LIGHTNING APPROACH 3.45 Yarmouth at 4/6

 Quinnbet Quarterback Fillies' Novice Stakes (Class 5) 6f3y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form June: 3-8 for 38%      (10)  
National average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 15%             (10)                                     
RPR: 83                             (10)  
Distance: 6f-7f                     (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Jockey: Neil Callan                 (10)
National Average: 15%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 8%              (10)←                                         
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 18%           (10)           
Total:                             (100)
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Main Danger: Sun Magic

Has speed yet dam stayed so well, hard to beat!

Lightning Approach is a half-sister to Aim For The Stars who won at 1m1f so tomorrow's 6f looks at odds with her sister. The Pacafi is clearly a very promising type after winning a 6-runner minor event at Windsor over 6f on good to firm ground when 3/1 on her debut 52 days ago. She beat a fair rival that day and it is significant she showed so much speed given her dam stayed so well and this suggests she could be very useful. She must be hard to beat with lots more to come!

One to follow - James Tate

James Tate told us of his filly: "She is a home bred of Saeed Manana’s out a New Approach mare Bright Approach. She is actually from a staying family but you will see her starting off over six furlongs probably in April and she should be one to follow this year."

This is surely a two-horse race, one proven on the ground and distance and one who will hit the line hard, against a newcomer who has to score a high RPR in excess of 88 on debut to have a chance of winning!

Trainer Form

Trainer James Tate has his horses in good form, with 3 of his last 8 runners winning! At Yarmouth he records 6-39 for 15% (-10.38) whilst his combination with Neil Callan is 4-22 for 18% (-10.24) for past 5 years. His all time combination shows a very strong 31-150 for 21% (-28.83).

Jockey Form

All our boxes have been ticked though we recognise Neil Callan is just 8% at Yarmouth but that is from a small sample and this  jockey has proved his class all over the world and will understand the needs of this track and surface! Last Saturday the jockey rode a winning hat-trick at Haydock for three different trainers.

Contender

Sun Magic is an Invincible Spirit filly and a half-sister to smart 1m-1¼m winner Finest Sound, runner-up in Jebel Hatta. Dam is unraced. Bred to be no back number and yard can ready them and of course the market will tell us more.

 Timeform

  LIGHTNING APPROACH made a taking start when going in at Windsor and is taken to defy her 7 lb penalty at the chief expense of Kevin Ryan's debutante Sun Magic, who is worth monitoring in the betting. Tia Dalma appeals as the pick of the remainder.

Value

We missed the 8/11 available with Bet365 but feel 4/6 is just north of value given we have the unraced Kevin Ryan filly to beat. She will have to post a RPR in the high 80s or above to beat our Pacafi. We just need a good paddock and a trip to post... 

Lightning Approach traded at a high of 4.90 and Betfair SP of 5.87 when winning last time, a race in which it raced prominently and travelled strongly early on.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022.