1 and bigger), then tanked through the race as if an easy winner, only to find a previous winner a short-head too strong (pair pulled clear). The fourth that day has since scored over hurdles, giving the form a solid look. This Pacafi is open to any amount of improvement and the fact the trainer has sent this one to Kelso for a 350-mile trip (7 hours) speaks volumes!

Trainer form

Nicky Henderson has his horses in fabulous form, from his last 12 runners 6 have won. He does not send too many horses to Kelso but when he does they win or go close showing 13-30 for 43% (+0.65). We believe this is his first NHF runner at this course. Jockey James Bowen is currently in sparkling form, the last 14 days shows 6-24 for 25% but he also rides Kelso well with figures 4-12 for 33% (+16.21). His combination with the trainer is better than solid for a 20% strike rate so 6% above his national average.

Contenders

 The main danger looks to be Ontherouge and we have placed a straight-forecast saver at 9.23 with Bet365. He is from the family of the high-class Clever Cookie and made a big impression when scoring by 17 lengths on his debut at Sedgefield. Ain't No Sunshine and Eloi Du Puy are closely matched on their course and distance clash last month.

Timeform

 Point-winner BOLD REACTION was just denied on Rules debut and the fourth has boosted the form subsequently, so he's fancied to set the record straight despite the presence of Ontherouge, who made all in bloodless fashion at Sedgefield first time out. Summergrounds is one of several others with feasible claims in a hot race.

Value

The 2/1 looks to be north of perceived value, on the exchange much bigger prices are available albeit to small money.

Mother Earth 3.41 Curragh at 1/2 is also a Pacafi.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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