NEWBURY RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Saturday 16 July 2022)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our NEWBURY RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Saturday 16 July 2022. There is a 6-race card and the going is expected to be good.

Newbury FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                    Handicap
2yo    51-153  33%   -40.69	7-16    44%    +1.74
3yo    36-98   37%   -12.16	39-122  32%    -6.03
4yo+   19-37   51%   +10.11	29-139  21%   -47.60
Total 106-288  37%   -42.75	75-277  27%   -51.89

TOP 5 TRAINERS at NEWBURY past 5 years       +/-   E 
R Hannon (12%)       50-411  12%   -17.58    +0%   8
W Haggas (23%)       40-173  23%    -1.80    +0%   3
J & T Gosden (21%)   34-156  22%   -19.89    +1%   0
A Balding (15%)      27-225  12%   +81.83    -3%   4
H & R Charlton (17%) 26-157  17%   +24.74    +0%   2

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at NEWBURY past 5 years        +/-   R
J Doyle (20%)	 42-199   21%   -6.13        +1%   3
O Murphy (19%)	 34-225   15%  -35.14        -4%   0
J Crowley (19%)  32-211   15%  +46.51        -4%   4
T Marquand (14%) 30-206   15%   +2.69        +1%   4
W Buick (22%)    26-133   20%   +3.77        -2%   0       

TOP 5 OWNERS at Newbury for past 5 years     +/-   E
Godolphin (24%)    24-106  23%  (-19.57)     -1%   2   
H Al Maktoum (21%) 17-102  17%  (+16.81)     -4%   0
K Abdullah (25%)   15-57   26%  (+13.60)     +1%   0  
Shadwell Est (22%)  9-48   19%  (+14.20)     -3%   2
King Power (14%)    9-73   12%  (-29.80)     -2%   1

Hot Trainers 16/06/2022 to 15/07/2022        +/-   E
R Varian (20%)     26-90   29%   -2.07       +9%   3
T Clover (12%)      7-28   25%  +19.02      +13%   1
W Haggas (23%)     24-98   25%   -9.09       +2%   3
S bin Suroor (21%) 11-49   22%   +9.87       +1%   1

Cold List Trainer   SAW   E
D Loughnane (11%)    41   1
H Candy	(11%)        16   1

Hot Jockeys 16/06/2022 to 15/07/2022         +/-   R
A Atzeni (16%)   16-45   36%   +5.49        +20%   3
P Cosgrave (13%) 11-54   20%   +9.98         +7%   1
J Mitchell (17%) 12-61   20%   +7.92         +3%   2
H Doyle (14%)    18-102  18%   +8.99         +4%   5

Cold List Jockey   SAW   R
J Doyle  (20%)      26   3
K Shoemark (11%)    22   3

Fixtures
Friday 15 July 2022
Saturday 16 July 2022
Thursday 21 July 2022
Friday 12 August 2022
Saturday 13 August 2022

(%) National Average  SAW Since a win
Friday's results not included...

FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Newbury for the past 5 years show 181-565 for 32.04% and a loss of -94.64 to level stakes. Best category albeit from a small sample is 4yo+ winning favourites in non-handicap scoring 19-37 for 51% (+10.11). Worst category by some distance is 4yo+ winning favourites in handicaps recording 29-139 for just 21% (-47.60)).

TRAINERS: Based on volume Richard Hannon is top trainer at the track, he has 8 runners at the track on Saturday and with those numbers one imagines him having at least 1 winner.

Please note J &T Gosden totals are combined with those of John Gosden for a 5 year figure, the same applies to H & R Charlton and Roger Charlton.

COLD LIST TRAINER: David Loughnane (11%) is a trainer to follow over the next week or so, he is currently 0-41 and we doubt he will reach much more than 50! From his last 4 runners he has recorded 2 second places, he is worth following from here, he has 1 runner today. Henry Candy (11%) is 0-18 over 42 days and that must be a worry for him. He has 1 runner today.

JOCKEYS: The 3 top jockeys at the course are James Doyle (20%), Jim Crowley (19%) and Tom Marquand (14%). They will surely be a winner or two from this trio.

HOT JOCKEYS: Hollie Doyle (14%) has 5 rides (3 of her last 6 rides have been winners), whilst red-hot jockey Andrea Atzeni has 3 rides (6 of his last 10 rides have been winners).

COLD LIST JOCKEYS:  James Doyle (20%) is now 0-26 and 4-44 for just 9% over the past 14 days, he will come off the cold list very soon and it could be today, he has 3 rides. At Newbury he beats his national average and has recorded 42-199 for 21% over the past 5 years. Kieran Shoemark (11%) is 0-22 and has 3 rides and one of those has a favourites chance.

OWNERS: Godolphin (24%) have 2 runners at Newbury on Saturday, they are MAN OF PROMISE 2.56 (C Appleby) and STUNNING BEAUTY 4.05 (Saeed bin Suroor).

Shadwell Estate (22%) also have 2 runners in MUTAANY 1.15 and MINZAAL 2.56 

King Power (14%) have 1 runner in CHIL CHIL 2.56 

2.56: HACKWOOD STAKES (Group 3) 6f: There are 10 horses who drop from Group 1 to Group 3, they are MINZAAL, CHIL CHIL, DILIGENT HARRY, GO BEARS GO, GREAT AMBASSADOR, HAPPY ROMANCE, MAN OF PROMISE, RUN TO FREEDOM, SAINT LAWRENCE and SAM MAXIMUS

BY THE WAY: Charlie Appleby's figures at Newbury are superb! He records 20-60 for 33% and a level stake profit of +11.99, he runs MAN OF PROMISE 2.56.

BY THE WAY 2: We have never liked the Richard Hannon business model, it appears he is only interested in precocious juveniles, and Newbury is a case in point. Here are his 5-year figures at Newbury:

2yo:  30-218 for 14%  (-9.33)
3yo:  16-131 for 12% (+26.14)
4yo+:  5-68  for  7% (-37.77)

Hannon has a national average of 12% but scores at 9% with horses 4yo+ so 25% down, and given the quality of horse he receives to train is poor. Today he runs 8 at Newbury and 6 of those are 2yos, they are HECTIC 1.15, AMOUR PROPRE, GALORE, LAND OF SUMMER, MIAMI GIRL & SWIFT ASSET 3.30. One of these must surely win but how would the owners feel regarding the 3.30? You not only have to beat your rivals from other stables but you have to beat your stablemates also? Who would have a horse with Richard Hannon? Ye Gods!

1.15
HECTIC (R Hannon) Top trainer at the track has won 2 of the last 6 runnings, Pat Dobbs rides
SAJWAAN (R Varian) 143 of Kodiac's progeny have won on debut, James Doyle
GLENFINNAN & LAHAB (I Balding) trainer shows profit of £42.05 with debutants, Rob Hornbby & Hollie Doyle ride respectively

1.50
CADILLAC (K P De Foy) beaten favourite last time out, formerly with J Harrington, Jack Mitchell rides
GROCER JACK (W Haggas) drops from Group 2 to Listed, trainer show 25% with horses running 10f+, Tom Marquand rides

2.21
WITHHOLD (H & R Charlton) C&D winner and won this race in 2019, first time visor replaces cheekpieces, James Doyle rides
ROCK EAGLE (R Beckett) too fee in the Ascot Stakes, back in trip so big player, Rob Hornby rides

2.56
HAPPY ROMANCE (Richard Hannon) Top trainer at the track has won 2 of the last 4 runnings, Sean Levey rides
MAN OF PROMISE (C Appleby) trainer is 33% at Newbury, James Doyle rides

12/12: Ran within last 28 days (100%)
12/12: At least 1 previous win over 6f (100%)
11/12: At least 2 previous runs that season (92%)
10/12: Rated 104 or higher (83%)
9/12: Aged 4yo or older (75%)

3.30
MIAMI GIRL (R Hannon) Top 
trainer at the track has won 4 of the last 10 runnings, Rossa Ryan rides
DARE TO HOPE (R Fahey) beaten favourite last time out, trainer has won 3 of the last 10 runnings, Oisin Orr rides
LAND OF SUMMER (R Hannon) Top trainer at the track, drops from Group 3 to Class 2, Hayley Turner rides
MARIA BRANWELL (D O'Meara) drops from Group 2 to Class 2, Kieran Shoemark rides

4.05
JULIA AUGUSTA (R Varian) trainer is 21% with handicap debutants, David Egan rides
STATE OCCASION (R Beckett) trainer has won 2 of the last 10 runnings, Rossa Ryan rides

JASON WEAVER - NEWBURY RACECOURSE

There aren’t many fairer courses than Newbury, which is big and galloping, but, probably due to the woodland on the far side, it can sometimes ride a good bit softer down the back straight than it does in the home straight. There’s very little draw bias on the straight track and there’s no wonder so many trainers want to send their classy horses there. The one tricky start is the one up in the spur (the round 1m) and that can prove draw-dependent. Otherwise, you get very few hard-luck stories at Newbury.

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