LINGFIELD Racecourse Template
October 13th, 2025
PACAFI (2 August 2022)
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Trainer Form June: 11-36 for 31% (10)
National average: 23% (10)
Course Strike Rate: 100% (10)
RPR: 94 (10)
Distance: 7f+ (10)
Optimum Ground: Good (10)
Jockey: Tom Marquand (10)
National Average: 14% (10)
Course Strike Rate: 13% (10)
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 23% (10)
Total: (100)
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Main Danger: Elraaed
Alternative: Frequent Flyer
Lord Bertie a €500,000 purchase, showed immense promise when third of 12 at Newbury over 7f on good ground when relatively unfancied at 7/1 on debut 18 days ago. He was bumped at the start and set alight, then over raced and ran very green throughout, but still kept on inside the final 150 yds. He is almost certain to improve massively for the run on a course that should suit him.
There is rain about near Ffos Las and it is possible some of it could get into the surface, but that should not affect our Pacafi. His sire Wootton Bassett has won on very soft and his dam Bhageerathi won both her races on soft ground, she stayed 1m4f, so Lord Bertie is likely to be suited by a further sooner rather that later. He does look assured of hitting the line hard given the pedigree and the colt holds a Group 1 Derby entry. This Class 4 Maiden is not as strong as the Class 4 Novice at Newbury and for the main danger to beat our wager he will have to produce a RPR in the high 90s.
Trainer William Haggas sends just his third runner to Ffos Las, he is currently 2-2 for 100%. His horses are not only in fantastic shape currently but they have been since April, he is one of those trainers who does not seem to drift out of form or train over.
July: 24-87 for 28% June: 22-92 for 24% May: 25-76 for 33% April: 16-55 for 29%
The way he has handled Baaeed has been something else, and only Charlie Appleby and John Gosden can be considered better. The trainer runs 2 at different tracks today and will be looking for a win double. Tom Marquand's national average of 14% looks one or two points down on what it should be, but his combination with the trainer is excellent showing 202-855 for 24%.
The Dubawi colt Elraaed looks the main danger and he holds a Group 2 entry over 7f next month, the trip is more to his liking but faces a tough task on debut. Hard to nominate another danger as such but Frequent Flyer is just preferred to Manifested and Acotango for third place.
This looks a decent maiden and with a debut run under his belt, LORD BERTIE could be the answer. He shaped with promise amidst greenness when third in a Newbury novice 18 days ago and it's likely he can build on that. Elraaed, who makes appeal on paper/holds a Group-race entry is also of interest, along with Manifested and Acotango.
The 11/8 looks perceived value given he is going to improve massively from debut in a race that looks weaker!
Lord Bertie traded at a low of 6.40 and Betfair SP of 9.34 when losing last time, a race in which it raced prominently.
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