TERRIMIA 2.40 Yarmouth at 4/7

 British Stallion Studs EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 5) 5f42y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form UK: 6-20 for 30%       (10)  
National average: 18%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 7%               (8)                                     
RPR: 90                             (10)  
Distance: 5f+                       (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Good, good to firm  (10)
Jockey: James Doyle                 (10)
National Average: 20%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 24%             (10)                                           
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 38%           (10)           
Total:                              (98)
.
Main Danger: Michaela's Bay
Alternative: Universi Dominici

 Clear edge over main rival

Terrimia was foaled 7 February and a half-sister to Bumbledom who won at 7f (68) and Tom's Reighn Beau. a 5yo winner as a 2yo and a RPR of 78. Despite showing signs of inexperience, Terrimia made the perfect start to her career when winning at Windsor last month at 15/2 over 5f on good to firm ground and Sean Woods' filly is given a clear edge over her rivals, she is hard to oppose with improvement on the way.  

Optimum trip looks to be 6f

At 15/2 she didn't go unbacked ahead of her introduction and came home strongly to run down the already twice-placed runner-up. She won despite the trip and looks the type that will take a big step forward when tackling 6f. James Doyle rode her for her debut win and knowing she will hit the line hard will probably make plenty use of her and Doyle might want to make all!

Trainer form

Trainer Sean Woods has quickly established a high national average of 18% and  has his horses particularly well, and June provided him with his best month yet scoring 6-20 for 30% (+7.09). Below we show his results for 2022.

July 2022	0-3	 0%    -3.00
June 2022	6-20	30%    +7.09
May 2022	6-25	24%    +6.33
April 2022	5-17	29%    +1.60
March 2022	3-9	33%    +1.12
February 2022	2-3	67%    +7.25
Total          22-77    29%   +26.39

These are impressive numbers and a trainer to follow. His 2yos show 4-14 for 29% (+8.98). At the course he is 1-8 for 13% with his 2yos though 1-15 for 7% overall. The top combination out of this stable is the one with jockey James Doyles showing a fabulous 9-24 for 38% (+22.59). Doyle has a national average of 20% and rides 19-80 for 24% (-0.49) at Yarmouth.

Contenders

Michaela's Boy made a winning debut at Windsor in April. Limitations exposed to an extent since but now fitted with blinkers and he really should be a factor at fi this level. Potential improver Universi Dominici is tipped to do best of the remainder.

 Timeform

Having made the perfect start in a 13-runner novice at Windsor 3 weeks ago, everything looks in place for TERRIMIA to follow up under a penalty. Michaela's Boy is more exposed and must concede 7 lb to the selection but is still second choice.

Value

The 4/7 looks north of perceived value in clearly what is a two-horse race! Her rival has an OR of 82 and something we find surprising though we are no experts on ratings. Our wager receives 7lbs from this one and that is our edge plus the magnificent form of trainer and jockey.

Terrimia traded at a high of 55.00 and Betfair SP of 13.03 when winning last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field.

PACAFI RESULTS for 2022.