The Racing Horse offers our RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for the Aintree Festival for Saturday 9 April 2022 (Numbers include Thursday's results only). There is a 7-race card and the going is expected to be good to soft.

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 years)    HANDICAP RACES (5 years)
Hurdle	25-56 for 45% (-3.53)	19-53  for 36% (+12.47)
Chase	13-30 for 43% (+0.45)	21-72  for 29%	(+4.45)
NHF	6-21  for 29% (-1.88)	0-0	
TOTAL  44-107 for 41% (-4.95)	40-125 for 32% (+16.92)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Aintree (last 5 years)       +/-   E
D Skelton (19%)   23-140  16%	(+55.55)       -3%   6  
N Henderson (24%) 18-101  18%	(-41.00)       -6%   4   
P Nicholls (23%)  13-102  13%	(-29.96)      -10%   3   
A King (15%)       7-44   16%	(+7.87)        +1%   4   
N T-Davies (14%)   7-75    9%	(-41.50)       -5%   3   

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Aintree (last 5 years)        +/-   R    
H Skelton (22%)       21-116   18%  (+72.75)   -4%   6 
A Coleman (18%)       11-71    15%  (-13.50)   -3%   3 
S T-Davies (16%)      11-77    14%   (-8.54)   -2%   3 
N de Boinville (22%)  10-55    18%  (-25.50)   -4%   3  
S Bowen (16%)          9-68    14%  (-41.25)   -2%   3

TOP 5 OWNERS at Aintree (last 5 years)         +/-   E
J P McManus (17%)   12-94  13%  (-25.73)       -4%  11  
T Hemmings (15%)     9-48  19%	 (+7.80)       +4%   0   
Munir & Souede (21%) 8-44  18%	 (-8.20)       -3%   5  
Gigginstown (10%)    5-49  10%	 (-7.50)       +0%   5   
P & C Rooney (23%)   4-16  25%	 (+2.94)       +2%   0  

Fixtures
Saturday 9 April 2022

FAVOURITES: Because of the small sample size, this section of the template does not help us too much. Over the past 5 years we know winning favourites at this course show 84-232 for 36% and a small level stake profit of +£11.97. Despite a higher strike rate of winning favourites in non-handicaps at 41%, they show a loss to SP, whilst the handicap favourites at 32% show a profit of +£16.92. We believe all numbers have value/significance, but on this occasion will not take them too seriously.

TRAINERS: Our top trainer leader board looks the natural starting point regarding tomorrow's racing, and the top five have 20 entries between them, one would expect multiple winners from this grouping.

IRISH TRAINERS: Looking at the top Irish trainers we note their entries and numbers which include W P Mullins 7, Gordon Elliott 9 (7 in the Grand National), and Henry De Bromhead 2. From these 18 entries both logic and maths suggests winners and we think one of those races is the Grand National!

JOCKEYS: Our leader board looks to support the comments regarding the top trainer's entries. The top five jockeys have 18 rides between them, one would expect multiple winners from this grouping.

OWNERS: J P McManus has 13 runners for this Saturday's meeting - an incredible number of runners and one must assume he goes home with at least one prize, and given the nature of this meeting could have a winner at a big price? The market place suggest GENTLEMAN DE MEE 3.00 & CHAMP 3.30 are his most likeliest winners...

Munir & Souede have 5 entries and so does Gigginstown, so this pairing really ought to score also!

***

PERTINENCE:

1.45: EFT Construction Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 3m149y

Winning Profile: Aged 6-8yo, carrying between 10st 9lbs & 11st 6lbs, having at least 4 runs over hurdles with at least 2 wins, rated 137 or higher.

WINTER FOG (E Mullins) beaten favourite last time out, Paul Townend rides and is 45% on hurdling favourites
FLASH THE STEEL (D Skelton) weighted to win 141 > 132, Harry Skelton rides
REMASTERED (D Pipe) trainer has won 3 of the last 10 running, Tom Scudamore rides

2.25: Betway Mersey Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m4f

Winning Profile: Aged 5 or 6yo, with at least 3 runs over hurdles plus a win, rated 148 or higher, with at least 3 runs that season, with a win.

CAPTAIN CONBY (E Sheehy) beaten favourite last time out, trainer shows a profit of £104.75 when one runner on the card (hurdles)
GREAT HEART'JAC (F O'Brien) beaten favourite last time out, Paddy Brennan
NORTH LODGE (A King) beaten favourite last time out, Adrian Heskin rides
WALKING ON AIR (N Henderson) trainer has won 2 of the last 10 runnings

3.00: Poundland Maghull Novices' Chase (Grade 1)  (Mildmay) 1m7f176y

Winning Profile: Aged between 6-8yo, ran within 42 days, with at least 3 previous chase runs and rated 143 or higher with at least 3 runs that season.

EDWARDSTONE (A King) jockey Tom Cannon is 35% on chase favourites
GENTLEMAN DE MEE (W P Mullins) trainer 33% with chasers up to 2m3f, Mark Walsh rides

3.35: JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m149y

Winning Profile: Aged between 6-8yo, ran within the last 41 days and recorded at least 3 wins over hurdles rated 159 or higher. Winning in a grade 1-3 race with at least 1 win that season.

MOLLY OLLYS WISHES (D Skelton) beaten favourite last time out, Harry Skelton rides
SIRE DU BERLAIS (G Elliott) beaten favourite last time out, Mark Walsh rides
CHAMP (N Henderson) trainer has won 2 of the last 10 runnings

4.15: Betway Handicap Chase (Grade 3)  (Mildmay) 3m210y 

Winning Profile: Carrying 10st 4lbs & 11st 3lbs running within the last 35 days, at least 1 previous win over hurdles, with at least 3 runs that season.

SHAN BLUE (D Skelton) jockey Harry Skelton 36% on chase favourites
CAP DU NORD (C Williams) trainer shows profit of £21.83 when one runner on the card and 23% in the spring, Jack Tudor rides
ESPOIR DE ROMAY (K Bailey) beaten favourite last time out, David Bass rides
EXELERATOR EXPRESS (N Mulholland) beaten favourite last time out, Sam Twiston-Davies rides
SCENE NOT HERD (C Longsdon) beaten favourite last time out, Jonathan Burke rides
ESPOIR DE TEILEE (T R George) weighted to win 142 > 139, first time tongue strap, Tom Scudamore rides

5.15: Randox Grand National Chase (Grade 3) 4m2f74y

 Winning Profile: Aged between 8 & 10yo, preferably weighted between 10st 3lbs & 11st 5lbs with a previous run at Aintree. They would have at least 7 runs over 3m or longer and at least 7 runs over hurdles with at least 2 wins. Also at least 10 previous chase runs and rated 146-160. Would have ran at least 3 times that season

ESCARIA TEN (G Elliott) trainer has won 2 of the last 3 runnings, Adrian Heskin rides
ANY SECOND NOW (T M Walsh) jockey Mark Walsh 35% on chase favourites
BURROWS SAINT (W P Mullins) beaten favourite last time out, Paul Townend rides
FIDDLERONTHEROOF (C Tizzard) beaten favourite last time out, Brendan Powell rides
LONGHOUSE POET (M Brassil) beaten favourite last time out
RUN WILD FRED (G Elliott) beaten favourite last time out, trainer has won 2 of the last 3 runnings, Davy Russell rides
SCHOOL BOY HOURS (N Meade) beaten favourite last time out

6.20: Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) 2m209y

Winning Profile: Aged 5 or 6yo with at least 2 NHF runs and at least 1 NHF win and rated 118 or higher

RATH GAUL BOY (Patrick Mullins) & HOULANBATORECHAIS (Paul Townend) for trainer W P Mullin who is 30% with bumpers racing 2m to 2m1f and 24% in spring
HENRY THE SECOND (P Nicholls) trainer has won the last 2 runnings, Harry Cobden rides
LEAVE OF ABSENCE (C Gordon) winner in the last 7 days, Joshua Moore rides