POSITIVE IMPACT 3.35 Brighton at 4/6

bet365 Maiden Stakes (Class 5) 6f210y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form UK: 1-10 for 10%        (9)  
National average: 19%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 43%             (10)                                     
OR & RPR: 86 & 94                   (10)  
Distance: 7f to 1m                  (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Jockey: Ross Coakley                (10)
National Average: 13%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 0%               (8)*                                           
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 24%           (10)           
Total:                              (97)
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Danger: Dukedom

Should have won last time out

Positive Impact was narrowly denied by a useful prospect in a Class 5 Novice event at Thirsk two weeks ago, but should have won! Jockey Harry Burns made two basic mistakes close to home which made for terrible viewing! He has another chance to break his maiden tag and is less exposed than his only rival and 8lbs better off had this been a handicap.

Conditions to suit

Today the 3yo Shamardal gelding runs in a weaker Class 5 and his ability to lead and kick on from the front should hold him in good stead in a race like this. Ross Coakley becomes the fourth different jockey in four races, something we doubt has helped and a poor piece of race planning. The jockey will need to run the fractions correctly. Positive Impact runs here instead of a competitive Novice race at Haydock on Friday.

Trainer & Jockey form

Trainer Simon Crisford could be in better form. June shows 4-36 for 11% and figures that do not look good compared to a national average of 19%. We have set that aside on this occasion partly due to the progressive profile to this charge and his Brighton figures that show 3-7 for 43% (+2.85). His combination with jockey Ross Coakley is particularly good also, showing 10-42 for 24% (-5.00) and way above the national averages of both trainer and jockey!

Another slight negative is the fact Coakley has not ridden a winner at Brighton albeit from just 7 attempts. That said, Rob Havlin (jockey of main rival) does not have the numbers we would expect for him at his course, in fact they are poor with 21-231 for just 9% (-92.56). He will want to ride a winner for the Queen and we can expect his best effort.

Contender

Dukedom is a fairly useful gelding. Was 2/1 and cheekpieces on for the first time when a good second of 13 in 7f maiden at Chelmsford City 21 days ago but now remains a maiden after 7 runs which must now be a concern. Rob Havlin rides.

 Timeform

  POSITIVE IMPACT brings much the best form to the table and is confidently expected to go one better than his recent excellent Thirsk second. Chelmsford City runner-up Dukedom should ensure the Crisfords' fairly useful gelding doesn't have things all his own way though in what essentially looks a match.

Value and the tactical nature

The 4/6 looks a little tight given the tactical nature of this race and the Ross Coakley v Rob Havlin element. If Coakley gets his fractions right the Pacafi must surely win, even factoring the couple of negatives contained with the wager.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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