BELIEVING 2.40 Wolverhampton at 8/11

At The Races App Market Movers Fillies' Novice Stakes (Class 5) 6f20y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 8-31 for 26%          (10)    
National average: 18%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 16%             (10)                                     
RPR: 96                             (10)  
Distance: 6f                        (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Fast/Standard       (10)
Jockey: James Doyle                 (10)
National Average: 20%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 15%             (10)                
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 27%           (10)           
Total:                             (100)
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Danger: Dragon Glory

Excellent debut considering traffic and bumping

Believing (foaled 22 Feb) was surprisingly big in the market at 12/1 considering she was representing last year's winning connections. She kept on with some purpose after encountering lots of traffic problems over 1f out and looks a promising type. She might not have beaten the winner (potentially a top class rival) with a clear run, but she would have certainly have finished a lot closer and will take a fair bit of beating next time with this experience behind her.

She posted a RPR of 96 for that run and any rival tomorrow will have to beat at least that number because she is bound to step forward again. The debut run was in a Class 4 Novice at Newmarket whilst tomorrow is a Class 5 Novice at Wolverhampton and we doubt there is a Mawj in that race!

Trainer form

George Boughey has his horses in good form with the last 14 days showing 8-31 for 26%, his national average is 18%. There is a negative in that the stable are just 1-29 with 2yos this spring but we have easily set aside that number on this occasion. At the course the trainer shows 19-120 for 16% (-8.69) but the jockey booking is significant, they combine to score 8-30 for 27% (+16.23). James Doyle is a 20% jockey and has ridden 134 winners at the track and a fabulous top class jockey.

Contenders

Lady Nagin failed to fire on her racecourse bow but could find significant improvement for that experience, while Dragon Glory is arguably the pick of the newcomers and probably the main danger. She was foaled 19 April and an £82,000 yearling, Cotai Glory filly. Half-sister to useful winner up to 6f Shepherds Way.

 Timeform

   BELIEVING finished with a flourish when runner-up to a useful one starting out at Newmarket last week, and with that experience unlikely to be lost on her, she can get off the mark. Archie Watson unleashed a good 2-y-o at the weekend and Dragon Glory makes a fair bit of appeal on paper.

Value

The Pacafi looks more a 4/7 shot than an 8/11, we just need a good paddock and trip to post.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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