HAMISH 2.25 Ascot at 6/4

Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) 1m3f211y

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 3-10 for 30%          (10)
National average: 23%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 16%             (10)                                
RPR: 117 & 124                      (10)  
Distance: 1m4f+                     (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Good/soft to soft   (10)
Jockey: Pat Dobbs                   (10) 
National Average: 12%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 5%              (10) ←                                       
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 22%           (10)           
Total:                             (100)

Danger: High Definition
Alt: Cresta

Very smart gelding and now down in class

Hamish is a very smart gelding who is a winner of five races from 1m 2f to 1m 6f on ground varying from good to firm to soft and on the AW. He resumed with a stylish win in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester (13.4f) in May and better form when runner-up beaten ¾l by Kyprios in the Group 1 Irish Leger 3 weeks ago over 1m6f on yielding ground. He carries a 3lb penalty but the one to beat down in class with conditions to suit. 

Needs the word soft in the going title

After his win at Chester on good to soft ground Maureen Haggas told us: "Hamish has done really well because he was a little bit fresh and would have needed it. We haven't been on the grass at all because the ground has been so firm. He had the penalty as well. I walked the course and thought it couldn't be that bad with the rain yesterday and it's going to be better than York next week. I'd imagine he'd go for the Hardwicke, but we'll see because it all depends on the ground and if it's firm he won't be going anywhere. I think he's at his best on slower ground, like a lot of the family."

There is plenty of rain about as we go to post, and he should get the conditions he needs. We know Maureen will take him out otherwise, especially after his tendon injury.

Trainer Form

For the first time since March 2022 the trainer has dipped below 24% and his national average of 23% and is now currently 10-72 for 14% for September, but we note 3 of his last 10 runners have won. Pat Dobbs is an unusual jockey booking for the stable given their combination of 4-20 for 20% all time figures. The fact this top-class jockey is just 5% at Ascot is of little concern to us!

Contenders

High Definition has always been highly touted, and he looks to be the main danger over Cresta. The latter exceeded expectations when 5th in the Gordon Stakes and confirmed that form in no uncertain terms when a ready winner of a Listed race at Windsor last month. Deserves a shot at this level without winning.

 Timeform

HAMISH's sporadic appearances in recent seasons prevented him from reaching the top but he's still a very smart operator and is fancied to successfully concede weight all round at Group 3 level. High Definition is second choice on form, but he's been more than a little frustrating, so 3yo Cresta is offered as the chief threat.

Value

It was annoying to miss the 13/8 but 6/4 still looks north of perceived value. Rain is on the way, and we need that for our edge, but we expect the Pacafi to start closer to 5/4 than the 6/4 taken.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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