LINGFIELD Racecourse Template
October 13th, 2025
The Racing Horse offers our LINGFIELD AW RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Thursday22 June 2023. The[...]
KEMPTON RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Wednesday 3 August 2022)
Posted by in Blog
Leave a comment
|
The Racing Horse offers our powerful Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Wednesday 3 August 2022. There is a 7-race card containing 4 Handicaps and 4 Novice Races. The going is expected to be standard to slow.
With 4 Novice Races this looks a good meeting and we are not only looking forward to it, we are expecting to profit from the Template! There was 5 winning favourites from those 7 races yesterday and it could be another good evening for winning favourites again. 
Winning Favourites (5 Years) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo 117-284 41% -32.23 34-119 29% -17.59 3yo 125-260 48% -12.58 152-505 30% -71.99 4yo+ 45-115 39% -20.13 255-800 32% -53.46 TOTAL 287-659 44% -64.95 441-1424 31% -143.04 TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON for 2021 +/- E R Varian (20%) 17-54 31% (+15.08) +11% 5 A Balding (16%) 17-97 18% (+58.35) +2% 3 J & T Gosden (21%) 14-69 20% (-23.78) -1% 3 C Appleby (29%) 12-45 27% (-11.33) -2% 2 W Haggas (22%) 11-45 24% (-0.88) +2% 1 TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- E J & T Gosden (21%) 62-238 26% -25.75 +0% 3 A Balding (15%) 60-384 16% +50.74 +1% 3 R Varian (20%) 59-259 23% -10.53 +3% 5 R Hannon (12%) 56-552 10% -173.40 -2% 3 C Appleby (29%) 49-139 35% -21.06 +6% 2 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON for 2021 +/- R H Doyle (14%) 31-211 15% (-57.14) +1% 0 D Probert (12%) 24-192 13% (-4.56) +1% 6 O Murphy (19%) 23-91 25% (+1.43) +6% 0 R Kingscote (14%) 22-163 13% (-69.00) -1% 5 J Mitchell (16%) 18-109 17% (+21.45) +0% 0 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- R O Murphy (19%) 96-513 19% -80.41 +0% 0 D Probert (12%) 83-790 11% -143.74 -1% 6 H Doyle (14%) 80-589 14% -119.85 +0% 0 T Marquand (14%) 75-636 12% -98.25 -2% 0 A Kirby (15%) 69-529 13% -169.23 -2% 3 TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years +/- E Godolphin (24%) 86-310 28% (-61.02) +4% 2 Hamdan Al Maktoum (21%) 44-176 25% (+47.66) +4% 0 King Power (14%) 25-135 19% (-21.43) +5% 0 K Abdullah (25%) 21-89 24% (-3.97) -1% 0 Ahmed Al Maktoum (25%) 15-63 24% (-7.93) -1% 0 FIXTURES Wednesday 3 August 2022 Monday 8 August 2022 Wednesday 10 August 2022 Tuesday 16 August 2022 (%): National Average SAW: Since a winner E: Entries R: Rides Tuesday night results have been included...
FAVOURITES: The beauty of the Kempton Template is the sample size. It is our biggest aggregation and one we can trust (relatively speaking). Winning favourites at Kempton over the past 5 years show 728-2083 for 34.95% (-£207.99). Favourites in non-handicaps win at 44% whilst just 31% in handicaps. The best category for winning favourites at this course are 3yos in non-handicaps showing 125-260 for 48% (-12.58).
CHARLIE APPLEBY: The trainer must be followed at Kempton especially! We are reminded he often doubles-up in races here, and uses apprentices so just a modicum of filtration will enable a profit! He has a national average of 28% but beats that number on all of the AW courses. Check out his 5 year figures:
Chelmsford: 22-76 29% -26.68
Kempton: 49-139 35% -21.06
Lingfield: 21-68 31% -10.03
Newcastle: 16-45 36% +1.71
Southwell: 4-9 44% +1.93
Wolverhampton: 30-94 32% -18.05
Godolphin retain a strike rate of 28% at Kempton (against their national average of 24%) despite having multiple runners in a single race, where Saeed bin Suroor often opposes the runners of Charlie Appleby. Saeed's all time figures are strong at Kempton also showing 155-565 for 27% (+24.24). Our belief is the Godolphin strike rate of 28% should be considerably upgraded at this course. If we do not back a Godolphin runner we never oppose them at Kempton. John Gosden (22% at course all time) also runs Godolphin-owned runners at the course but his strike rate is less and leads to a dilution. Appleby has 2 runners on Wednesday in BORDER EDGE 5.50 & SILVER KNOTT 6.50.
TRAINERS: Charlie Appleby (29%) has 2 runners and almost certain to land a winner if not 2! He continues to be in fine form showing 20-66 for 30% in the past month.
Our other top trainers are involved at Kempton for this meeting. J & T Gosden (21%) have 3 entries, Roger Varian (20%) has 5 and William Haggas (23%) has 1 (23-73 for 32% in the last month).
Trainer George Boughey (18%) is on a losing run of 26 over 7 days, this is the first time he has appeared on any of our cold lists.
JOCKEYS: We have our top jockeys at track for this meeting. William Buick (22%) has 6 rides and will ride winners. He could not be in better form showing 30-104 for 29% in the last month.
Ryan Moore (18%) has 5 rides, Frankie Dettori has 3 whilst James Doyle (20%) has 5 rides, we talk a little about him below.
DOLDRUMS: Silvestre De Sousa (16%) is 23 rides without a winner over a period of 9 days. One to watch within the next few days, the losing run to be broken sooner rather than later.
OWNER: Only Godolphin (24%) from our leader board have runners at Kempton on Wednesday in BORDER EDGE 5.50 & SILVER KNOTT 6.50. At least 1 winner beckons!
BY THE WAY: We remind members of James Doyle's (20%) losing run of 44 before he rode a Pacafi winner for us last week - he has since gone another 16 rides without a winner. This means he is currently 1-60 for 1.67%. His July figures read 5-78 for 6% containing 16 second places which partially explains things. Now, in racing we never use the word due (or luck), but on this occasion we will use the word due in a contextual sense. He is going to have a flurry of winners sooner rather than later! He has 5 rides at Kempton on Wednesday, but it is worth making a note of his five good rides at Yarmouth on Thursday and six good rides at Newmarket on Saturday. We are playing those 11 rides in some form and expect to profit!
BY THE WAY 2: Frankie Dettori has rode 16-100 for 16% (-39.17) in the UK since 1st May. His national average is 23%. Just saying...
BY THE WAY 3: Paul (David) Evans is in his best form of his career, showing 14-47 for 29.8% and a level stake profit of +38.23 in the past month, his last 14 days show 10-21 for 48%. Worth reminding ourselves he is a trainer with a national average of just 10%. He cannot win a race today, but he takes 2 to Nottingham and 3 to Doncaster tomorrow. From those 5 he could score again, given the level of his form!
5.15
|
| JASON WEAVER on KEMPTON
The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics. |