POP THE CHAMPAGNE 1.07 Newton Abbot at 4/6

 Happy Birthday John Lane Novices' Hurdle (Class 3) 2m167y

 COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 2-3 for 67%           (10)  
National average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 25%             (10)                                 
OR & RPR: 111 & 117                 (10)  
Distance: 2m+                       (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Jockey: Paddy Brennan               (10)
National Average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 29%             (10)                                        
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 21%           (10)           
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Duesenberg
Alt: Olly's Folly

Has more in the tank despite her jumping!

Pop The Champion was a bumper winner who is going the right way over hurdles even though she fiddles lots of the hurdles rather than jump them. One consistent theme is she finds plenty at the business end. She completed her hat-trick in 3-runner novice at Stratford in a Class 3 Novice Hurdle over 2m on good ground. She looked to be in trouble when the runner-up loomed up alongside, but she proved very tough and game and saw him off on the run-in. That willing attitude will continue to stand her in good stead and this was despite her being unruly before the start. She is clearly progressive, tough and if she hurdles a little better must prove very hard to beat!

Will to win - Paddy Brennan

She has to concede weight to all of her rivals who have shown limited opposition to date and given she has more to give if needed, must be hard to beat! We are reminded of jockey Paddy Brennan's comments after winning her first hurdle race when he said: "Sometimes you need to jump to win, I didn't jump and I won, so Pop The Champagne has done really well. To be honest, it was her first proper hurdle race where she has been in amongst the thick of things, today almost felt like her first run over hurdles. Her will to win was really good."

Trainer form

Fergal O'Brien had a win double from just 2 runners on Thursday so remains in very good form. At Newton Abbot he shows 23-91 for 25% (+2.04) so a big 8% above his national average. His combination with Paddy Brennan is particularly strong, their all time partnership shows 388-1988 for 20% (-7.22) with the last 5 years scoring 232-1123 for 21%. At Newton Abbot jockey Paddy Brennan scores 16-55 for 29% (+0.34).

Contenders

Olly's Folly and Turpin Gold will fight for a place spot, we are not sure but the main danger might be the David Pipe trained Duesenberg. He wore a hood on hurdling/stable debut at Worcester over 2m on good ground last month and shaped with only limited promise in finishing sixth of ten, there is no headgear this time, but the stable might be hiding something from us. He was a fairly useful handicapper on the Flat (stays 1m) who was given a considerate introduction after 12 months off so entitled to do better, the market will tell us more.

 Timeform

    POP THE CHAMPAGNE is going the right way over hurdles, and this looks a good opportunity to complete the 4-timer. Duesenberg, Olly's Folly and Turpin Gold can battle it out for minor honours.

Value

Before considering staking we thought 8/11 to be perceived value and that should become available on the exchange. 

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022.