TRUE ACCOLADE 4.00 Windsor at 6/4

 Cazoo Novice Stakes (Class 5) 1m2f

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 3-10 for 30%          (10)     
National average: 28%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 31%             (10)        
RPR: 83                             (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Good/standard       (10)
Jockey: William Buick               (10)
National Average: 21%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 31%             (10)
Trainer/jockey combination: 30%     (10)
Total:                             (100)
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Danger: Salvator Mundi

Godophin Comments

Fourth foal; half-brother to winners Lackeen (Listed-placed 7f-1m RPR 97) and Final Applause (1m AW 2yo; 81); dam fourth over 9.7f in France (67), closely related to 1m 2yo Group 1 winner Ultra, half-sister to 12.5f Group 3 winner Synopsis; finished third on debut over 1m2f at Kempton.

Conditions to suit

True Accolade was sent off favourite on his debut, when beaten 3 lengths by smart prospect Surrey Mist. Charlie Appleby's charge was green and very keen early, but raced prominently before tiring inside the final furlong yet not knocked about. The drop back in trip will suit as will the turf, while the experience should stand him in good stead too, so he is taken to break his duck at the second time of asking.

Trainer form

Charlie Appleby has a national average of 28% and his recent form shows 3-10 for 30%. The trainer does not send many horses to Windsor, but of those he does he scores 4-13 for 31% over the past 5 years. His combination with William Buick is the best in the business at 187-631 for a massive 30%. Appleby has made a great start again this year and shows the following results in the UK:

April:    1-2  for 50%
March:    6-20 for 30%
February: 5-19 for 26%
January:  7-15 for 47% 
Total:   19-56 for 34%

Contenders

Salvator Mundi finished a place behind the selection that day, but it was encouraging nonetheless and he is respected for powerful connections and is the main danger. Simon and Ed Crisford saddle Sooghan, who looks the part on paper, and he is one of a few interesting newcomers.

Timeform

SALVATOR MUNDI shaped well when keeping on late into fourth under hand riding at Kempton and this son of Galileo is fancied to take a sizeable step forward now and fend off True Accolade, who also went with some promise when finishing one place ahead of him there and rates a big threat. Newcomer Sooghan catches the eye on paper and is another worth considering, especially if the market speaks in his favour.

Value

The 6/4 looks to contain perceived value if the Pacafi enjoys the turf Windsor surface tomorrow. We believe he will...

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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